Overview:
There is a strong speculative atmosphere in China A-share market. In a mature market, most people invest in value and hold stocks because they value the intrinsic value of stocks. However, most people in China hold stocks in order to sell them after rising, which is easy to cause the phenomenon of chasing up and killing down, leading to skyrocketing and plunging, which is not conducive to cultivating a mature market.
Part I: Review of A-share 08:
In 2008, Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares staged the "five major cases" since the current bull market, and behind these ten major cases, investors were more afraid of yesterday's market and worried about the market outlook. This newspaper has sorted out ten cases for investors to accurately grasp the pulse of the market outlook.
First, the biggest decline-354.69 points per day.
Yesterday, with the active intervention of bargain hunting, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets only fell by 2.67% and 1.39%, and successfully recovered some lost land. However, due to the formation of panic, more sellers took the opportunity to flee, which led to the continuous unilateral decline of the stock index, with a drop of 40 1.37 points and a maximum of11.78 points, with a drop of 8. 17% and 8.2%, which should be the China stock market.
Second, the biggest fear-about 1000 stocks fell.
When the "February 27th" crash last year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets recorded the biggest decline since1February 1997 18. About 800 stocks fell, but this was just a drop in the bucket. Statistics show that yesterday, about 1000 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell (excluding ST stocks), and the market tragedy exceeded "2.27". At the close, only 24 A-shares in the two cities rose, the rest all fell, and about 830 stocks fell. If you count 120 ST stocks that have reached the limit, the number of stocks that have reached the limit is close to 1, which shows the horror of the market.
Third, the biggest danger-only 100 points from the annual line.
All the technical support of Shanghai stock market except the annual line has been penetrated, and the market popularity has plummeted unprecedentedly. The data shows that yesterday, the Shanghai stock market fell to 45 1 1.95 points, plunging more than 40 1 point, only a hundred points away from the annual line of 4403.98 points. Is the bear market approaching because of the decline of the annual line since the current bull market? Or how the bull market will continue in the future is testing the wisdom and confidence of all parties in the market, including the management.
Fourth, the biggest loss-the market value evaporated by more than 2 trillion.
The plunge originated from China Ping An's "Circle Money" plan (80.47, 0.92, 1. 16%, right), which was the last straw to overwhelm the confidence of the bull market, and the market value loss caused to the market was several times of160 billion yuan, which was really not worth the candle. Statistics show that the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets yesterday was 28,776.684 billion yuan, up 2,266.742 billion yuan from Monday. Compared with last Friday's market value of 326,865.438+0.859 billion yuan, it is significantly reduced by 390,565.438+0.75 billion yuan, which is 24 times higher than the 654.338+0.60 billion yuan of Ping An's "circle money" plan.
Five, the biggest harm-two industry index limit.
Government bond index went red against the market, rising by 0.03%, and the corporate debt index (1 12.640, -0.03, -0.02%, right) fell by 0.08%, which was not serious. Other indexes fell by an average of 7.48%. Among them, the food index and agriculture and forestry index decreased the least, which were 3. 13% and 4.03% respectively. However, the construction index, textile index, real estate index and financial index fell by 9.89%~8.63%, while the communication index and mining index actually fell, with the most serious injuries.
Part II: Brief introduction of A-share bull and bear market:
1.a shares rose more than 60 times from the initial opening of less than 100 to the historical peak of 6 124, which lasted for 17 years, leaving too many memories for many people, creating a group of financial tycoons, and becoming the overlord of a country!
Second, during this period, that is, from June 6, 2005 to June 6, 2007, the stock index rose from 998 to 6124,28 months (including holidays) 10 days, creating one financial miracle after another! Individual stocks set a record of a hundredfold increase! I don't know whether to call it spectacular or sad!
3. "Live smartly and die tragically" plummeted from the highest point of 6 124 last June, and this year it fell below 4,000 points regarded by management as the bottom of the policy and 3,500 points regarded by institutional investors as the bottom of the market, reaching a minimum of 3,078 points, with an astonishing drop of over 50%. It only took half a year!
Fourth, SDB once stood firm in the bitter sea and wrote the legend of A shares. Today, PetroChina made a high-profile appearance in the flowers, but it had to be ordered to play the role of leading A shares to return to value and become a generation of heroes!
Nowadays, in the face of the stock index being halved by 75%, the prices of many stocks have fallen below the net assets, and the A-share financial sector is facing the situation that H shares are upside down as a whole. What we are facing is only a reality!
The third part:
Looking back at history and looking forward to the future, investment also pays attention to the lessons of the past.
First of all, about policy.
China stock market always wanted to get rid of the label of "policy city", which led to the drastic shareholding system reform in 2005! However, what the management didn't expect was that the original share reform plan became a drag today. At first, trying to get rid of the policy and let the market dominate itself has become an embarrassing situation in which the market is increasingly inseparable from the policy!
Whether the management will do this or not, we can at least judge that the China stock market is still inseparable from policies, which is not a mistake of the market's own development, but a problem of the system! "Policy to save the market!" "Curb the scale of the ban!" "Restrict refinancing!" Become a lifeline for today's investors!
We don't know whether the government will stand up and take measures now, but the fact needs the government to stand up! From June 6th, 2005 to October 6th, 2007 10, the value of China stock market was seriously overdrawn due to excessive chic. Since June 6, 2007, PetroChina's "big name" performance has made the market unbearable, psychologically distorted and its performance abnormal. If it wants to survive, it must be rearranged!
It can be said that if there is no substantial positive in the A-share market, it is impossible to rebound completely by relying on the market to save itself. Well, there is hope! But if it is not good, there must be hope!
If it is introduced, such as "reducing or unilaterally collecting stamp duty", then: there is still little hope in the A-share market, and the decline will be even greater after the rebound! Will cause more pain! The slap in the face of management will be louder! (After all, the stamp duty was originally adjusted to be reasonable and to stabilize the market, so it will not play a substantial role now. Isn't this a fuss? )
Reform takes time, and so does the reform of the A-share market. It is impossible to solve it with one or two policies. The risks of financial reform are enormous. China stock market must get rid of the policy market if it wants to develop healthily! The previous measures may not be perfect, and now they must be revised and supplemented! Personally, I think that no matter how detailed the reform plan is, it is not as useful as perfect laws and regulations. It is the correct and effective way to improve laws and regulations first and then improve the system!
Paying attention to policy trends and grasping the pulse of economy is an excellent century to improve laws and regulations and introduce systems. Maybe the management is ready, so we will wait and see.
Second, look at the economy.
Look at the economy from both domestic and international perspectives, because in the past, we only looked at home and not abroad, but now we are afraid of losing money. Aren't you afraid? I feel horrible. Oh, hehe! Let's see, why are you afraid:
From 6 124 to 18500, everyone didn't find the reason from themselves, saying that the reason was affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the economic development in the United States! Oh, dear! This incident has had such a great impact. What happened in the United States caused China A shares to plummet by 40%. Can we not focus on this? In fact, we all know that both American subprime mortgage and international economy are just the fig leaf of management. The subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell at most 17%. The U.S. stock market began to rebound without even touching the edge of the bear market. When more and more investment banks are optimistic about the bullish trend of US stocks, can they still blame the plunge of A shares on the impact of subprime mortgage?
Now is the global economy, and we can't ignore the development of the international economy. It is a fact that the US economic slowdown leads to the global economic slowdown, which will inevitably affect China's economic development, foreign trade exports and the performance of related listed companies. Exchange rate changes will undoubtedly have a greater impact on related sectors and stocks, but not all negative!
At present, the domestic economic development momentum is still good, but the problem of high inflation has been put in the first place, which is also the key to the current national monetary policy! It is realistic and necessary to curb high inflation, but it is bound to implement a tight monetary policy, which will have a greater impact on the stock market. So why not take two-way measures: that is, while implementing a tight monetary policy, it will help stabilize the stock market! Of course, this should be based on national financial security and long-term development to formulate measures, not for stability and stability! Pay attention to economic development and grasp the pulse of the stock market! It is a compulsory course for investors!
Third, judge the situation.
At present, the policy is blank and in a veritable vacuum! Known or bad stock market information: On the 25th, the deposit reserve ratio was raised again! So what will happen in the market outlook? First of all, I personally still think there is no news, but there is news that has not been announced yet, and it is good news. In other words, there will be actions in the policy area in the next few days, so everyone can pay attention to it in time!
Secondly, I personally think that there is a strong technical support. (Doing stocks depends on technology), the integer point of 2000 is not broken, even if it really reaches 1800 or even 1200, but A shares will not stop there, and there will be a glorious day.
Finally, if the management doesn't act again (I think it has its own reasons) or doesn't come up with anything substantial, then it will still fall after the rebound. Where is the bottom? I don't know! I can't imagine! Of course, what we don't want to see is such a result, but we must be mentally prepared! Even if there is a practical plan, personally, the high point of the stage is about 3000. Therefore, investors should judge the situation, operate correctly and accept it as soon as possible!
Fourth, give advice.
At present, the market is not completely unable to save itself from the policy, but the confidence of investors has not recovered and needs some guidance, whether it is the institution or the government! Investors should also improve their investment level. You know, the capital market pays attention to technology and strategy, and you can't make money casually! This also requires investors to have a certain level of technical analysis and the ability to extract and use information. Of course, it is also important to grasp history and accumulate experience!
Suggestion 1: To learn professional skills well, at least master some basic technical analysis! Adjust your mentality and pay attention to controlling risks! It is worth noting that with the continuous activity of the market, a large number of new investors who lack risk awareness and risk-taking ability enter the market. These new investors generally lack investment experience and professional knowledge, and their awareness of investment risk is not strong. This may appear in the future market, but I hope my advice can help you, and you were not among them!
Suggestion 2: Don't trust others easily, trust your own judgment, have your own plan, and implement the investment strategy as planned! You know, at 3500, Yang Baiwan encouraged investors to kill it! At 3300, "flight attendant" Zuo Xiao Lei also sang too much (this needs to be confirmed)! The result is all wrong! Every mature investor should know that investment should be carried out independently and enjoy the benefits at his own risk.
Suggestion 3: Investors should know more about history and establish a correct view of value investment! (Investment is still based on value. Although some stocks show signs of deviating from their values, they will eventually return to their reasonable values. As we all know, the worst crisis in financial history happened after that summer. 1929101On October 24th, the new york stock market plunged and the index fell like a waterfall. It is said that 1 1 well-known investors on Wall Street committed suicide that day. Since then, "Black Monday" and "Black Tuesday" have followed.
This unprecedented stock market crash lasted from 1929 to 1932, which became the fuse of the Great Depression in the 1930s. From the highest point of 1929 of 38 1 to the lowest point of 4 1932 in July, the Dow Jones stock index fell by 89% (at present, the decline of A shares is only about 50%). By July 1933, the stock value in the US stock market was only equivalent to 1923. The wealth of millions of investors was "slaughtered" and the American economy fell into a long-term depression. This is the result of deviating from value investment and the bursting of the bubble!
Never forget the past, the teacher of the future! Adjust your mentality. Treat investment rationally!
Conclusion:
Of course, rational investment needs planning, and how to make your own investment plan and investment product portfolio is very important;
At present, many investors do not have a scientific investment plan and investment product portfolio. They know that "eggs can't be put in one basket", but they still put eggs in one basket. Maybe they don't know where to put it or how to put it elsewhere. This is an urgent problem!