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Lead: With the wave of electric vehicle industry, the power battery industry has risen rapidly, and the global industry pattern of Chinese, Japanese and Korean enterprises competing for hegemony has been formed. Panasonic, LG, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and other giants compete with each other.
Behind the surface calm, a new round of great changes is brewing-solid-state batteries are about to set off a new wave of technological changes, Japanese and Korean companies have returned to the China market after the white list of power batteries was removed, and global car companies and parts giants have also set foot in the battery industry, and a big change is about to be staged.
To this end, Che Dongxi launched a series of reports on "Great Changes in Power Batteries" to explain in detail the changes in the global power battery industry. This article is one of a series of reports.
"In 2025, the market size of in-vehicle power batteries will be seven times that of 20 18." In the middle of this year, Panasonic, the global power battery giant, gave its own forecast on the grand prospect of the power battery market.
According to TF Securities's forecast, in 2020, the global power battery market will reach 654.38+063.7 billion yuan; By 2025, the power battery market will climb to 500 billion yuan; In the long run, by 2030, the global power battery market may rise to a high level of 1.3 trillion yuan.
At the same time, according to the rough calculation of TF Securities data, the domestic power battery market will be close to 500 billion yuan in 2020-2030, and the China power battery market with a scale of 100 billion yuan has attracted many giants.
On the one hand, China Power Battery Company represented by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD. During the four years from 2065438+06 to 2065438+09, China's power battery industry grew rapidly, and the market layout and technical strength of domestic companies gradually increased.
On the other hand, it is a Japanese and Korean power battery army represented by Panasonic, Samsung SDI and LG Chem. Japanese and Korean giants, once rejected by the "white list of power batteries", have cut orders from many car companies while dominating overseas markets. At the same time, they are also gearing up in secret, preparing plans to return to the China market after the subsidies in the China market fall.
It is understood that the Japanese and Korean power battery forces, represented by Panasonic and LG Chem, have expanded their distribution in the China market since 20 17, and most of the projects will be put into production or realize capacity release in 2020/2021year. The power battery giants in Japan and South Korea are aiming at the node where domestic subsidies for new energy vehicles are completely withdrawn.
At the same time, in June, 2065438+2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced in advance the abolition of "Specifications and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry" and the list of four batches of enterprises, and the domestic power battery market officially lost its umbrella, and the pace of Japanese and Korean power battery giants returning to the China market is accelerating.
▲ The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the abolition of "Specifications and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry"
Since the rise of the wave of automatic power batteries, Japanese and Korean power battery companies have led almost every technological change. With the advantage of technology first, Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and other Japanese and Korean power battery companies have grown into industrial giants. The return of the giants to China is bound to have an impact on the power battery market in China.
However, the power battery industry in China has experienced four golden years from 20 16 to 20 19, and its technology, scale and market have also made great progress. The binding relationship between car companies and domestic power battery manufacturers is gradually taking shape. Can Japanese and Korean power battery companies really sweep the China market like the autumn wind?
Who is stronger in China, Japan and Korea power batteries?
Where will the power battery market in China go?
This paper attempts to answer the above questions from the development and changes experienced by the main participants of power batteries in China, Japan and South Korea in recent years.
1. Japan, South Korea and the Big Four increase China's market layout? The reappearance of the situation of "Three Kingdoms Killing"
At present, the domestic power battery market is at stake.
If the original plan remains unchanged, the domestic subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be completely withdrawn from the market from 2020.
The whole industry will change from "policy-led" to "market-led". In short, the domestic new energy automobile industry, which was previously protected by policies, will be exposed to the "firepower" of foreign-funded enterprises indiscriminately.
From the downstream new energy automobile industry to the upstream power battery and various core parts industries, no one is spared.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once issued "Specifications and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry" for the power battery industry, and supported four batches of qualified enterprises (commonly known as "white list of power batteries"). However, with the cancellation of these documents by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in June 2065438+2009, the white list became invalid. Japanese and Korean power battery companies that were once rejected from the "white list of power batteries" are increasing their market layout in China, and Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SKI Group and other Japanese and Korean power battery companies are ready to compete for the China market.
1, Japanese power battery enterprise: Panasonic
Matsushita, a Japanese power battery company, is the least affected by the "white list of power batteries" among all foreign power battery companies, and it is also the fastest growing foreign power battery company in China.
▲ Panasonic headquarters
In the early days, Panasonic was the exclusive supplier of Tesla. With the large number of new energy vehicles shipped by Tesla, most of the power batteries produced by Panasonic were supplied to Tesla.
In 20 13, after Panasonic signed an agreement with Tesla to expand the supply of power batteries, its own production capacity was tight, and the existing production line was running at full capacity, supplying Tesla with 18650 ternary lithium batteries. In the second year, Panasonic invested 2.7 billion yuan to build a Dalian factory with an annual production capacity of 5GWh, which was mainly used to supply square power batteries to Panasonic's foreign partners.
In Panasonic's customer list, the number of vehicle manufacturers and orders in China is small, and the restriction of "white list of power batteries" has limited impact on Panasonic.
However, with the development of China's new energy vehicle market, Panasonic began to increase its power battery business layout in China.
2065438+In May 2007, Panasonic, Jetstar New Energy Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Municipal Government jointly established Suzhou Power Battery Factory. The factory has been put into production in the second half of 20 17, with an annual output of 18650 batteries 1 100 million.
2065438+September 2008, Panasonic and Linked Tianyi jointly invested 20 billion yuan, and planned to build a power battery factory with a total production capacity of 30GWh in Jiangyin, Jiangsu. The project includes developing and manufacturing lithium-ion batteries and modules, power supply systems and energy storage systems for electric vehicles.
20 18 12 foreign media revealed that Panasonic will invest "hundreds of millions of dollars" in the Dalian plant that has been put into production, and increase the production capacity of the Dalian plant from 5GWh to 12GWh.
Behind a series of actions, Panasonic's influence in the power battery market in China has been greatly strengthened.
2. Korean battery companies: LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SKI Group.
The process of Korean power battery enterprises to expand the China market is relatively bumpy, including both preferential policies and geopolitical factors.
Like all foreign-funded power battery companies, Korean power battery companies LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SKI Group have not entered the list of "Specifications and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on 20 16.
If we continue to use the power batteries of the above three companies, automakers will lose huge subsidies for new energy vehicles and their profitability will drop sharply. At the same time, in 20 16, South Korea brazenly deployed the Sadr anti-missile system despite the warning of our government, and domestic anti-Korean sentiment was high.
Under the influence of double factors, domestic automobile manufacturers that had already started cooperation cancelled the orders of Korean power battery enterprises.
LG Chem built Nanjing Power Battery Factory in 20 14, which can supply power batteries for 50,000 pure electric vehicles every year. However, after losing the order from China, LG Chem was forced to sell the factory equipment and related intellectual property rights to Hengyuan New Energy, a subsidiary of Geely, on 20 17.
Coincidentally, the business of Samsung SDI and SKI in China was also frustrated around 20 17. The former stopped the construction of the second phase of Xi 'an Power Battery Factory, while the latter directly stopped production with BESK, a joint venture established by BAIC Electric Control and BAIC Group.
▲ Samsung Xi 'an Power Battery Factory
In the following nearly a year, Korean power battery enterprises stopped and almost withdrew from the China market.
However, with the decline of subsidies and the improvement of the market environment, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SKI Group have all re-started the layout of the power battery market in China.
On July 20 18, LG chemical battery project was signed and settled in Nanjing. The project includes three types of production lines: power battery, energy storage battery and small battery. The factory has planned 23 production lines for electrodes and batteries, and the power battery production line accounts for 16.
The project started in June 20 18, and the first phase of the project was completed and put into operation at the end of June 20 19, with an annual production capacity of 10 GWh.
According to LG Chem, the plant will fully release its production capacity in 2023, with an estimated total production capacity of 32GWh.
With the return of LG Chem to China market, Samsung SDI and SKI have also stepped up their layout in the power battery market in China.
On July 20 18, SKI announced the construction of a 7.5GWh power battery factory in Changzhou, Jiangsu. 20 10 in June, SKI announced an additional investment of 2.5 billion yuan to support the diaphragm production line of power battery factory.
At the end of 20 18, Samsung SDI restarted the second phase project of Xi 'an Power Battery Factory, which had been suspended for two years.
Korean power battery companies are accelerating their layout in China market bit by bit, with a production capacity close to 50GWh.
At present, the domestic power battery market is a bit like the "Three Kingdoms Kill" situation formed around 20 14 years ago, when the new energy boom rose in China, and Japanese and Korean power batteries collectively entered the China market.
However, this time is different. Domestic automobile manufacturers have basically completed the binding with large power battery suppliers, such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., BYD and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech.
Power battery products and vehicles need complicated customization, matching and verification, and production factors such as time, manpower and capital are indispensable. Whether vehicle manufacturers are willing to abandon the mature supply chain and bother to choose a "seemingly advanced" foreign power battery supplier still needs to be questioned.
What's more, in the cold winter of the automobile market, many vehicle companies are seeking to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the adaptation cost of a brand-new supplier's power battery is worth thinking twice.
Under this premise, will the return of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises really have a huge impact on the domestic power battery market?
Second, Japan and South Korea dominate the global power battery? Why did you lose the China market four years ago?
In order to face up to whether the return of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises will have a huge impact on the domestic power battery market, we need to correctly understand the deep background and strong strength of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises.
Thanks to the industrial dividend in the era of consumer electronics, the power battery industry in Japan and South Korea took the lead from the beginning.
Taking Japanese battery factory as an example, the industrial application scheme of lithium battery was first developed by Sony. In the last century, Sony, Panasonic and Sanyo, the three major battery factories in Japan, covered almost the entire consumer electronics industry in Japan, and also exported in large quantities. Their business scope expanded from consumer electronics to energy storage, automotive power batteries and other fields.
Sony, the former promoter of 18650 cycle lithium battery industrialization, missed the wave of power batteries and energy storage because of misjudging the potential of lithium batteries outside the field of consumer electronics, and then sold its lithium battery business to Murata, suddenly withdrawing from the battery market.
Sanyo, on the other hand, was gradually split and acquired due to overcapacity and lack of innovation in the foundry. Among them, three kinds of motors responsible for automobile power battery business were acquired by Panasonic in 2009.
Under the cruel elimination system in Japan, Panasonic became the only one of the three companies that survived. Through the early exploration of power battery and the absorption of Sanyo Electric, the power battery business has developed and become the representative of Japanese power battery enterprises.
In terms of technology, Panasonic inherited the scheme of 18650 cylindrical lithium battery, and also developed a new technical route of 2 1700 cylindrical lithium battery, which realized that the single capacity of power battery was increased by 35%, the energy density was increased by 20%, the system cost was reduced by 9%, and the system weight was reduced by 10%, further enhancing the competitiveness of products.
▲ Panasonic 2 1700 cylindrical lithium battery?
In addition, Panasonic has made great efforts to manufacture the cathode material of NCA system, and achieved the energy density of single battery of 340Wh/kg, equipped with Panasonic NCA2 1700? 3. At present, the comprehensive energy density of power battery pack has reached 153Wh/kg. In addition, Panasonic also cooperated with Shinetsu Chemical to develop a silicon-based anode system to further improve the energy density of NCA2 1700 cylindrical power battery.
You know, Panasonic has been supplying NCA2 1700 cylindrical power batteries to Tesla in batches since 20 17, while the contemporary NCM81KLOC-0/power batteries in China were mass-produced by contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. in 20 19, with a single energy density of 304 Wh.
This means that Panasonic is not only ahead of domestic power battery technology in the energy of power battery cells; In terms of mass production time, Panasonic is also two years earlier than its domestic counterparts. Two years is enough time for Panasonic to optimize the technical route of NCA2 1700 cylindrical power battery and realize low-cost and stable mass production.
In terms of production capacity laying, Panasonic has built eight factories in China, the United States and Japan, and it is expected that the production capacity will continue to be released in 2020, reaching 52GWh.
In terms of partners, Panasonic's cylindrical power batteries are almost all supplied to Tesla, while the square batteries produced by Dalian factory are mainly supplied to car companies in North America and Europe. At present, Panasonic's partners include well-known car companies such as Tesla, Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota and Mercedes-Benz, and the number of supporting models reached 58 in 20 18.
Although the shipment of Panasonic 20 18 is slightly lower than that of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., the largest power battery company in China, Panasonic is not backward in terms of technical route, capacity building and cooperative customers, but is ahead in all aspects.
Compared with the fierce competition in Japanese power battery industry, Korean power battery industry is relatively mild.
At present, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SKI, the three mainstream power battery companies in South Korea, have cut into the power battery industry from different fields, and their respective technical routes and layouts are also different. But overall, the mutual erosion of market share is not serious.
LG Chem is currently the largest supplier of flexible battery in the world. In 2000, the power battery research and development project was started, and around 2008, it cooperated with Hyundai Kia to officially start the commercialization process.
▲LG chemical soft package electricity?
In terms of technology, LG Chem has rich experience in developing chemical materials. In the initial stage of research and development of power battery, LG Chem established technical barriers of diaphragm and electrolyte technology, and cultivated a number of high-quality suppliers based on its own technology, which consolidated LG Chem's position in the power battery industry.
In addition, LG Chem, as one of the earliest companies to lay out soft-packed power batteries, covers most of the core patents of soft-packed batteries. In 20 19 years, the global market share of LG chemical flexible battery reached 16%, and there was a continuous growth trend.
In terms of production capacity, LG Chem has built four factories in China, South Korea, the United States and Europe, and the current production capacity has exceeded 23GWh. The company predicts that the production capacity will be expanded to 202 110 gwh.
With its huge production capacity and advanced power battery mass production technology, LG Chem has the ability to digest the orders of the world's top electric vehicle companies. At the end of 2065438+2009, Tesla announced the China factory model? The production line was put into mass production, and the second supplier first chose LG Chemical instead of China Power Battery Company.
In addition, LG Chem also cooperates with mainstream European, American and Korean car companies such as Hyundai, GM, Ford, Daimler and Volkswagen, mainly supporting 12 models, and the energy density of supporting batteries exceeds 200Wh/kg. According to the statistics of soochow securities, the shipment of LG chemical power battery was 7.4GWh in 20 18, and it exceeded 10GWh in 20 19.
Samsung SDI mainly promotes square power batteries and enters the power battery market almost at the same time as LG Chem. In 2008, Samsung SDI and car Tier? 1 bosch joint venture to establish power battery company SB? Limotive, start supplying power batteries to BMW.
▲ Bosch and Samsung SDI jointly established SB? Limotive
20 15 Samsung SDI acquires MSBS (magna? Steyr? Batteries? System? GmbH？ & amp？ Co？ OG), accelerated the process of global layout, and built three power battery factories in China, the United States and Hungary, with the production capacity also increased to 22GWh, which is very close to LG Chem.
In terms of technology, Samsung SDI unswervingly followed the NCM ternary lithium battery route, and gradually evolved from NCM523 to NCM622 and NCM8 1 1, and the energy density of the monomer increased from 130Wh/kg in 20 19 to 250Wh/.
In terms of cooperative car companies, Samsung SDI mainly cooperates with BMW, and other core customers are Volkswagen, Ma Hengda and Lucid? Motor, the supply model reaches 30+ model.
SKI's technical route is similar to Samsung SDI. Since 20 17, the company has increased the layout of power batteries, but the overall scale is still small. According to the data of Everbright Securities, in 20 18, the power battery capacity of Ski Group was only 3.9GWh, which was close to that of domestic second-tier power battery factories, with few supporting customers, mainly from Hyundai, BAIC, Daimler and other companies.
On the whole, Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises are very competitive in terms of technical strength, product strength and production capacity.
So, can Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises subvert China's power battery industry with these hard powers? The answer is not necessarily.
As early as 20 16, Japanese and Korean power battery companies tried to set up in China.
On 20 14, the power battery factories of Panasonic and LG Chem successively landed in Dalian and Nanjing, China. In the following two years, Samsung SDI factory landed in Xi 'an, China, and SKI set up a joint venture company BESK with Beijing Control and BAIC Group to produce power batteries.
So, what is the result of the first wave layout of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises? The answer is fiasco.
Japanese and Korean power battery companies entered China late, and the earliest LG Chem built its Nanjing factory on 20 14.
Before 20 16, Japan and South Korea's power batteries have not yet completed large-scale vehicle matching with automobile factories, and the shipment volume is low. According to the data of Hi-Tech Lithium Battery, nearly 80% of domestic power battery shipments in 20 15 were taken over by the top ten, all of which were domestic power battery enterprises, and the market share of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises was less than 2%.
At the time when Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises are about to be laid out in China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Specification and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry at the end of 20 15, and four qualified enterprises were listed one after another in 20 16 (commonly known as "white list of power batteries").
For the purpose of protecting the development of domestic power battery industry, Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises are not listed in the "white list of power batteries", which also means that the products of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises cannot enjoy the subsidy policy of domestic new energy vehicles, and Japanese and Korean power batteries are rejected.
In addition, geopolitical friction has become the last straw for Korean battery companies. In 20 16, the South Korean government deployed the Sadr anti-missile system, which greatly threatened the surrounding security and aroused domestic anti-Korean sentiment. At that time, the battery of Samsung SDI also exploded, which made Korean power battery enterprises struggling in China.
It was very difficult for Japanese and Korean power batteries to enter China in the last round.
Three, China power battery "golden four years"
Low market acceptance, policy protection and geopolitical friction have caused the first round layout of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises entering China to be hit hard, and also missed the golden period of China's new energy market development from 2065438+06 to 2065438+09.
During this golden period, the power battery industry in China experienced rapid growth.
Judging from the players' situation, the concentration trend of China's power battery industry is becoming more and more obvious, and the number of enterprises has decreased from 200+ in 20 16 to 60+ in 20 19.
▲ Changes in the number of enterprises in the domestic power battery industry in recent years
The industry has gradually formed an industrial structure with contemporary Ampere Technology and BYD as the first echelon and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, BIC Battery and Tianjin Li Shen Lamps as the second echelon. At the same time, the market share of the first echelon, especially the market share of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. continues to expand. On the contrary, the market space and player size of the second echelon tend to shrink further.
The whole industry is moving from barbaric growth to maturity.
From the perspective of technological evolution, the technological route of China power battery industry was switched from the early lithium ferrous phosphate route to the NCM ternary lithium route, and the technological iteration from NCM523 and NCM622 to NCM8 1 1 was completed within four years.
With the iteration of technology, the energy density of domestic power battery cells has also increased from 140Wh/kg in lithium ferrous phosphate era to 304Wh/kg in NCM81kloc-0/ternary lithium battery, and contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. has also become the first company in the world to mass-produce NCM81kloc-0/ternary lithium battery.
On the market side, due to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the power battery market is also rising.
▲ Changes in key indicators of domestic power battery industry in recent years
In 20 16, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 28.3GWh, and in 20 18, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries reached 56.9GWh, which was more than 100% higher than that in 20 16.
The output increased from 30.8GWh in 20 16 to 70.6GWh in 2018; The production capacity has increased from 90GWh in 20 16 to 260GWh in 20 18.
As can be seen from the above data, the domestic power battery market has grown substantially in recent years, but the gap between production capacity and loading capacity is getting bigger and bigger, which also reflects the phenomenon of out-of-order production capacity in China's power battery industry.
Another phenomenon that reflects the rapid development of the domestic power battery market is that, in addition to laying out the domestic market, some competitive power battery companies have also begun to receive orders from foreign car companies to lay out overseas markets. Among them, the power battery enterprises such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, Bicycle Battery, Funeng Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Xinwangda are typical.
It is understood that Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is the first power battery company in China to contact with foreign car companies. 20 12, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. reached a cooperation with BMW to provide power batteries for BMW. In 20 18, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and BMW officially signed an order of 4 billion euros (about 3 1 1 100 million yuan), becoming BMW's global power battery supplier.
The successful cooperation case between contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and BMW has brought a series of international car companies, including many well-known car companies such as Volkswagen, General Motors, Nissan, Honda and Daimler.
In addition, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has planned a 100GWh power battery factory in Germany, which is expected to be fully put into operation in 2026. Once the plant is completed, it will surpass the Nevada Super Factory (35GWh capacity) jointly invested by Panasonic and Tesla, and become the largest power battery factory in the world.
In addition to Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., since 20 18, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, BIC Battery, Funeng Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Xinwangda have also received supporting orders from overseas car companies.
For example, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech reached a cooperation agreement with Bosch in February 20 19 to provide lithium-ion batteries, modules and battery packs (parts and products). In addition, it also cooperates with Indian automobile group Tata to provide power batteries for its passenger cars and commercial vehicles.
In February, 20 18, Funeng Technology won orders for power batteries exceeding10 billion euros from Daimler. According to the agreement, Funeng Technology will provide Daimler with a total of 140GWh batteries from 2002 to 2027.
From the changes of industrial structure, technological breakthrough, market growth and export layout, the 20 16 -20 19 years that Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises were absent became the golden four years for the development of China power battery industry.
Fourth, China, Japan and South Korea power battery PK again? Who is stronger?
Then, on the one hand, China's power battery industry, which has developed at a high speed for four years, and on the other hand, Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises, which are located overseas and constantly break through in technology and production capacity, will meet again in the China market. Who is more competitive?
Che Dongxi sorted out the core competitiveness indicators of power battery enterprises in China, Japan and South Korea according to public information.
▲ Comparison of core competition indicators of power batteries between China and South Korea
From a technical point of view, Matsushita, a Japanese power battery company, still maintains a leading position. The energy density of NCA2 1700 cylindrical power battery developed by the company in cooperation with Tesla can reach 340Wh/kg.
At present, the energy density of this battery is ahead of the NCM8 1 1 power battery (304Wh/kg) of Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and the power battery product of LG Chem (253Wh/kg).
In addition, in terms of power battery cost, according to the information previously released by UBS, the cost of Panasonic power battery has dropped to 773 yuan/kWh, the cost of LG chemical power battery is around 1, 036,5438+0 yuan/kWh, and the cost of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. power battery is 1, 042 yuan/kWh. After calculating the proportion of BYD power battery cost in the whole vehicle and the charging amount of BYD Tang EV, it can be concluded that the cost of BYD power battery is about 1 100 yuan/kwh.
In terms of cost, Panasonic's advantages are not small.
However, in terms of shipments, cooperative customers, production capacity and supporting models, contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., as the industry leader, still has certain advantages compared with Panasonic and LG Chemical.
20 18, the shipment of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was 23.5GWh, ranking first in the world, followed by Panasonic with 20.7GWh, ranking second.
In terms of cooperative customers, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. cooperates with 15 major car companies in the world, with Panasonic having 12 car companies and LG Chem having 9 car companies.
In terms of supporting models, Panasonic 20 18 has 58 supporting models, and 20 19 is expected to have 70+ models. The main customer is Tesla. Since LG Chem increased its investment in power battery business in 2065438+07, it has been rapidly expanding car companies in Europe and America. At present, there are 9 main cooperative car companies with supporting models 12.
Commercial vehicles are included in the supporting vehicle data of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., so the number of supporting vehicles of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in the table greatly exceeds that of Panasonic and LG Chem, reaching 1000+.
According to Che Dongxi's prediction, this year, the supporting models of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will increase by a large margin. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is basically chosen as the power battery supplier of domestic joint venture car companies. This year, joint venture car companies will have a variety of electric vehicles listed.
Summed up by camp, Matsushita, a Japanese power battery company, has great technical advantages at present, and its low cost and high energy density of power batteries will provide it with strong competitiveness for entering the China market to develop its business.
However, at present, Panasonic is relatively conservative in capacity building and expanding customer channels. Soochow securities predicted that Panasonic's growth in the next few years may lag behind that of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and LG Chem.
At present, LG Chem, a Korean battery company, has few bright spots in terms of product strength and cooperative car companies, but the company plans to increase its production capacity to 1 10GWh in 2020-202/year. At the same time, LG Chem is rapidly expanding its cooperation with car companies. If we can coordinate the speed of capacity expansion and business expansion, LG Chem will probably become one of the fastest growing power battery companies in 2020 -2025.
Although the domestic power battery company Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is not as good as Panasonic in energy density and battery cost, there are a large number of cooperative car companies, which have reached power battery supply agreements with internationally renowned car companies such as Volkswagen and BMW, and also planned a 100 GWh power battery factory in Germany. With the expansion of mass production scale of power battery, the decline speed of its product cost will also accelerate. Not surprisingly, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will maintain high growth in the future, and the proportion of overseas business will continue to expand.
5. Japan and South Korea power batteries speed up the arrival? The living space of domestic second-tier manufacturers is compressed.
The layout of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises returning to China is very rapid, and their product strength and technical strength are close to or even exceed the domestic top level. However, after the "golden four years" development, the leading enterprises in the domestic power battery industry have been able to compete with Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises.
Then go back to the three questions at the beginning of the article:
1. Can Japanese and Korean power battery companies really sweep the China market like autumn leaves?
2. Who is stronger in China, Japan and Korea?
3. Where will the power battery market in China go?
The answer to the first question must be clear. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., a domestic power battery enterprise, is not completely backward in technology, production capacity and cooperative car enterprises. Even thanks to the domestic environment, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has obtained better customer resources than Panasonic and LG Chem, which can be seen from the fact that Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. ranks first in power battery shipments in recent years.
In addition, domestic power battery factories such as Yiwei Lithium Battery and Funeng Technology have also received large orders from internationally renowned car companies such as Daimler. With the cooperation with well-known car companies, these second-tier power battery companies are not without opportunities to turn over, and it is entirely possible for top domestic power battery companies to resist the invasion of Japanese and Korean power battery companies.
The second question is now answered. Japanese technology does dominate, but China and South Korea are developing faster. To put it simply, Matsushita, a Japanese power battery company, has the dominant technology and cost, but at present it has fewer partners and relies too much on Tesla. After Tesla was made in China, LG Chem was chosen as the second supplier, and Panasonic's position was immediately challenged.
At present, there are many competitive players in Korea, and LG has the strongest chemical strength. Its advantage lies in the in-depth industrial chain layout, numerous car companies and rapid capacity expansion. However, the growth momentum of the new energy vehicle market is limited after all. LG Chem plans to reach 1 10GWh capacity before 2020 1, so it is easy to fall into the situation of overcapacity.
However, the domestic product technology of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. is more competitive, and there are many car companies. But relatively speaking, its battery cost is relatively high, so follow-up measures need to be taken to reduce costs and increase efficiency, so that its products have an advantage in the competition with similar products of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises.
The third question, where will the power battery market in China go? According to the analysis of the article and the communication between the car and the industry, three trends can be drawn at present:
1. The living space of domestic second-tier power battery enterprises has been compressed, and the hard indicators such as products, costs and production capacity have been surpassed by Japanese and Korean power battery factories, which is likely to lose the current cooperative car enterprises and the second-tier power battery factories are facing the risk of being eliminated.
2. It will take some time for car companies and Japanese and Korean power battery companies to customize, match and test power batteries. This period will last about 1-2 years. In other words, the large-scale entry of Japanese and Korean power batteries into the domestic market will be around 202 1 year. Prior to this, it was a time window for domestic power battery enterprises to seek product strength breakthrough, reduce costs and improve productivity.
3. The high-quality products of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises will not cause a fatal blow to the domestic power battery market, on the contrary, it will promote the improvement of the overall product strength of the power battery industry, thus improving the cruising range and service life of domestic electric vehicles.
Therefore, from a global perspective, Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises still pose a great threat to the domestic power battery industry. However, after four years of development, domestic battery enterprises have mastered the core technology, and the product strength is enough to compete with international first-line battery factories. Therefore, there is no need to worry that Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises will overturn the "boat" of the domestic power battery industry when they enter China.
However, it should be noted that power battery enterprises in the middle and tail may be squeezed out in this round of reform. It is necessary to seize the window period before Japanese and Korean power batteries enter China, and form a bond with head car companies to ensure that they will not be eliminated.
Conclusion: Will Japanese and Korean power batteries return to China? Reproduce "Three Kingdoms Kill"
The return of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises to China has been predicted since before, and now it has become a reality. With the opening of the policy, Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises will only return to China faster and faster. Most of the power battery factories of Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SKI and other enterprises have landed in China and are in the stage of capacity climbing.
However, the facts behind the phenomenon are often not so alarmist, and the arrival of Japanese and Korean power batteries may not have a strong impact on the domestic power battery industry. At present, domestic enterprises such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD have the strength to compete with Panasonic and LG. In addition, some second-tier power battery companies are also seeking breakthrough opportunities through cooperation with foreign car companies.
But objectively speaking, the entry of Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises into China will indeed accelerate the process of shuffling the domestic power battery industry, make the domestic power battery industry transition to maturity more quickly, and enhance the product strength.
When Japanese and Korean power battery enterprises really start to mass-produce and sell power batteries in China, the industry is likely to reproduce the situation of "Three Kingdoms Kill" of power batteries 20 16 years ago.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.