Recently, the draft of IPO issuance rules was released, and some of the above IPO reform measures have been reflected in it. It can be seen that the revision of IPO rules will undoubtedly become a powerful first step in IPO reform.
In the future, the above new rules will be continuously improved and finally put into practice, which will bring great changes to the new rules of new shares. Under the new regulations, what surprises are waiting for investors, and what risks need attention? How to improve the success rate of new share subscription in the future, and how to choose a good selling opportunity to bring more benefits to yourself?
The IPO restarted and the market basically returned to normal.
165438+1October 6, the CSRC announced the resumption of IPO. At the same time, a series of reform measures are put forward. Specifically, the CSRC has introduced a number of specific reform measures, such as canceling the prepayment system for new share subscription, canceling the inquiry link for small-cap stock issuance, adjusting some issuance conditions to information disclosure, establishing a diluted immediate return compensation mechanism, and establishing a sponsor institution's advance payment system.
According to the data, on July 4 this year, the CSRC announced that due to abnormal fluctuations in the stock market, 28 companies that have started IPO procedures have suspended their issuance. The suspension of IPO has made many investors and fund managers get their wishes, but it has also bought time for the CSRC, thus eliminating irregularities such as disrupting the market, rat warehouses and internal trading, and gradually returning the stock market to stability.
Professionals pointed out that the IPO restart was put on the agenda, indicating that the current A-share trading has basically returned to normal, on the right track, and the crisis mode is over. At the same time, the pace of reform has not stopped because of the drastic fluctuations in the market. Restarting IPO and further improving the reform of the new share issuance mechanism show that the reform of the capital market is still going on, with a firm pace and the right direction.
Regarding the impact of this IPO restart on the market, Galaxy Securities researcher pointed out that the IPO was suspended nine times in the history of A shares, and the ninth time is still not over. Looking at the trend alone, there is no obvious deviation in the number of market ups and downs after the first eight IPO restarts. If the trend changes, the mid-term observation shows that the market continues the previous trend after the IPO restart, that is, the issuance of new shares has not had a fundamental impact on the mid-term trend of the market. Therefore, from the historical experience, the impact of IPO on the market is more inclined to short-term fluctuations and will not change the medium-term trend of the market.
Solicit opinions on IPO rules and start the first step of reform
At present, the "innovation" of the first batch of new shares after IPO restart still has to be done according to the "old rules", but the gradual advancement of IPO reform has still become the focus of public attention.
A few days ago, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. jointly revised and published the Detailed Rules for Online Issuance of Initial Public Offerings and the Detailed Rules for Offline Issuance of Initial Public Offerings, and asked all institutions to give feedback before June 27th. 165438+. It is worth noting that the above IPO reform measures have been reflected in this exposure draft. It can be seen that the revision of the online and offline implementation rules of IPO issuance will undoubtedly become a powerful first step in IPO reform.
What's the purpose of restarting the old rules after buying first and paying later?
The new rules and regulations of this IPO point out that investors do not need to pay subscription funds when they subscribe. Investors will not fulfill the obligation of capital delivery before they subscribe for new shares and win lots.
For offline investors, when reporting the price and subscription quantity in the inquiry system of the exchange, there is no need to have funds before the subscription is recognized as valid and the funds are paid on time according to the allocated quantity.
For the case that investors "innovate" successfully but fail to pay in full and on time, the exposure draft stipulates that the subscribers' funds are insufficient to complete the fund settlement of new share subscription at 4 pm on T+3, which will be regarded as invalid subscription. In this regard, this part of the stock is underwritten by the lead underwriter. For the offline invalid subscription part, the placing share is also underwritten by the lead underwriter.
It is worth noting that before the revision of 20 14, IPO subscription also used the rule of subscription before payment.
According to the current IPO system, investors must pay the subscription funds in full when subscribing for new shares. When the subscription of new shares is very enthusiastic, the huge amount of new funds is frozen, which has a certain impact on the performance of the A-share secondary market while issuing new shares.
According to statistics, when 25 companies collectively issued shares in 2065438+early June 2005, the peak value of frozen funds was 5.69 trillion yuan. If the advance payment is cancelled, investors only need to pay 41400 million yuan of subscription funds.
Some professionals pointed out that the cancellation of advance payment can greatly reduce the amount of funds that investors need to use in the issuance of new shares, and the temporary decline in market liquidity caused by innovation will also be effectively alleviated.
As for the phenomenon of "paying back the money after winning the prize", the so-called "blacklist" system has also reappeared. The CSRC will establish a binding mechanism for online investors' subscription, stipulating that online investors who fail to pay in full three times in 12 months shall not participate in the subscription of new shares within six months.
Public offering of small-cap stocks cancels the inquiry link
Another focus of this IPO reform is to cancel the inquiry link of small-cap stocks. Gordon, spokesman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, once said that if there are less than 20 million shares publicly issued, the inquiry link will be cancelled, and the issuer and the lead underwriter will negotiate the pricing, simplify the procedures, improve the issuance efficiency and reduce the issuance cost of SMEs. The market believes that the cancellation of inquiry in the public offering of small-cap stocks is an important signal of over-registration.
However, this reform measure was not included in the draft for comment, and only made a statement that "for the issue price determined by the issuer and the lead underwriter through direct pricing, all the shares publicly issued by the issuer are directly priced and issued to online investors, and offline issuance will no longer be arranged".
We have noticed that the reform measures to cancel the inquiry link of small-cap stocks have also triggered many debates in the market. Some professionals said that this move will "simplify the pricing procedure of small-cap stocks, improve the issuance efficiency of small-cap stocks, reduce the issuance cost of small and medium-sized enterprises, be conducive to the listing development of small and medium-sized enterprises and increase the supply of small-cap stocks in the market." However, it has also been pointed out that this move means that the pricing ceiling of 23 times P/E ratio may be broken, the valuation of small-cap IPO will be determined by the market, and the degree of its low valuation may be greatly weakened. The most direct sign is that new shares are at risk of breaking.
In this regard, the relevant regulatory authorities also said that the cancellation of the price limit of small-cap stocks should also be based on the premise of low-priced issuance.
The supervision of intermediaries has been further clarified.
The five major reform measures of IPO clearly stipulate that the supervision of intermediaries should be strengthened and the responsibilities of intermediaries should be implemented. In this draft of IPO rules for comments, it is also obvious that intermediaries such as securities companies have irregularities in the issuance process.
The exposure draft stipulates that if a securities company accepts the full authorization of investors to purchase new shares on its behalf, the securities company shall bear the relevant responsibilities. Settlement participants who violate the relevant provisions of these Rules may take corresponding self-discipline management measures according to the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Self-discipline Management Measures of Participating Institutions in Securities Registration and Settlement Business.
It is worth noting that these provisions are added on the basis of the revised IPO implementation rules of 20 14, which provides a clear basis for the handling of intermediary institutions' violations. In the future, with the continuous advancement of reform, the relevant rules are expected to be further clarified and the issuance of new shares will be further standardized.
Under the new rules, there are both surprises and risks.
It is reported that the new IPO regulations are expected to be implemented on 20 16. This also means that from next year, investors will use new rules when making new investments.
It can be seen that the most direct impact of this IPO reform on investors is the change of payment system. Under the new system of pre-subscription and post-payment, investors don't have to sell old stocks in order to participate in innovation, but can wait until the lottery results come out. In addition, it is no longer easy to freeze the past trillions or trillions of funds, and the blood-sucking effect of the secondary market caused by the issuance of new shares will become history, which is undoubtedly the gospel of investors.
However, despite many surprises, the new system also worries many investors. Because there is no need to pay in advance, the new team will grow significantly. With the arrival of the "new era of the whole people", there will be insufficient porridge to eat, and the winning rate will be further reduced. CICC research department estimates that after the implementation of the new regulations, the median online winning rate may be about 0.0 1~0.02%, while the offline allocation ratio is about 0.0 1%.
In this case, the choice of new shares is more important. Professionals pointed out that when more than two new shares are issued online at the same time, unpopular stocks should be given priority, and the chances of winning the lottery may be higher. In addition, investors can concentrate on attacking a new stock. If three new shares are issued at the same time, Man Cang should be selected for subscription to improve the winning rate. Choose a reasonable order time. It is best to choose the middle period to buy, which is also an effective means to improve the winning rate.
In addition, the detailed rules stipulate that money must be paid on the day when the lottery results are announced. Therefore, investors should bear in mind that they should check the stock account on the day when the winning results are announced. If you win the lottery at 4 pm, make sure you have enough subscription funds to avoid being considered as giving up the subscription and missing the chance of winning the new shares. Especially in the early stage of the change of new rules, investors need to fully understand and prepare for the new subscription process.
At the same time, CICC analysts pointed out that the new regulations are generally beneficial to online investors. For offline investors, it has gradually declined. On the one hand, under the new regulations, at least 1/4 companies will issue new shares by pricing, and investors under these new shares cannot participate; On the other hand, with the change of payment method, the era of scale division will come to an end completely. The investment strategy that is more suitable for offline investors is "breaking the whole into parts", which splits the previous tens of billions of new funds into several small-scale fund products to participate in innovation.
In addition, the selling point of new shares is also an important factor to achieve high yield. Professionals pointed out that under the new regulations, some institutions are less likely to grab enough chips for some good-quality stocks on the same day, and the trend of several trading days after listing may become an opportunity to observe whether there are large-scale interventions by institutions. Therefore, small and medium-sized investors who have won the lottery should change the habit of throwing out on the first day of listing after winning the lottery. For new shares with good quality and good trend, you can observe them for a few more days and look for opportunities.
For the huge amount of new funds, the existing prepayment system for new share subscription will be cancelled, and payment will be made after the number of placements is determined.
For offline investors, they can also pay the funds on time according to the allocated amount after the subscription is valid and distributed. On the subscription date, investors are required to pay the subscription amount in full according to the issue price and subscription quantity specified in the issuer's issuance announcement.
Investors who participate in offline issuance with valid quotations should pay on the day of online subscription.
T+ 1 announces the winning rate, T+2 announces the winning rate, T+2 announces the winning rate, draws lots according to the total number of people and the winning rate, and announces the winning results on T+3.
The detailed rules point out that the issue price is determined by direct pricing through independent negotiation between the issuer and the lead underwriter, and all the shares publicly issued by the issuer are directly priced and issued to online investors, and offline issuance is not arranged. The direct pricing method is not explained.
Investors who participate in online subscription of new shares on the Growth Enterprise Market shall meet the requirements of China Securities Regulatory Commission and Shenzhen Stock Exchange on the appropriateness management of investors on the Growth Enterprise Market. Securities companies shall take timely measures to correct the behaviors that do not meet the relevant requirements but participate in the subscription of new shares. The requirements for investors who participate in the subscription of GEM are not clearly stated.
The detailed rules clearly stipulate that if a securities company accepts the full authorization of investors to purchase new shares on its behalf, the securities company shall bear the relevant responsibilities;
Settlement participants who violate these rules may take corresponding self-discipline management measures according to the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Self-discipline Management Measures of Participating Institutions in Securities Registration and Settlement Business.
If a securities company violates the provisions of these Detailed Rules, it will take self-discipline or disciplinary measures as appropriate according to the management rules for members of the stock exchange.
There is no clear explanation about the illegal handling of intermediaries.