The beginning date of the story is 65438+20061October 9, and the long-awaited soybean oil is on the market. Subsequently, palm oil and vegetable oil appeared one after another, and the three main forces of oil and fat began a decade-long love-hate relationship.
Attached Figure 1: Price Trend of Three Oils of Bean Brown Vegetable
First, commodity futures recruited, and soybean oil led the gains.
On June 9, 2006, 65438+ Dalian added new members, and the May continuous soybean oil contract officially appeared at the opening price of 5300 yuan/ton. 65438+1From October to March, even soybean oil developed in a "W" shape. The May contract hit a low of 4642 in April, which is also the lowest point of soybean oil in ten years.
China has a large number of rapeseed sources, from Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in the north to Yunnan in the south, from the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the east to Qinghai Province in the west. The largest output is in Hubei Province. There is a saying that "China rapeseed looks at Hubei and Hubei rapeseed looks at Jingzhou." People in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin are used to eating vegetable oil, and June is the season for rapeseed to go on the market in this area. Therefore, the emergence of a large number of new vegetable oils has brought a certain impact to the soybean oil market.
In the era of planned economy, oil was supplied by vouchers. Vegetable oil is 0.66 yuan a catty and soybean oil is 0.6 1 yuan a catty. In other words, vegetable oil was more than soybean oil at that time 100 yuan/ton. In the era of market economy, after the liberalization of grain and oil prices, a large number of imported soybean oil flooded into the domestic market, and soybean imports were also very large. In addition, the State Council issued a notice to ensure the supply of grain and oil, reasonably increase the variety of grain and the reserve of finished grain, and ensure that it can be put on the market at any time. It is required to organize grain transportation, and the railway and transportation departments should strengthen dispatching and give priority to ensuring grain and oil transportation.
Units such as China Grain Storage Co., Ltd. have been competing to sell state grain and oil for six times to stabilize prices, and a large number of state crude soybean oil has entered the market. Due to the high price of soybean oil, the profit of soybean crushing is rich and the operating rate is high, and the domestic soybean oil supply is further increased. The negative trend of soybean oil led to the low adjustment of soybean oil for more than 6 months after listing. In the second half of 2006, the spot and futures of soybean oil began to strengthen, especially from September to 65438+February, the monthly line continued to close, and the main contract 0605 finally closed at a high of 68 12. Soybean oil has won a great victory this year. At that time, vegetable oil had not been imported, domestic supply was scarce and the price was high. Vegetable oil is 300-600 yuan/ton higher than soybean oil.
Second, biodiesel tells stories, and soybean oil rushes to 15,000.
The ten-year oil market is remarkable at this stage, with endless aftertaste, which has the significance of teaching books. In 2007, the domestic soybean oil market staged an unprecedented "big bull market"! Since April, soybean oil has been on the rise, and the price has risen steadily and stepped up, which has been rare for a long time. Every market adjustment is saving energy for the next wave of rise, which broke through the historical high point in 2004 in a very short time and continued to leap on this basis. By the end of the year, the spot price of domestic first-class soybean oil has exceeded 12000 yuan/ton, with a jump of 5300 yuan/ton, which is about 4 100 yuan/ton higher than the historical second-highest price difference.
Despite several national regulations, edible oils such as soybean oil, palm oil and cotton oil have been higher than 1000 yuan/ton. However, the price of soybean oil is still unstoppable, and it continues to hit a new high near the end of the year. It can be seen that the formation of soybean oil "bull market" in 2007 was not a cold day, which has its inevitability and rationality. As a companion variety, vegetable oil has also increased, and the price difference between beans and vegetables has further widened.
What caused this bull market? The origin of the story is still talked about. In 2006, the international situation was turbulent and people's awareness of energy crisis intensified, which triggered the largest biofuel speculation. The incident of British soldiers broke out in the Middle East, and the relationship between the United States, Britain and Iraq was once again tense, threatening the international oil supply and production order, pushing the international crude oil price to a new high, and the international biofuel speculation suddenly warmed up. Later, several international organizations raised the analysis of energy shortage to a new height.
During the period of 10, the conflict between Turkey and Iraq was also explosive, which caused great concern to the oil supply and production in the market. As a result, the concept of biodiesel began to become the reason for the rise of oil, which was out of control. Oil futures at home and abroad hit record highs, and the skyrocketing trend continued until the beginning of 2008. On March 4th, 2008, crude oil rose to $65,438 +002.75, and CBOT soybean oil was also very strong, reaching the highest level of 72.69 cents in 33 years. On March 4th, 2008, the May contract of soybean oil reached a record high of14,896 yuan/ton, the main contract of Cai Zheng oil reached15,865,438 yuan/ton and the main contract of palm oil reached12,992 yuan/ton in May. At this time, vegetable oil is higher than soybean oil 1.368 yuan/ton, soybean oil is higher than palm oil 1.660 yuan/ton, and the price difference between soybean and palm oil widens. The amazing increase of soybean oil at this stage has become the most beautiful oil myth in the past decade!
Third, the subprime mortgage crisis market was chaotic, and the three armed forces plunged the oil market miserably.
After entering 2008, the domestic oil market continued to rise. During the Spring Festival, the snowstorm in the south triggered another round of crazy speculation. The domestic soybean oil market has soared, hitting record highs, and once wrote a "bull market myth". In the madness, some critics have shouted the slogan of10.8 million yuan/ton of soybean oil. At that time, there was a very popular legend circulating all over the country. At the beginning of 2007, a woman surnamed Wan from Hubei entered soybean oil futures. In the blink of an eye, at the beginning of 2008, this woman surnamed Wan has made a profit of 654.38+million! However, joy begets sorrow, and the good times do not last long. After the skyrocketing, there was a sharp decline. Since March 4, the domestic soybean oil price has been falling all the way.
In March, with the convening of the "two sessions", the government report made "preventing structural price increases from turning into obvious inflation" as the primary task of macro-control this year, and the CPI increase will be controlled at around 4.8%, which instantly caused sensitive reactions of domestic and foreign oils and became a "shock bomb" to suppress the domestic and foreign oil markets. The external market is also affected by the centralized listing of soybeans in South America. The soaring domestic soybean oil price was hit hard and the market price plummeted. In just two weeks, the average price of soybean oil fell by 4000-4500 yuan/ton, and soybean oil became an irresistible "dou".
It is conceivable that the ending of the woman surnamed Wan was forced to close her position by the exchange, and the previous gains were wiped out. Then in June 5438+10, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, all oils plummeted again. The main contract of soybean oil 0905 once fell to 5560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of palm oil 0905 fell to 4344 yuan/ton. At this time, the price difference between beans and palm oil was 12 16 yuan/ton, and the main contract of vegetable oil fell to 548 yuan/ton in May.
In 2008, the domestic soybean oil market experienced "two days of ice and fire", and the market trend was mixed, which was closely related to the theme of biofuel speculation. At the beginning of 2008, the international crude oil price climbed all the way, and after effectively breaking through the 100 USD/barrel mark, it brought considerable profit space to the biofuel industry, and biofuel production in various countries was in full swing.
Among them, the United States uses soybean oil as the main raw material to develop the biofuel industry, and Argentina is the country that uses soybean oil to produce the most fuel in the world. In 2007, * * * exported 3 19093 tons of biodiesel, and the output in 2008 was close to10.5 million tons. It is the rising international crude oil price that provides a good opportunity for the development of biofuels at home and abroad, and the increasing demand for soybean oil pushes its market to a record high. Later, the international crude oil price continued to fall, the biofuel industry maintained by high oil prices was frustrated, the relationship between supply and demand of soybean oil at home and abroad eased, and the market showed a long-term rational decline.
Fourth, the governments of various countries rescued the market, and the three major oils rebounded strongly.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the state has maintained the basic stability of China's grain and oil market through large-scale regulation and control measures such as market support, storage and transportation, and farmers' income from growing grain has been basically guaranteed. It is reported that in 2008, the China Grain Storage System sold 68.8 million tons of grain and oil to the market, ensuring sufficient food supply in the market. In addition, in view of the tight regional supply and demand, seven batches of 710.3 million tons inter-provincial warehousing and dispatching plans were organized, involving all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities except Tibet and Xinjiang. Sales and transportation have set new records.
In the case of food crisis in more than 40 countries around the world, and even social unrest in some countries, through effective regulation and control, China realized the disconnection between the domestic soybean oil price and the external market in the first half of 2008, and the market cooled down ahead of schedule and landed smoothly. In the second half of the year, China's consistent purchasing and storage actions played an effective supporting role in the market. The soybean oil 0905 contract fell to a low of 5,560 yuan/ton and began to fluctuate moderately. National regulation has played an important role in maintaining domestic soybean oil inventory and uninterrupted supply and buffering excessive ups and downs.
Countries all over the world are trying their best to save the market. After the US adopted the 700 billion bailout plan, China launched a 4 trillion economic investment plan, and the EU approved a 2 trillion new plan to stimulate the economy. In addition, in order to stimulate economic development, central banks all over the world have lowered deposit and loan interest rates, accelerated infrastructure construction, encouraged people to actively consume, restored confidence and revitalized the economy. The active rescue actions of various countries have achieved remarkable results, and the world economy has bottomed out. The oil market gradually eased the pressure. After the oil market plunged, it began to pick up slowly and rebounded. 2011February, the soybean oil 1 105 contract rose to a high of 10776 yuan/ton, and the palm oil 1 105 contract rose to105.
5. Vegetable oil is in the national treasury, so it is a little difficult to find him in the market.
Vegetable oil is an important oil in the south. In June 2007, the vegetable oil contract was listed on Zhengzhou Stock Exchange. Since 2008, the government of China has implemented the policy of temporary storage and storage of rapeseed for five consecutive years. Looking back on history, since 2008, the temporary storage prices of rapeseed were 2.2 yuan, 1.85 yuan, 1.95 yuan, 2.3 yuan and 2.5 yuan, which protected farmers' enthusiasm for planting to a certain extent and delayed the downward trend of rapeseed planting area year after year. In recent years, with the government supporting the market to buy rapeseed oil and subsidizing agriculture, the business model of large oil enterprises has changed.
Oils and fats manufacturers buy rapeseed for storage in the harvest season, and the pressed rapeseed oil is put into the State Reserve for grain storage. The government implemented the policy of subsidizing enterprises or supporting the market to buy rapeseed oil, which led to the purchase price of rapeseed oil being significantly higher than the market price. Therefore, oil companies mainly sell oil to the country, not the market. The policy of supporting the market has increased the storage cost of rapeseed oil. A large amount of vegetable oil is concentrated in the national reserve, and it is suddenly difficult to see rapeseed in the market.
Therefore, there are two phenomena in the market. First, the spread between vegetable oil and soybean oil has widened rapidly. Second, imported vegetable oil began to flood in. As a result, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil and palm oil has widened. 20 12 futures market, the spread between contracted vegetable oil and soybean oil in September has expanded to 1200 yuan/ton, reaching an all-time high. In the first half of this year, vegetable oil was very beautiful. The ensuing import of vegetable oil and raw materials also laid the groundwork for the further narrowing of the price difference behind.
6. The whole country is denouncing gutter oil and palm oil for no reason.
Before, we said that vegetable oil was beautiful in the first half of 20 12, but palm oil was very dark and miserable in the second half of this year! Compared with vegetable oil, it is a world of difference. In 20 12, because of the abnormal weather, the hype of American beans was in full swing, and the midwest of the United States suffered a drought once in 50 years. During this period, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the excellent growth rate of American soybeans from 65% to 3 1%, with the lowest growth rate reaching 29%, and American soybeans soared to 1738.7 cents. As an oil product inseparable from soybean oil, the trend of soybean and brown has always been the same. This year, palm oil not only failed to follow the American market, but made soybean oil lead 2200 yuan/ton.
What makes palm oil so cold? Two factors: First, after entering the second half of 20 12, Malaysia's palm oil production increased rapidly and its inventory expanded. Second, the voice of cracking down on gutter oil in China is rising. Palm was mixed with soybean oil in summer because its acid value was not up to standard, and it was once the object of counterfeiting. On June 20 12, AQSIQ issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Inspection and Supervision of Imported Edible Oil, which took effect on June 20 13. China's palm oil market has been adjusted in a targeted manner, and the notice stipulates that all palm oil that does not meet the standards is not allowed to be imported. At that time, the acid value of most edible palm oil imported from China was not up to standard, and the substandard imported palm oil needed secondary refining, which increased the difficulty and cost of shipment!
That's not all. 20 12 the attitude of cracking down on gutter oil in China is very firm. In summer, some vendors in the south mix palm oil with other oils to reduce costs. In addition, the acid value of palm oil is not up to standard, palm oil has been severely hit, and some small traders have been criminally dealt with. Market panic, avoiding palm oil, palm oil sales are even worse.
We were born from the same root, so why should we speculate with each other! Palm is not prosperous in the summer season of 20 12, and it is quickly torn apart by soybean oil. The difference between spot and disk and soybean palm is as high as 2200 yuan/ton, which is extremely rare in history. At the end of 20 12, the main contract of soybean oil in May closed at 86 12 yuan/ton, palm oil in May closed at 6922 yuan/ton, and Zheng Caiyou closed at 9754 yuan/ton in May. The price difference between soybean and palm oil has expanded to the largest in history this year. Soybean oil won, palm oil was neglected in front of the door.
Seven, the market is unable to go up, and the three major oils are busy looking for the bottom.
The overall trend of 20 14 oil market is even heavier. From the background, crude oil futures 20 14 fell by 46%. In 20 13/ 14, the soybean planting area in Argentina was 20.35 million hectares, an increase of 3.29% compared with 20 12/197,000 hectares, and that in Brazil was 29.2 million hectares, an increase of 32,000 hectares compared with 2012/. As well as the record planting area of American soybeans, American soybeans once fell sharply for four consecutive months, down 22% for the whole year, American soybean oil fell 17%, and Dalian soybean oil futures fell 16.34%. Under the situation of serious negative external and fundamental conditions, the spot price of domestic soybean oil has plummeted and the price has continuously hit a new low. As of 65438+February 3 1, the spot price of primary soybean oil in coastal areas has dropped to 5630-5820 yuan/ton, plummeting1310/370 yuan/ton.
On 20 14, the oil slump did not end, and on 20 15, oil continued to go down to find the bottom. In mid-June, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and other ministries and commissions issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Rapeseed Purchase in 20 15, pointing out that from 20 15, local governments will be responsible for organizing various enterprises to purchase rapeseed and store it.
Therefore, although the domestic rapeseed output decreased again this year (the sown area continued to decrease, and the output per unit area was poor), domestic rapeseed had no advantage in directly facing the competition between imported rapeseed and vegetable oil (at that time, the domestic rapeseed price was pushed back by imported rapeseed oil 1.65- 1.75 yuan/kg), and the commercial demand dropped sharply (the enterprise was short of funds and the risk was difficult to control). In particular, the purchase volume of 200 rapeseed processing enterprises has dropped sharply, and most enterprises are not producing normally. Although 95 Luzhou-flavor enterprises digested most of the rapeseed in the whole year, the rapeseed market was still unbalanced between supply and demand during the centralized supply period, and the prices in various producing areas fell sharply. At the peak of traditional acquisition, the minimum price of growers dropped to 3,400 yuan/ton, down 3 1% from the previous year.
The domestic rapeseed oil market is affected by the overall weakness of the vegetable oil market, the sharp drop in crude oil prices, the suspension of purchasing and storage, and the dumping of vegetable oil, and the price performance is weak, showing a bottom shock throughout the year. In 20 15, the three major oils were in decline, looking for their own bottoms. The bottoms of the three major oils were found at different times in the second half of 20 15. The low points of soybean oil, palm oil and vegetable oil are 5 158 yuan/ton, 3,984 yuan/ton and 5,480 yuan/ton respectively. After several years of ups and downs, the price difference between the three oil brothers finally returned to normal. It can be said that the brothers who robbed the waves were here, and they met at the lowest point.
Eight, Malay palm oil production is tight, and the three armed forces are leading.
20 16 driven by the improvement of domestic macro-environment, hot money poured into the commodity market, and the trading of commodity market sectors was obvious. Black goods led the whole process of commodity prices rising, industrial products went to capacity and reduced inventory, and the agricultural products sector benefited a lot from it. Malaysia's palm oil production reduction and strict import inspection requirements have extended the commodity inspection time from the original 4-5 days to more than half a month, resulting in an extremely tight supply of palm oil. Inventory once fell to a historical low of around 300,000 tons, far below the level of around 750,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of palm oil in the south is close to a standstill, which has promoted palm oil to soar wildly and become the "leader" of the oil industry. The spread between palm oil and soybean oil has been shrinking to a historical low, and the spot price of palm oil and soybean oil is even upside down by 72 yuan/ton.
On the disk, the September contract of bean palm was once only 200 yuan/ton. The wind and water have turned, and palm oil has become the boss this year. At the end of 20 16, the closing prices of the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil and vegetable oil in May were 6980 yuan/ton, 6202 yuan/ton and 7230 yuan/ton respectively, and the price difference was within the normal range.
Attached Figure 2: Trend chart of bean and brown price difference.
Nine, the national reserve throws the oil pressure market, and the scenery of vegetable oil is no longer.
The temporary storage system of rapeseed in China was promulgated in 2008 and implemented the following year. Cancelled on 20 15. During 2009-20 15, the national reserve rapeseed oil was rotated three times, but the transaction effect was not satisfactory, resulting in a large backlog of rapeseed oil stocks. With the instruction of "destocking" put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference on 20 16, the national reserve vegetable oil began to be dumped in large quantities, and the starting price dropped to 5300 yuan/ton.
2065 438+05-2065 438+06, the country began to throw vegetable oil. As the country dumped again, the price of vegetable oil was instantly returned to its original shape and became a prisoner. The spread of bean vegetable oil then collapsed, from the once high spread of 1.200 yuan/ton to the 200 yuan/ton when the premium of vegetable oil to soybean oil was the highest. After that, with the reduction of selling by the State Reserve, the price difference between beans and vegetables widened again. By the end of the year, the main contract of Zheng rapeseed oil is about 240 yuan/ton higher than that of soybean oil.
Ten, oil ten years strong and weak transformation, ups and downs of beans and brown vegetables.
Soybean oil, vegetable oil and palm oil were listed in 2006 and 2007 respectively. The ten-year futures history of the three major oils is also the most critical and wonderful stage in the history of China oil market. The shock of the international political situation, the troubles of related commodities, the formulation of national policies and the unpredictable weather are all affecting the trends of the three oil prices. In the past ten years, although the three brothers parted ways, they have always been at the forefront of the oil market.
Through the analysis of three kinds of oils and fats in recent ten years, we can see the inherent law of the price difference of three kinds of oils and fats, that is, the normal price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in summer is about 600 yuan/ton, and the price difference in winter is about 1000 yuan/ton. The price difference between vegetable oil and soybean oil is normally between 300-600 yuan/ton. This is just a normal price difference. In extreme cases, normal relations will soon be broken and expanded. 20 12 soybean oil is 2200 yuan/ton higher than palm oil. By September of 20 16, the price difference between soybean and palm oil was 200 yuan/ton, and the spot was once upside down in 72 yuan/ton. In four years, the amplitude on the disk reached 2000 yuan/ton, which is a classic example.
Xiongguan road is as iron as iron, and now it is still one step away from the beginning. Any trend that is divorced from reality and contrary to the normal state will eventually return to the normal running track. After ten years of fighting, the price difference between the three main forces of oil and fat has formed a certain fluctuation law today. So, who will be the pilot in the next game?
Risk warning: This article is shared by old dry goods and has nothing to do with the current market. Please choose to read.