This year, the trend of international food prices has taken off. Although the domestic market is relatively independent, it is mainly affected by two aspects: first, the domestic market supply and demand, and second, the international market sentiment and indirect influence.
The trend of the international grain market is relatively clear. Because the epidemic in the previous two years and the dispute between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the market supply and demand, the advantages obviously outweighed the disadvantages, so the international grain basically fluctuated at a high level, and some institutions even thought that there was room for further increase in the later period.
With the constant fluctuation of the international market, the domestic market has gradually stepped out of some "trends".
1, wheat just fell and rose, and both "top" and "bottom" appeared?
Two years ago, corn took the lead in soaring, but this year, the tables have turned and turned to wheat.
Since the end of last year, wheat has shown a strong upward trend.
Last year, it crossed the mark of 1.5 yuan/kg. As a result, this year is even more imminent, passing through 1.5 yuan, 1.6 yuan and even 1.7 yuan. Although it was adjusted back later, the current wheat price is above 1.5 yuan.
A few days ago, wheat suddenly fell across the board, causing short-term panic in the market. However, for wheat, the market support is still relatively obvious.
The first is the issue of "quantity".
Last year, a lot of wheat was replaced, but some new wheat grew weakly because of the delay of winter sowing, so this "quantity" was taken away by many people.
The problem of "quantity" is far from affecting rations. Our rations have always been sufficient, but it will affect the substitution of people.
Secondly, market consumption should increase this year.
On the one hand, with the change of people's living habits, the demand for bread, cakes and other foods has increased rapidly, and the consumption of flour has increased; On the other hand, affected by the epidemic, people began to have a sense of hoarding goods, which will also increase the demand for flour to a certain extent.
Third, Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports, while Ukraine's export volume and planting probability will decline due to port closure and conflict, and the decline may be not small.
On the other hand, Russia's wheat export is blocked due to sanctions and other reasons, resulting in the suspension of production of nearly half of the flour mills in Kazakhstan due to insufficient raw materials, which will undoubtedly aggravate the fluctuation of global wheat prices.
So this is also the reason why wheat has rebounded sharply in recent days after falling for a few days, so it can be predicted that at least before the new wheat is listed, the bottom of wheat price has basically been built.
Similarly, it is difficult for wheat to continue to break through the previous high. Unless there is a new stimulus, the price top of wheat is basically visible.
2. The corn is not in a hurry, ready to go up.
The situation of corn is more complicated than that of wheat, mainly in three aspects:
First, although there is a gap between corn production and demand, the demand is not strong.
Especially in the case that the live pig market is still depressed and the aquaculture industry continues to lose money, the demand for feed has been greatly weakened.
On the other hand, starch is also weak.
Second, the replacement is pending.
Who will be the "baton" after the withdrawal of wheat substitution will directly affect the market demand of corn.
Third, despite the high price of imported corn and the turmoil in the international market this year, the import volume has dropped significantly.
By the end of March, China had purchased 1 265,438+million tons of corn from the United States, only half of the same period last year.
But last year, corn imports were amazing, so the gap was not that big.
However, even so, we believe that this year's corn is still on the rise, mainly for three reasons:
First, whether it is planting area, yield or demand, corn is the best, and its production and demand structure is basically fixed and will not change easily.
Moreover, the output of corn has not increased significantly this year, so it is unlikely that corn will fall sharply.
Second, the reduction of international corn production, especially in Ukraine, is a high probability event.
According to JPMorgan Chase's analysis, Ukrainian corn production may drop by as much as 40% this year, and some institutions expect a drop of as much as 50%.
This further aggravates the global corn supply, so the international corn price is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
Third, the price of chemical fertilizer has been rising all the way this year, and the planting cost has increased significantly. In particular, corn has a great demand for chemical fertilizers. In the whole country, there are also the most farmers planting corn, so it is difficult for corn to plummet under the premise of ensuring farmers' income.
However, it is worth noting that corn may be different from wheat. When wheat is rising by leaps and bounds, corn may continue to rise slowly in the shock, just as corn has unconsciously approached the end of the purchase and sale.
3. Soybean is difficult to fall
The trend of soybeans is actually quite chaotic. After all, the current soybean price is falling, and this year's "expansion" means that the output will increase.
On the other hand, the planting intention report of the United States also shows that the willingness of American farmers to plant soybeans has been significantly enhanced, which has also caused the international soybean price to fall.
Even so, there are two pieces of news that strongly support soybeans:
First, soybeans have always been our shortcoming. Unlike wheat and corn, our soybean dependence on foreign countries has been above 85%, which means that even if it is expanded, it is difficult to make up for this gap greatly.
However, after South American countries successively reduced production, the import sources began to favor American beans, and the weather speculation of American beans was a common trick, which would not be smooth sailing in the subsequent growing season, making it difficult for global soybean prices to fall.
Second, the price of vegetable oil has risen sharply this year, from sunflower seed oil to palm oil, to rapeseed oil and then to soybean oil.
The main raw material of soybean oil is soybean. Imagine that the price of soybean oil has risen sharply. Where can soybean prices fall?
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