When will the Palestinian-Israeli conflict subside?
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for a long time. Although the international community and political factions of the two countries have made efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement between the two sides before, the war between the two countries has rarely really subsided. Palestine and Israel are most likely to achieve a ceasefire, and the era of building mutual trust is the era when Sharon and Arafat are in power. Although the two sides still clashed from time to time at that time, relatively speaking, both of them were the most influential and powerful people in both countries. However, just as the two were preparing to achieve reconciliation between the two sides, Arafat died suddenly, and Sharon suffered a stroke and was unable to stand and was unconscious. Since then, the strength of both countries has entered a turbulent period. Abbas was defeated in the election soon after he took office, and the regime was seized by the radical organization Hamas; And the power struggle in Israel is becoming more and more fierce. It is speculated that the sudden resumption of the war was mainly due to the need of the election.
Now, Israel is using Hamas's constant rocket attacks as an excuse to bomb Palestinians. After the attack, Hamas claimed that it would continue to wage jihad and retaliate against the Israelis. Israel also insisted on solving the problem by force, continued to send more troops, bombed Palestine, and prepared to use its army to launch a ground war. Although the international community kept calling for a ceasefire between the two sides at this time, people in the Arab world and Muslim countries gathered against Israel, but the Israeli side showed no signs of stopping. After all, for the upcoming Israeli general election, whether for the ruling Kadima Party or the opposition Likud Group, attacking Hamas is the most effective means to win the hearts of the people, and it is a good "business" that only makes money without losing money. At the same time, the power vacuum in the United States at the moment may be the best opportunity for Israelis to attack Hamas. As for other big countries, such as the European Union, Russia or the United Nations, they are all trying to avoid offending either side, and they just pay lip service to Israel, which has no effect. From this perspective, it is very unlikely that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will stop in the short term.
Why is the conflict between India and Pakistan renewed?
There have been few military conflicts between India and Pakistan since the cease-fire several years ago. However, after the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India this year, India immediately pointed its finger at Pakistan, resulting in a large number of troops stationed on the border between the two countries, and the conflict was on the verge. After the terrorist attacks, India immediately pointed its finger at Pakistan. What does this mean? Is it to avoid the voice of domestic accusations or is there something else? Is it an opportunity to blackmail the United States and urge the Obama administration to maintain the Bush administration's policy toward India and the cooperation between the United States and India in civil nuclear energy, or do you want the United States to treat Pakistan with high pressure? Although the Bush administration quickly sent a special envoy to India to mediate between the two sides after the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, it seems that it is difficult for the Bush administration, which has reached the end of the road, to make a difference. The turmoil in South Asia has made China and the United States very worried. At present, China has also sent a special envoy to visit Pakistan, hoping to avoid a military conflict between the two sides.
The conflict between Palestine and Israel and India and Pakistan may be beneficial to Obama.
The Bush administration seems to have lost the slightest interest in the Palestinian-Israeli and India-Pakistan conflicts. After all, it is only 20 days before leaving office, and it is difficult to make a difference. As for Obama, although he has not yet taken office and is on vacation in Hawaii, it is reported that he has been paying attention to the conflict between Palestine and Israel and India and Pakistan. Although the current economic turmoil in the United States is worrying, it has been pointed out that although Obama is concerned about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, he may not actively deal with the Palestinian-Israeli and India-Pakistan conflicts after taking office. However, the author has different views on this. Perhaps the conflict between Palestine and Israel and India and Pakistan is beneficial to Obama's administration. Now, Obama's cabinet members have basically taken shape. In this regard, some people think that the Obama cabinet is obviously right-leaning. Hillary Clinton is Secretary of State, Jones is Assistant for National Security Affairs, and Gates is Secretary of Defense. These three people are hawks rather than doves, and they are all experienced people. Therefore, some people even think that Obama's power will be overhead. However, the current Palestinian-Israeli and India-Pakistan conflicts provide an opportunity for Obama to formulate foreign policy and national security strategy. After Obama takes office, he can use the current two major conflicts to establish his own foreign policy and national security strategy. So as not to really formulate foreign policy around Hillary Clinton in the future.
In addition, the conflicts between Palestine and Israel and India and Pakistan also gave Obama an opportunity to clarify his attitude towards international affairs. Although the United States has withdrawn its troops from Iraq, the policy of sending more troops to Afghanistan has been determined, and its strategy will shrink compared with that of the Bush administration, but as Obama promised voters in the election, how can we change the United States, how can we ensure that the United States still has influence in this world and can lead the American people back to the once powerful United States? Therefore, at this moment, the conflict between the four countries just sets the tone for Obama to handle international affairs. Israel and India in particular are important allies and partners of the United States in the Far East and the Near East. Therefore, establishing its own prestige will be more conducive to its future governance. At the same time, for Obama, it will be more conducive to his influence on international affairs if he changes the previous thinking and solutions of the US government on Palestine, Israel and India and Pakistan.
In short, although the current Palestinian-Israeli and India-Pakistan conflicts cast a shadow over the world at the end of the year, it may not be a bad thing for Obama. Therefore, the conflict between Palestine and Israel and India and Pakistan may be beneficial to Obama. History of Palestine and Israel Around the 20th century BC, Sumerian Canaanites settled in the coastal areas and plains of Palestine. BC13rd century, the Philistines established a country along the coast. At the end of 13 BC, Hebrew tribes moved in and settled. In 1 1 century BC, Jews established the Hebrew kingdom, and later Assyria, Babylon, Persia and other foreigners occupied Palestine. BC 1 century, the Roman Empire invaded, and most Jews flowed to all parts of the world. It became part of the Arab Empire in the 7th century. Arabs moved in and assimilated with local aborigines, and gradually formed modern Palestinian Arabs. According to the above materials, the Palestinian area was once the hometown of Jews, and their legends are widely known in this article. Take the Bible as an example. This Christian classic records the story of Jewish ancestors. Although most historians believe that we can't get much information from the Bible-this is not because the records in it are untrue, but because it is difficult to prove its authenticity; Moreover, the Bible is only a product of faith-however, since most of its contents are accepted by Jews today, it is necessary for us to understand the outline of the story carefully, because today's conflict and Jerusalem issue are closely related to religious reasons: the story begins with God telling Abraham to leave his hometown of Mesopotamia and start a new life in Canaan, now the Palestinian area. In this way, Abraham was regarded as the ancestor of the Jews, just as China regarded the Yellow Emperor as the ancestor of the Chinese nation. So Abraham came to Canaan with his wife and son, which is probably the evidence that Jews think they are the masters of the Palestinian area. His son Isaac and grandson Jacob are both considered ancestors of Jews. Jacob had twelve sons. For some reason, ten of them hated their brother Yue Se very much and sold him to Egypt as a slave. However, Joseph had an ability to interpret dreams, which won the favor of the king of Egypt, so he was appointed Prime Minister. Later, Jacob and his sons came to Egypt to take refuge in Yue Se, and produced a large number of their descendants. They were first called Israel (meaning that God fought for it or fought with God? )。 The king of Egypt saw the prosperous Jews and regarded them as a threat. In order to get rid of this hidden danger, he found an excuse to demote these Israelis into slaves. The painful service life made the poor Jews rise up and resist, so the story of Moses accepting the Ten Commandments and leading the Israelis back to their hometown was staged. I won't elaborate on complicated things. Around13rd century BC, the Israelites established the first unified kingdom-the Kingdom of Israel. During their reign, there were two outstanding kings, David and his son Solomon. They developed trade and maintained their rule by force, which made Israel develop to the peak. More importantly, at this time, Jerusalem, the capital of the kingdom, was established as the holy land of the Jewish nation, thus laying the groundwork for the thorny crux of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. From this point of view, the history of Jews, at least what they think is the fact, shows their national characteristics. In their subconscious, the Jewish nation is a disaster-ridden nation, but it is a nation that has overcome disasters. They have the courage and strength to resist God's tests. But their tragic experience in modern times seems even more tragic than the catastrophe recorded in the Bible. Is this another test for them? To be sure, that terrible experience will always be engraved in the wandering, broken and bleeding hearts of Jews: just after the demise of the kingdom of Israel, the Greek and Roman kingdoms also occupied this land, and Jews were exiled to all parts of the world during this period. They lost their hometown and were forced to flee to Germany, Austria, Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe and Western Europe, but their personal interests were greatly restricted. Perhaps because they are an intelligent people, they have made great achievements in politics, medicine and art, so they are envied by other peoples. The Russian massacre and World War II became the most painful memories of Jews, and perhaps because of this, the anger of Jews was out of control. 1920, Britain divided Palestine into two with the Jordan River as the boundary. In the east, it is called Outer Jordan (now the Kingdom of Jordan), and in the west, it is still called Palestine (now Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip) as a British trust territory. /kloc-At the end of 0/9, a large number of Jews moved to Palestine at the instigation of the "Zionist Movement", and bloody conflicts with local Arabs continued. After World War II, with the support of Britain and the United States, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution in 1947, stipulating that Palestine would establish a Jewish state (about 1.52 million square kilometers) and an Arab state (about1./kloc-0) after the end of the British Mandate in/948. 1948 After the founding of Israel in May, it pursued an expansionist policy and launched four large-scale wars against Arab countries in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. More than 654,380 million Palestinian Arabs have been driven out of their homes for generations and become refugees. 1964 The first meeting of the Palestinian National Council held in Jerusalem in May decided to establish the Palestine Liberation Organization. 1969 Arafat was the chairman of the PLO Executive Committee. 1978 In September, Egypt, Israel and the United States signed the Camp David Agreement, and the Palestinians in the occupied territories obtained limited autonomy, and the PLO refused to accept it. The special meeting of the Palestinian National Council 1988165438+1October19 held in Algiers adopted the Declaration of Independence, announcing the establishment of a Palestinian state on Palestinian land with Jerusalem as its capital. The declaration clearly stated that Palestine accepted General Assembly resolution/KOOC-0/947/KOOC-0/KOOC-0/adopted on 29 October (partition resolution). The border issue of Palestine will be resolved through negotiations in the future. 1988 12 Arafat recognized Israel's right to exist and condemned terrorism. 1993 September 13, after secret negotiations hosted by Norway, Israel and the PLO signed a peace agreement.