As early as the eve of the Sydney Olympic Games in 2000, daniel johnson, a professor at the University of Colorado in the United States, used the remaining funds of the project to study with an undergraduate research assistant whether economic factors could predict the number of medals won by countries in the Olympic Games.
"This is a fairly simple model, and we are surprised by the accuracy of the prediction results of the model," said Professor Johnson. His model includes five basic data of the participating countries: GDP, total population, political system type (dictatorship, military and political affairs, leadership of the Democratic Party or the * * * production party), climate (days when the average temperature is below zero) and whether it is the host country.
This exploratory study has not yet been published. When the results of the competition were announced, the coincidence degree of the model prediction was as high as 95-96%, which attracted people's attention. "Our accuracy makes us feel that we have made some mistakes," said the professor. Then came the telephone consultation, including two countries asking for advice on how to prepare for the next Olympic Games.
The professor, who claimed to have no athletic talent, said humorously, "It may be unwise for me to make suggestions. I don't know how to win more medals in the Olympic Games, probably to increase GDP? "
Professor Johnson's model accurately predicted the number of medals in each summer and winter Olympic Games since 2000. Before the Beijing Olympic Games on August 8th, he released the latest forecast.
According to the model, the performance of the American team is similar to that of the 2004 Athens Olympic Games. The total number of medals will reach 103, and the number of gold medals will increase slightly from 33 to 35. Russia is expected to rank second in the medal list, winning 28 gold medals and 95 medals.
The model predicts that the biggest winner this year will be China. As the host, China is expected to win 89 medals, bringing the total number of gold medals to 44. This number of gold medals is the same as that of 1996 of the US team in Atlanta Olympic Games.
Generally speaking, the organizers of the Olympic Games will take advantage of the favorable conditions of local operations, and 25% will exceed the level. China won 32 gold medals in the last Athens Olympic Games, and since 2004, China's GDP has also improved significantly. At the same time, as a world sports power, China's fighting spirit to win the competition is also remarkable.
Professor Johnson emphasized that the prediction result of this model is not to compare the number of medals in different countries, but to evaluate whether a national sports team has reached the expected level. The number of medals won by a country is also affected by the population size, the number of athletes trained and the number of athletes participating in the competition.
Of course, Professor Johnson is not the only economist who makes a scientific prediction on the attribution of Olympic medals. Last week, PricewaterhouseCoopers, an internationally renowned accounting firm, predicted that China would rank first in the world with 88 medals, followed by the United States and Russia with 87 and 79 medals respectively.
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