Outlook 1: The golden decade of China's equity investment has been opened. It is estimated that there will be more than 6,200 A-share listed companies in 2030, with a total market value of 2 10 trillion.
The next decade will be a golden time window for the vigorous development of China's capital market for three reasons:
First, China's sustained and healthy economic growth will constantly spawn a large number of high-quality enterprises and promote the continuous improvement of A-share fundamentals. China's economic restructuring has been accelerated, and the characteristics of high-quality development have become increasingly prominent. The increase in the proportion of emerging industries will comprehensively improve the market valuation system.
Second, the acceleration of capital market reform will consolidate the institutional cornerstone of the direct financing system and significantly improve the efficiency of investment and financing. The comprehensive registration system has opened up the primary and secondary markets, the delisting system has accelerated the survival of the fittest, and the financial opening has moved to a higher level. With the threshold of listing rising outside and falling inside, and the centralized return of stocks in the "new economy", high-quality growth targets will gather in China capital market.
Third, incremental funds at home and abroad will increase the allocation of equity assets in China. The global share of China's economy has been increasing, and its core assets have performed well. The trend of global allocation of A shares will continue to increase. Under the constraints of the new asset management regulations, the expected rate of return of fixed-income products such as wealth management continues to decline; Under the policy of "housing and not speculating", the investment attribute of real estate is obviously reduced, and the relative attraction of equity assets will be significantly enhanced. In the asset allocation of domestic residential departments, the proportion of equity assets will tend to increase.
Under the joint action of emerging high-quality enterprises, more efficient capital market and continuous incremental capital entering the market, the golden decade of China equity investment has been opened. It is estimated that there will be more than 6,200 A-share listed companies by the end of 2030, with a total market value of 2 10 trillion.
Outlook 2: It is estimated that the GDP growth rate of China will be 8.9% in 20021year, and it will remain the main economy with the highest growth rate. In 2030, China's nominal GDP will reach 200 trillion, surpassing the United States to become the world's largest economy.
It is predicted that in 20021year, the GDP growth rate of China will be 8.9%, and that of the developed economies of G8 will be 4%. China will remain the main economy with the highest growth rate in the world. In the cardinal utility, the growth rate of each quarter is "high before and low after", which is mainly driven by consumption and manufacturing investment. The easing policy will moderately return to normal. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of social finance will slow down to 1 1%~ 12% in 20021year, and the fiscal deficit ratio will be moderately reduced to 3.2~3.3%.
The global economy is recovering from chaos. China is ahead of Europe and America, which are ahead of other economies. It is estimated that in 20021year, the global supply of vaccines in COVID-19 will be 5-5.5 billion doses, which can satisfy about 2.6 billion people. The vaccination progress in developed economies is faster than that in emerging economies. Overseas policy is still loose. It is estimated that in 20021year, the net expansion scale of the three major central banks in the United States, Japan and Europe will be 2.2 trillion US dollars, and the fiscal stimulus plan in Europe and America will be about10.8 trillion US dollars.
In the next decade, China will become the most important engine of global economic growth. It is estimated that the retail scale of social consumer goods in China will surpass that of the United States in 20021year, and the GDP will surpass that of the United States in 2025-2030. In 2030, China's nominal GDP will reach 200 trillion, accounting for 22% of the global total, surpassing the United States to become the world's largest economy.
Outlook 3: It is estimated that the new registration system and delisting rules will be fully implemented in 20021,with 650 A-share IPOs listed, financing scale of 550 billion and 40 delisted. It is estimated that the delisting rate of A shares will remain at around 2% from 2022, and the survival of the fittest will be significantly accelerated.
The conditions for the reform of the main board registration system are ripe. It is expected to officially land in the first half of 20021,and the first batch of main board registered companies will issue it in the third quarter. It is estimated that there will be about 650 IPOs in the whole market in 20021year. Judging from the number of queues for you in various sectors, the incremental IPO is still mainly contributed by GEM and science and technology innovation board. It is estimated that the IPO fundraising scale of the whole market is about 550 billion, including 80 billion for the main board, 240 billion for the growth enterprise market and 230 billion for the science and technology innovation board. Under the background of moderate return to normal macro-policies, continuous inflow of incremental funds into A-shares, and the issuer's opportunity to go public, it is expected that IPO financing will have limited impact on market liquidity.
The reform of delisting system has begun to solicit opinions, or will be officially launched at the beginning of 20021. It is estimated that there will be about 40 A-share passive delisting companies in 20021year. After the transition period, it is expected that the delisting rate of A shares will remain at around 2% from 2022, and the survival of the fittest will be significantly accelerated.
Outlook 4: It is estimated that the net inflow of 202 1a shares will be 750 billion, and the trend of institutionalization will accelerate. In the next five years, the market value of foreign capital and public offering will reach 8.3 trillion and 9. 1 trillion respectively, which is the largest source of incremental institutional funds, and the shareholding ratio of professional institutions will exceed 30%.
It is estimated that the net inflow of A shares in 20021year will be 750 billion. Among them, the net inflow of funds mainly includes: 950 billion equity public offering, 200 billion northbound funds, 200 billion security rights, 654.38+00 billion financial rights, 654.38+05 billion private placement and financing funds, mainly including: IPO funds diverted 550 billion, and the net outflow of industrial capital decreased by 300 billion.
In the next five years, domestic residents and overseas funds will increase the allocation of A shares, and the proportion of products allocated by domestic residents will continue to increase. The proportion of professional institutions' shareholding in the market value of A-share circulation will increase significantly, and the proportion of retail investors' shareholding will decrease rapidly.
It is estimated that the market value of A-shares in free circulation will reach 105 trillion by the end of 2025, in which the shareholding ratio of professional institutions will increase from the current 2 1.5% to 30.5%, the shareholding ratio of industrial capital will decrease from 50% to 47.5%, and the shareholding ratio of retail investors will decrease from 28.5% to 22%.
In the next five years, foreign capital and public offering will be the biggest sources of incremental institutional funds. By the end of 2025, it is estimated that the market value of public offering will increase from the current 4. 1 trillion to 9. 1 trillion, accounting for 8.7%; With the factor weight of A-shares included in the international index further increased, the market value of foreign-owned shares will increase from the current 2.8 trillion to 8.3 trillion, accounting for 8%; The market value of private placement will increase from the current 2. 1 trillion to 4.5 trillion, accounting for 4.1%; The stock market value of insurance will increase from the current 1.6 trillion to 3.7 trillion; The market value of bank wealth managers will increase from the current 0.3 trillion to10.8 trillion.
Outlook 5: It is estimated that the new asset management regulations in 20021year will not be fully extended, the allocation of residents' assets will be accelerated, and equity assets will remain the most important allocation direction. Over one trillion funds will flow into A shares through institutional products.
The transition period of the new asset management regulations will end on 202 1, and it is not expected to be fully extended. After the implementation of the new cash management and financial management regulations, the development direction will basically be the benchmark money fund, which is expected to affect about 5.4 trillion stock products. The asset side of these products will turn to short-term and high-rated varieties, and the expected rate of return will drop rapidly. Other products whose new asset management regulations expire will also experience a similar process of downward rate of return and scale compression.
With the decline in the rate of return of fixed-income products and the adjustment of "living in a house and not speculating", equity assets are still the most important allocation direction in the choice of domestic residents' asset reallocation in 20021year. It is estimated that in 20021year, more than one trillion residents' funds will flow into A shares through institutional product channels such as public offering, insurance and bank financing.
Outlook 6: It is predicted that global commodity prices will rise rapidly in the first half of 20021and the central prices will continue to rise in the next three years. According to the annual average price, the expected price increase from high to low is: agricultural products, crude oil, basic metals, precious metals and thermal coal.
Under the background of loose global liquidity and gradual economic recovery, demand recovery and supply bottleneck are superimposed, and it is expected that the middle price of bulk commodities will continue to rise in the next three years. Demand-side recovery is the most important variable in the 202 1 commodity market, but the supply bottleneck and long-term low inventory caused by the production cycle will support the sustained upward trend of commodity prices in the medium term. Coupled with liquidity and inflation expectations, the overall commodity prices performed well in the first half of 20021year.
According to the annual average price, it is estimated that the increase of commodity prices in 20021year is: agricultural products, crude oil, basic metals, precious metals and thermal coal. First of all, the weather affects the output, and the prices of agricultural products are improving, especially corn and soybeans with a large gap between supply and demand. Secondly, demand continues to recover, and Brent crude oil price center is expected to rebound to $55/barrel at 202 1. Thirdly, the supply of copper mines is relatively rigid, and the low inventory magnifies the price elasticity brought about by the recovery of demand, and the copper price rises periodically. Fourth, the rebound of inflation in the United States has become the core driving force to push up the gold price of 202 1, and it is expected that the gold price will return to the previous high point. Finally, the supply and demand are basically balanced and the coal price center is expected to remain stable.
Outlook 7: It is predicted that in the third quarter of 200212002, the US dollar index will fall below 85, the RMB will rise to 6.2 against the US dollar, the US dollar will enter a medium-and long-term depreciation stage, and foreign capital will increase China's asset allocation.
It is predicted that from 2020, the global share of the US economy will continue to decline, and the US dollar will enter a medium-and long-term depreciation stage. In the future, the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy will be stronger and last longer than that of the European Central Bank. After Yellen becomes the US Treasury Secretary, the direction of "fiscal monetization" will be more clear, the supply of US dollars will be abundant, and the spread between Europe and the United States will lead to the weakening of the US dollar against the euro.
With the widespread vaccination of vaccines, it is predicted that the virus infection coefficient will decrease in the second and third quarters of 2002/KLOC-0, and the global risk appetite will pick up, which will promote the trend of capital returning to risky assets such as non-US currencies. It is expected that the US dollar index will continue to decline after the New Year's Eve, falling below 85 in the third quarter. Then, as the expansion of the Federal Reserve slows down, the US economy recovers and the yield of long-term government bonds rises, the US dollar index is expected to stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter.
Excellent epidemic prevention and control, high spread between China and the United States and leading economic growth will continue to support the appreciation of the RMB. It is expected that the high point of this round of onshore exchange rate appreciation will be in the third quarter of 202 1, which will reach about 6.2.
It is estimated that in 20021year, foreign capital will continue to allocate more China, with a net inflow of A shares exceeding 200 billion through the land stock channel, and a net inflow of China bond market exceeding 1.5 trillion through direct investment in the inter-bank bond market and bond channels.
Outlook 8: It is estimated that the profit growth rate of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index will reach 15% in 20021year. In the next three years, the Hong Kong market will usher in the centralized return of about 40 China stock market leaders, enter a stage of rapid development, and the new economic leaders will become the new protagonists.
It is estimated that the profit growth rate of 20021Hang Seng Index will increase from -6.5% in 2020 to 15%, and Hong Kong stocks will usher in the double repair of valuation and profit, attracting a net inflow of southbound funds exceeding HK$ 500 billion.
In the next three years, the Hong Kong market will concentrate on reaping the dividends from the return of China Stock Exchange. The Foreign Corporate Liability Act of the United States has come into effect. According to the contents of the bill, we judge that the Chinese stocks in the US stocks whose financial reports cannot be audited will be banned from trading around the second quarter of 2024. It is expected that the Hong Kong market will become the first choice for the return of Chinese stocks, and the number of Chinese stock market leaders representing the "new economy" will accelerate. It is estimated that the number of returnees in the next three years will be about 15, 15 and 10 respectively. Secondary listed companies are allowed to be included in the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the "new economy" leader will replace the traditional sector and become the new protagonist of Hong Kong stocks in the future.
The return of China Stock Exchange has stimulated market enthusiasm, and the interconnection mechanism between the Mainland and Hong Kong has been gradually improved. The construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has added impetus to Hong Kong. As a hub at home and abroad, Hong Kong's capital market will play an increasingly prominent role and enter a stage of rapid development.
It is estimated that the profit growth rate of 202 1 CSI 800 will increase from -2.8% in 2020 to 14.7%. Among them, the profit growth rate of non-financial sectors has greatly increased from 1.3% in 2020 to 24.9%.
202 1 the domestic interest rate center first stabilized and then fell. It is estimated that the yield of 10-year treasury bonds will run in the range of 2.6%~3.2%, fluctuating at a high level in the first quarter, declining in the second and third quarters, and there will be upward pressure in the fourth quarter.
Security is the premise of development. Under the bottom line thinking, the main investment line under the overall national security concept has more lasting policy support, among which the high-quality track is worthy of medium-and long-term layout, focusing on five security areas: science and technology, energy, food, national defense and resources.
Secondly, in the field of energy security, China will gradually establish a clean and low-carbon energy system to promote sustainable development, among which photovoltaic and wind power with great potential and high safety, as well as China electrification supply chain in the global intelligent wave of automobile electrification have the greatest development potential.
Thirdly, in the field of food security, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized seeds for the first time and food security again. It is expected that the commercialization process of genetically modified corn is expected to accelerate, and the overall planting industry chain will usher in the triple benefits of rising prices, technological changes and policy support.
Fourth, in the field of national defense security, the Tenth Five-Year Plan is an important stage for our army to accelerate the modernization of weapons and equipment after mechanization, and the military industry will continue its high prosperity and maintain rapid growth in the first year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
This article is from CITIC Securities.