The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue an orange warning for typhoon. Plum blossoms are expected to move at a speed of 20-25 kilometers per hour.
Moving to the northwest, the intensity will be strengthened, gradually approaching the northeast coast of Zhejiang, and will be in Zhejiang
Jiang Wenling landed on the coast from Zhoushan.
Previously, the China Meteorological Bureau, the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly issued the meteorological warning of red mountain torrents and the geological disaster warning.
Meteorological risk warning. With "Plum Blossom" heading north, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai will enter the strongest typhoon core period in the next few days.
Especially in Shanghai, China Weather Network reported that Shanghai is in a dangerous typhoon semicircle, which will bear the extremely fierce plum blossom storm, the strongest period. ?
First, experts say that the core influence period of plum blossom, before and after the astronomical tide period, will be in the coastal areas.
An obvious typhoon storm surge process. Wang, a meteorologist from China Weather Network, said that easterly winds prevailed on the north side of the typhoon center, which would continuously roll the seawater onto land.
Land.
At present, the typhoon landing site is expected to be in the coastal area from Wenling to Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, and the Hangzhou Bay area is just affected by the easterly wind.
Area, plus its trumpet-shaped terrain. It makes it easy for seawater to gather in this area, superimposing astronomical tides and other factors, making
After continuous rainfall, the rising water level in this area is not good for urban drainage, so preparations should be made in advance to prevent urban waterlogging. Lin Dong, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said that in view of the great influence of high temperature some time ago, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China were dry
The drought is serious, and typhoon precipitation may be beneficial to alleviate the drought, reservoir water storage and agricultural water use in this area.
Second, even if the typhoon center does not land in Shanghai, Shanghai will have a greater probability of being in the "dangerous semicircle" on the right side of the typhoon.
Excessive force
Before the corpse arrived, the inverted trough storm of plum blossoms had swept the eastern coast of China.
It is expected that Meihua will continue to move to the northwest and land in Zhejiang and Shanghai.
However, "Plum Blossom" is relatively thin, and the influence range of wind and rain is relatively limited, mainly because the inverted trough extends widely, so there will be shadows before landing.
When it rings in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong and other places, the coastal areas of these places will also set off more dangerous storm surges shortly after the festival.
It is during the astronomical tide that the superimposed typhoon storm surge will cause many secondary disasters. Invite friends along the coast, especially money.
Residents on both sides of the Tangjiang River must stay away from the river, go as high as possible, and prepare pure water to prevent tap water from being polluted by seawater intrusion.
In addition, the typhoon "Nanmadu" with large circulation has been generated in the waters south of Japan and will probably enter the East China Sea.
Depending on its proximity to the east China coast, it may bring marginal wind and rain (short distance) or downwind (long distance). but
At present, it is predicted that it will turn to the west of Japan, and the probability of directly affecting China is not high.
Thirdly, the latest scanning radar is turned on, and it is found that the plum blossom structure is really unique in the typhoon in the East China Sea, and its strength is still maintained.
It's high and close to the coastline, and the core area has landed. At present, its intensity has increased again in the past midnight domestic time.
Slightly strengthened. At present, it is basically at the level of strong typhoon. It is extremely rare for a typhoon to land in Shanghai in northern Zhejiang. At present,
Its intensity and landing intensity have surpassed anemones and fireworks. Please don't underestimate it! This time it's really not "the wolf is coming"
At present, the possibility of not landing is extremely low, and it only needs a little western weight to land in China. At present, the biggest possibility is Xiangshan-Zhou.
Jiaxing Mountain, Shanghai.
At present, the intensity of the right tropical system is obviously stronger than expected, so a Fujiwara system should be added to the path factors just discussed.
Similar to the effect of the subtropical high "westerly belt", the sudden enhancement of this thermal system will make the path of Meihua move westward again, which
This time, the situation is completely different from the Zen capital Shangxuan Nolan. Please pay attention to this enhanced version of fireworks. At present, the increase of strength is in line with expectations, and it is expected to reach the peak soon, and then the strength will be maintained or slightly weakened, but we should be vigilant in the later period.
Using a small piece of high latent heat offshore explosion.
Fourthly, for Meihua, its path will be directly affected by factors: the subtropical high in the eastern ring, the westerly belt and its own strength. For the east
As far as the annular subtropical high is concerned, the intensity is higher than expected at present, and it will block to the east of Meihua like a wall, reducing its eastern component.
Make its path westward than expected; The influence of westerly belt on plum blossom path is mainly reflected in the establishment of northeast ridge on the north side and the guidance of subtropical high.
Extending to the northwest, this is equivalent to building a dam on the north side of Meihua to stop it. Their * * * interaction will greatly enhance Mei.
The possibility of flowers falling to the ground.
This also leads to the influence of the western tune of plum blossom's current path on its own strength on the path. If its strength is stronger than expected, it will be slightly eastward, and vice versa. But this
Power can be said to be a drop in the bucket of the first two forces. The first two will directly lead to its landing or turning, while the latter will
According to the analysis of these three factors, there is a 45% probability of landing in Zhoushan, a 45% probability of landing in Shanghai and a 25% probability of landing directly.
Sea, 20% possibility to land in Ningbo, 10% possibility to wipe the coast directly to the north!