Analysts said that it is not uncommon for international crude oil prices to plummet continuously in history, mainly because the varieties are greatly influenced by macro factors, the market turnover is huge and the cyclical trend is strong. In the short term, the supply and demand structure of the crude oil market is still in a weak pattern, and the oil price in the market outlook will still show a pattern of falling easily and rising difficultly.
Oil prices fell into a technical bear market.
On June 3rd 10, both American Oil and BU Oil hit four-year highs of $76.90/barrel and $86.74/barrel. After a lapse of more than one month, on June 9th 165438, the minimum of American Oil and BU Oil dropped to 59.26 USD/barrel and 69. 13 USD/barrel, respectively, which was lower than the previous period.
Li Lei, an energy analyst at Meierya Futures, said that there are three main reasons for this round of sharp drop in oil prices: First, the crude oil market is in a cycle of rising stocks and falling prices. Commercial crude oil inventories in the United States increased significantly for seven consecutive weeks, exceeding the five-year average, and oil prices turned down under the pressure of inventory.
Second, after the United States formally sanctioned Iran, it exempted eight countries, including China, and the biggest bullish factor disappeared, which accelerated the decline of oil prices. Third, the IMF predicts that the economic growth of major crude oil consuming countries will slow down in 20 19, and the downside risks of the global economy will weaken the demand for crude oil, and the medium and long-term oil prices will face greater pressure.
1early October 165438+ survey data show that the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased by 400,000 barrels per day compared with last month. At the same time, Russia's output in June reached a new high of 5438+ 10, increasing by 50,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 1 14 1 10,000 barrels per day.
"Concerns about oversupply and slowing demand have led to the continued weakness of crude oil." Tang Wei, an analyst at Qianhai Futures, said that the US sanctions against Iranian crude oil exports have landed, and the sanctions with exemption clauses are insufficient. On the supply side, some major oil-producing countries have greatly increased their production under the pressure of making up for the possible gap, and there has been a certain dislocation between them, which has led to concerns that the supply may be excessive in the short term.
Dong Chen, an analyst at Baocheng Futures, pointed out that the oil production of the United States, the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia is at or near the highest level in history, with a daily output of over 33 million barrels, accounting for one third of the global oil production.
It's very strange that continuous yin falls are rare.
1October 29th 10 to1October 9th 10, WTI crude oil fell for 10 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of11.37. According to the data of Refenitif Company, US crude oil futures prices have fallen for ten consecutive trading days, the longest decline since July 1984.
In fact, it is not uncommon for international crude oil prices to plummet continuously in history. For example, according to the data of Wenhua Finance and Economics, the main continuous contract of WTI crude oil is from March 22, 20 16 to April 4, 20 16, and the daily line lasts for 9 consecutive days. 6 Lian Yin and 7 Lian Yin appeared many times.
Chaotic Tiancheng Futures Research Institute said that, unlike other commodities, the impact of crude oil supply and demand on crude oil prices is obviously lower. The strength of the dollar, geopolitics, the policies of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and so on. Will have a major impact on oil prices. The reasons for the continuous decline of oil prices are generally divided into three situations: first, geopolitical risks lead to the sharp rise and fall of oil prices after the pulse rise; Second, the pessimistic expectation that the marginal supply of crude oil will increase greatly after the failure of the OPEC production reduction agreement; The third is the impact of the global economic crisis on the demand for crude oil. Tang Wei said:
"The crude oil market is huge, with many participants, fully competitive market prices and strong trend performance."
On June165438+1October1day, the oversight committee of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries held a meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss possible production reduction measures in February 65438 and February 20 19. Although the meeting did not reach any substantial agreement on production reduction, the signal released by oil ministers before the meeting and the statement made by Saudi Energy Minister Farih after the meeting that the average daily supply of crude oil in Saudi Arabia in June 5438+February will be reduced by 500,000 barrels compared with that in June165438+1October, which can stabilize the decline of oil prices.
As of165438+1October 12 17:40, American oil rose by 0.78%; Report $60.66/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.24% to 7 1.04 USD/barrel. Tang Wei said:
"The shortage of crude oil supply caused by human interference is unsustainable. With the increase of crude oil production of the United States, Brazil, China and other non-OPEC+members, the marginal effect of OPEC+production reduction meeting is declining. Due to the guarantee of the supply side, the impact of the demand side on the price in the future will be more prominent. "
Li Lei said that the production reduction agreement exists in name only, and the implementation of production reduction mainly depends on Saudi Arabia and Russia. Since April this year, the implementation of production reduction in major oil-producing countries has been loosened. The crude oil production of Saudi Arabia and Russia increased by 6 1 10,000 barrels per day and 390,000 barrels per day respectively, and the production reduction agreement existed in name only.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are the main forces of the production reduction agreement. If the two countries re-implement a higher implementation rate of production reduction instead of relying on passive production reduction like Iran and Venezuela, the crude oil market will re-enter the stage of inventory reduction and rebalancing, so that the price will exceed the fiscal break-even oil price of oil-producing countries.
Is the bear coming?
At present, the voice of crude oil entering the bear market is getting louder and louder. There are two main reasons for holding the view that oil prices have fallen into a bear market. First, the high oil price 10 fell by more than 20%. Second, the recent WTI and Brent forward curves have changed from regression to futures premium structure (forward premium), which is usually considered as one of the characteristics of the bear market in crude oil market.
Chaotic Tiancheng Futures Research Institute believes that the drop in oil prices just squeezed out the risk premium and rushed back. Due to the regulation of the supply side by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the downward space of oil prices is limited, and it has not really entered the downward channel, but has returned to the shock range. Dong Chen believes that the oil price is currently in the medium-term adjustment stage, which is a staged correction to the rise since June 2065438+2007.
In the short term, the supply and demand structure of the crude oil market is still in a weak pattern, and the oil price in the market outlook will still show a pattern of falling easily and rising difficultly. The external oil price WTI may continue to drop to $55/barrel, Brent crude oil may continue to drop to $65/barrel, and the domestic crude oil futures contract 18 12 will also face the risk of continuing to fall, with short-term attention to the interval support of 475-485 yuan/barrel.
In the medium term, with the arrival of the peak season of heating oil consumption in North America and the return of geographical factors in the Middle East, there are positive factors in the future oil price rise, and there is motivation and expectation for the oil price to rebound in the medium term. Tang Wei said:
"The OPEC+meeting in June 5438+February is unlikely to significantly tighten supply, and the probability of increasing production is even smaller. Macroeconomic performance has a great influence on prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will fluctuate weakly and the downward trend will continue. "
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(Article Source: China Securities Network)