Stock is a kind of securities issued by a joint-stock company to shareholders to prove its shares. It can be used as transaction object and collateral, and it is one of the main long-term credit tools in the capital market. Bian Xiao compiled the stock market forecast analysis of 202 1 here for your reference. I hope you can gain something from reading!
Viewpoint: The signals of stagflation and overheating are gradually released. Although economic development and recovery are still accelerating, they have entered a later stage. With the late stage of economic development and recovery, the marginal liquidity is tightening, and the subsequent sharp tightening will also be the market trend, which is not good news for the stock market. Moreover, after the decline since mid-February, the layout of the bull market in the sales market is also expected to change greatly. The bull market is still not over, but it has entered the late stage of the bull market, and the overall opportunity is not outstanding. Pay attention to local sectors and local bull market opportunities.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened higher and strengthened, and the new houses began to fluctuate after the opening. The three indexes in the session fluctuated, and the automobile chip sector led the gains. Third-generation semiconductor materials (5 12480), brewing, electronic components and other sectors were also among the top gainers, while steel, electricity and carbon trading led the decline. In terms of individual stocks, more than 2,000 stocks rose, rising and falling on the basis of the basis.
Throughout the day, technology stocks such as semiconductor materials (5 12480) have strengthened again, and this is after yesterday, the rebound of semiconductor materials (5 12480) in the past two days is close to 10%. This also fully shows that after the adjustment in the second half of last year, many targets of semiconductor materials (5 12480) have oversold. Driven by the boost of demand and the performance of leading products, this sector has hidden signs of rebound. There are two key factors in the rebound of semiconductor materials (5 12480): on the one hand, after the continuous decline of the sales market, the demand for oversold rebound is gradually coming, while the target stage of semiconductor materials (5 12480), which began to be adjusted in the second half of last year, has been fully adjusted, and there is a large demand for short-term rebound here; On the other hand, the price increase of semiconductor materials (5 12480) stimulated. The demand for semiconductor materials (5 12480) is strong, and the supply of production capacity is very tight, so the short-term stimulus to many targets is natural. On the evening of March 3 1, SMIC (0098 1), the first brother of science and technology innovation board, disclosed the 2020 annual report. With the steady growth of profits, it actually boosted the stock price and other stocks in this field.
However, it's still not very good here. First of all, the demand for semiconductor materials (5 12480) is strong, and the performance of leading products has been boosted. However, the valuation of many growth stocks such as science and technology is still relatively high, even after the previous decline, it is still relatively "expensive". At the present stage, the probability of hiding a large-scale rebound is not great, especially in the late bull market, when the liquidity margin is tightened, the rebound space of growth stocks is even worse. And most of the growth targets, in fact, the performance also has great uncertainty, in the quarterly cycle, _ or be careful as well. More importantly, during the rebound here, the volume of transactions continued to shrink, and today it also ushered in a sharp decline. The sales market sentiment has not picked up, and there is still the possibility of repetition.
So, at the moment, I don't care about the growth type of these technologies. Analysis chart of stock market forecast in 2020 At present, the economy is still in recovery and accelerating recovery. The trend of improvement in the sales market remains unchanged, but the marginal tightening continues under the stable liquidity, and the bull market may have entered the later stage.
On the whole, we can care about the game opportunities of stocks in stages, but on the whole, we will wait and see and wait patiently for new opportunities to bargain-hunting. In the short term, we can pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities supported by "oversold+performance", and in the later stage of the bull market, we can pay attention to several directions as a whole: 1, financial stocks, focusing on tracking banks. In the later stage of recovery, the bank's performance improved, the asset quality improved, and the liquidity tightened, which led to the funds turning to low-valued depressions to avoid risks. Therefore, the relatively low-valued financial sector may attract more institutional funds; 2. Some cyclical stocks, such as colored stocks. Because the recovery of economic development has not yet been completed, cyclical stocks still have opportunities for relative returns, but at this time it is not appropriate to participate in heavy positions and have a catalytic theme boost with colleagues who are more concerned about color; 3. The core dominant type in consumption. The bull market is incomplete, the valuation will not be true forever, and consumer stocks have relatively high cost performance and strong capital carrying capacity, which is one of the best choices for passive allocation of funds.
Tip:
1. commission ratio: it is an index to measure the relative strength of the purchase order in a certain period. The calculation formula is commission ratio = (number of commission buyers-number of commission sellers)/(number of commission buyers+number of commission sellers) × 100%.
2. Volume ratio: it is an indicator to measure the relative volume, that is, the ratio of the average volume per minute after the opening of the market to the average volume per minute in the past five trading days.
3. P/E ratio: It is one of the most commonly used indicators to evaluate whether the stock price level is reasonable. Divide the stock price by the annual earnings per share (the same result can be obtained by dividing the market value of the company by the annual profits attributable to shareholders).
4. P/B ratio: refers to the ratio of stock price to net assets per share. P/B ratio can be used for investment analysis. Generally speaking, the investment value of stocks with lower P/B ratio is higher, and vice versa.
5. Opening price [2]: 9: 00 a.m.15-9: 25 call auction time. During the period of call auction, the automatic matching system of the exchange only kept matching. After the bidding time is over, the matching system will generate the opening price of the stock on that day according to the principle of call auction. According to the regulations of Shanghai Stock Exchange, if there is no transaction within half an hour after the opening of the market, the closing price of the previous day is the opening price of the day. Sometimes, if a security has not been traded for several days, the stock exchange will put forward a guiding price according to the price trend of the securities entrusted by customers as the opening price after trading. The average price or average selling price on the first day of securities listing is the opening price.
6. Closing price [2]: The closing price refers to the transaction price of the last transaction of a security before the end of the trading activities of the stock exchange. If there is no transaction on that day, the last transaction price is taken as the closing price, because the closing price is the standard of the current market and the basis of the opening price of the next trading day, which can be used to predict the future securities market; Therefore, when analyzing the market, investors generally take the closing price as the calculation basis.
7. Quote: It means that investors are not active in buying and selling, but take a wait-and-see attitude, so that the change of the stock price on that day is very small. This situation is called quotation.
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