It is every speculator's dream to struggle in the stock market, avoid participating in long-term consolidation and seize the trend of large price fluctuations. If we can use quantitative data and technical characteristics to track most super stocks, investors will be very interested. Today, Bian Xiao will share with you the technical characteristics of the dark horse in stock analysis, for your reference only!
O 'Neill, an American stock picking artist, summed up the CANSLIM stock picking method after summarizing the 500 stocks with the largest increase in the history of US stocks. His loyal followers earn more than 40% a year. Here, we draw lessons from his practice and summarize the technical characteristics of bull stocks before the skyrocketing in the history of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets for readers' reference in the rapidly changing market. This column will be launched one by one in the form of a series, striving to achieve the unity of theoretical correctness and practical feasibility.
The essence behind the continuous surge of heavyweights is the centralized purchase of a large amount of funds, which leads to a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The chart shows the characteristics of the mid-level rising wave in Dow's theory and the third wave in Eliot's fluctuation. Most skyrocketing stocks have to go through a process of collection and brewing, and stones are still rippling into the water, not to mention whales entering the market. The fundamental feature of stocks with a large amount of capital intervention is that they are stronger than the broader market in terms of price and volume. According to the different collection styles of powerful stocks, we can divide them into the following three types:
1. Anti-falling platform type: Its applicable index environment is the downward trend of the market.
2. Slow upswing against the trend: suitable for market decline.
3. High takeover: suitable for strong consolidation or upward trend of the market.
This issue introduces the first type of anti-falling platform. Definition: The index is in a medium-term downward trend, with the decline exceeding 10%, while individual stocks build an anti-decline platform at the same period, with the amplitude between 10- 15%. Typical examples are1Oriental Pearl in May 1999 and1Katie Power in June 1999.
The following is for your analysis:
A.1On April 0, 999, Oriental Pearl (600832), which bottomed out at 13.66 yuan, began to attack. On April 2 1 sundown 16. 15 yuan began to consolidate, with amplitude 10% and period of 65438+. During the same period when the Oriental Pearl was building a platform to prevent falling, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from April 9 to May 17, with a drop of 13%. During this period, the lower level of the Oriental Pearl was strong, and there was a strong consolidation at the bottom higher than the bottom, rising two days earlier than the broader market and becoming the leader of the broader market. The highest increase of the main wave of the whole wave 16 1%, lasting 18 days, can be described as short-term profiteering.
B1Katie Power (0939), a new share listed on September 23rd, 1999, changed hands by 78% on that day, with the lowest price of 16.60 yuan and the closing price of 18.00 yuan. Subsequently, two waves of small price rises were launched, which were the platform for 20 trading days after1October 3 reached the high of 24.42 yuan with 165438. 65438+February, 1, the volume broke through and entered the main increase. When Katie Power broke through the upside to 65438+February on September 23rd, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell from 47 1 to 428 points, with a decrease of 10.4%. After the breakthrough, Katie Power still broke through the upswing because of the broader market.
The above introduces the anti-falling platform and the main rising wave, but with the market size of nearly a thousand stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today, it is impossible to read them one by one. How can we find stocks that have just broken through the anti-falling platform quantitatively and relatively easily? We can first use the "intelligent stock selection" of the "stock trajectory" network to find out the stocks that have already broken through, and then select the ideal stocks in combination with the table.
Another morphological judgment rule with high winning rate is called adjustment A-B-CB-C. According to wave theory, price adjustment often appears in three stages: A, B and C. After the adjustment is completed, another trend will unfold. In the speculative market, if the relationship between trend and adjustment cannot be identified, it is impossible to obtain long-term stable returns. Below we will introduce an example of this form:
(1) National Chemical Industry (0635) 99.111After reaching the bottom of 9.09 yuan, it began to rise initially, and 12.23 reached its peak, and began to adjust in three stages: A, B and C.
(2) Sanmu Group (0632) started its initial increase at 8.28 yuan in 2000.1.24, peaked at/kloc-0.15 yuan on February 22, and began to adjust the three sections of A, B and C, and broke through the neckline1in March.
I don't know if readers have noticed that there is a difference between the platform forms that can be introduced in this issue and the last issue, that is, the platform is composed of five stages of adjustment, A, B, C, D and E, with a smaller range and a longer time, while A, B and C have a larger range and a shorter time.
Then, if the index environment changes, the decline will be relatively slow and the magnitude will not be large. What will happen to the main stocks in the chart? The main amount of funds is large. It takes a certain amount of time and space to get in and out once, which will be reflected in the K-line chart and volume. Take the past 99 years as an example:
A. Shanghai Meilin (600073)1999+065438+10/2 bottomed out at 6.57 yuan, and began to push up slowly, and the main force slowly opened positions. On the daily K-line chart, there is a rising pattern of one yin and one yang. In the last wave of panic decline in the market, the stock still rose tenaciously, and when the market reversed, it became the leading stock in this wave of market rise. Perhaps some readers will say that it doesn't matter if Merlin can't buy it at a continuous daily limit. Let's give another example.
B Sunshine shares (0608), 1999 1 10 bottomed out. After 42 days of patient financing, the stock price rose repeatedly with moderate trading volume, and in 2000 12, it opened a position with the decline of the broader market. After that, the main force used fierce means to raise the stock price from111(after ex-rights) on June 3 to 35.29 yuan (after ex-rights) on February 2, 2000, with an amazing increase.
The above two cases fully show the power of the stocks prepared by the main force. So, how can we find this stock simply, objectively and quantitatively? Please take a long view. Take a look at the weekly charts of these two stocks and see the trend before the sharp rise: after bottoming out, they are all positive lines for more than five weeks in a row, and the increase in one week does not exceed 15% (note: the positive line must be more than five weeks, and it may rebound if the time is too short), while the index in the same period is 4 consecutive yinjia 1 resistance positive line, which is not the main force with long-term vision.
Soldiers are unpredictable, and water is unpredictable. In the face of the unpredictable market, we can't break into the world with one stroke and a half. The last two issues introduced the method of finding dark horses in the downward or consolidation trend, but the market will not keep falling. In case investors miss the low and strong stocks of the market, how should they choose the dark horse that may appear in the future in the face of the medium and long-term upward trend of the market? I wonder if readers have thought about the essence of the strong stock pattern in the weak market that we introduced in the last two issues? Its essence is that a large number of stocks change hands in the hands of a willing heart. If a stock wants to soar, its chips must be concentrated. In short, we are looking for stocks whose prices and turnover are better than the broader market, whether it is a slow push or a rapid pull. The most striking feature of our opening positions in this period is that a large number of stocks have changed hands in a short period of time, which is particularly strong in the short-term downward trend of the broader market.
1. Changchun Lanbao (0631):1peaked at 15.60 yuan on June 29, 1999, and the stock fell all the way until it bottomed out at 8.78 yuan on October 27, 2000/kloc-0./kloc The weakness of the stock can be seen, and it can basically be judged that there is no strong village. However, the wind and water turn. On February 17, the internet stocks completely ebbed, the market entered an adjustment, and the stock began to show its face. The market was lowered from February 1770 to February 23rd and fell on February 5th 184 and 10. By the end of the week, it was 45% higher than last week and changed hands by 72%, while the market fell by 2.2 1% that week. According to the market value of circulation, the market changed hands by 2 1.8%. Compared with the two, the main signs of collection are obvious. After a little sorting, the stock rose all the way, reaching a high of 27.90 yuan on March 28, and rose by 3 1 7% every trading day.
2. Shenfang shares (0029): The stock 10 bottomed out at 4.8 1 yuan on October 24th, and then it was weakly consolidated. Prior to this, the performance of the stock was extremely poor, and it was also a weak stock that nobody cared about. However, from February 29th, the stock suddenly went up three times in a row, and then consolidated strongly near the second stop price. On March 6th, the stock index peaked at 1762, and bottomed at 1596 on March 6th, with a drop of 9.42% in eight days. During this period, the stock has maintained a strong consolidation, and broke through in the form of 2 positive clips 1 negative on March 7. At this point, the market has just stabilized. From February 29th to March 17, the stock changed hands 105%, up by 43%, while the market fell by 2.69% in the same period, showing obvious signs of the main force pulling up and opening positions. On April 7th, the maximum value of the deep house reached 15.26 yuan, which increased by 3 16% in 45 trading days.
The above two situations are typical examples of raising positions. In this year's market, Shenzhen CSG and Leshan Power also demonstrated the same opening method. In the practice of operating such stocks, we must pay attention to preventing risks and avoid buying after rising for more than ten consecutive trading days. We should learn to use the breakthrough intervention after consolidation to reduce risks and maintain a good attitude.
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