Today’s pig prices
From the Mid-Autumn Festival to now, the price increase of pigs has remained strong, and the previously expected rise and fall in pig prices after the festival has not happened. The official also used the “release” policy. Although pig prices continue to rise at a high level despite the "storage + negotiation" method of stabilizing prices and ensuring supply, the final analysis is that there is still a shortage of pigs in the market.
According to Zhuhaoduo data monitoring, the average price of three-yuan pigs nationwide today is 23.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg from yesterday. It has risen for three consecutive days since the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the cumulative price increase has been 0.31 yuan. yuan/kg, the increase is still relatively considerable. If this trend continues, the price of pigs is expected to break through the 12 yuan mark before the National Day! Faced with the surge in pig prices, piglet prices are facing a "collapse".
Today’s piglet price
According to Zhuhaoduo data monitoring, the national average price of 15 kilogram piglets today is 42.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from yesterday. Since the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of piglets Prices have continued to fall, with a cumulative drop of 1.36 yuan/kg. In just three days, piglets have earned more than 20 yuan less.
Not only that, looking back at the price of piglets this month, it dropped from the highest price of 47.43 yuan/kg on August 16 to the lowest price today of 42.97 yuan/kg. It has dropped in less than a month. 4.46 yuan/kg, there is no market for piglets?
To be specific, let’s first take a look at the price of 15 kilogram piglets in major provinces and cities across the country on September 13:
The mainstream price of 15 kilogram piglets outside Jilin Province is 600-825 yuan/ The mainstream price of 15kg foreign ternary piglets in Guangdong, Shandong and Hubei provinces is 500-800 yuan/head; the mainstream price of 15kg foreign ternary piglets in Hebei and Henan provinces is 600-750 yuan/head.
It can be seen that the price of pigs in most areas is between 500-800.
Live pigs are going up, piglets are going down, why?
The fundamental reason why pig prices can still rise strongly at a high level is that there is still a shortage of pigs in the market. In November last year, the number of reproductive sows was severely reduced, resulting in a relatively small number of live pigs. In addition, breeding Households have strong bullish sentiments, and the phenomenon of holding prices high is common. Coupled with the gradual recovery of the consumer market, the price of live pigs "cannot fall."
It stands to reason that the price of piglets will rise as the price of live pigs rises. In reality, the opposite is true. Why is this?
The price trend of live pigs is indeed good now, and the profits of live pigs are also very considerable. However, "the tide is turning". The price of pigs and profits are so high this year. Everyone wants to get a piece of the live pig market, and there are more people selling pigs. , if there are more pens to be replenished, the number of pigs sold next year will increase, and the price of pigs will most likely fall.
Last year the farmers suffered such serious losses, it can be said that "once bitten by a snake, you will be afraid of the well rope for ten years." Everyone has suffered losses and does not dare to blindly repair the pen.
Not only that, the cost of restocking this year is still quite high. The price of piglets has continued to fall but is still at a high level.
Furthermore, due to the impact of power cuts, the operating rate of feed mills is not high, the climate is dry, and the output of soybean meal is not high. However, downstream demand is strong. In September, more than 50 feed companies across the country announced price increases, with most of the increases being 50-250 yuan/ton.
Feed price is also a big obstacle that hinders farmers from replenishing their stocks!
Finally, farmers will choose to restock the piglets when the pig price is good during the period when the piglets are released. However, now the restocking piglets will not be released until around March next year. At that time, there is no good support for pig prices, and the trend of pig prices Without enough clarity, farmers dare not take the risk.
So, now is not a good time to replenish the pens. If there are less pens to be replenished, the price of piglets will naturally fall. The market still needs to wait and see. There is still hope for the price of piglets to increase!