Since 2009, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery has stood out in the spring breeze of new energy vehicle market. But it didn't last long. From 20 16 onwards, with the deepening of electrification, passenger cars have gradually become the main force in the promotion of new energy vehicles. In order to catch up with the pace of fuel vehicles as soon as possible and shorten the technology gap, the domestic policy has a rather "radical" technology orientation, the limitation of subsidy threshold and the publicity of car companies on the importance of endurance, which makes the field of new energy passenger cars enter a leap stage of "endurance is justice". In order to pursue high subsidies, new energy automobile enterprises gradually give up the use of lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium ternary (NMC) battery, which has its inherent advantages in battery density, making it the best choice for automobile enterprises in the early stage of the development of electric passenger cars. According to public information, in the field of passenger cars, the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery was as high as 40% in 20 14, but in 20 19, this figure has dropped to less than 15%. For a time, it seems only a matter of time before lithium ferrous phosphate exits the passenger car market.
However, in April 2020, when Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, appeared with a brand-new "blade battery", he proposed "redefining the safety standards of new energy vehicles and changing the battery pattern of pure electric vehicles! Grand vision. At that time, it seemed that Rainbow Chuanfu's strong marketing rhetoric was more about his new battery, but half a year later, the blade battery has not been popularized, and lithium iron phosphate battery, as its essence, has quickly launched a counterattack in the market.
With the exploration and precipitation of new energy market by car companies for many years, the application and positioning of new energy passenger cars in the market has gradually become clear, and endurance is no longer the highest factor affecting consumers' choice. 20 19 After the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached its peak, the battery safety and stability of pure electric vehicles exposed subsequently became the focus of consumers' attention when buying cars. Coupled with the continuous decline in subsidies and the blessing of new technologies for power batteries, the cost and stability advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are gradually emerging.
According to Wood Mackenzie (Wood? McKinsey's latest report predicts that by 2030, the market share of lithium ferrous phosphate will increase to over 30%. Many people in the industry also expressed the view that lithium ferrous phosphate is expected to return to the mainstream of the market.
BYD's share price has continued to rise this year.
For a long time, lithium iron phosphate battery has been regarded as the choice of low-end electric vehicles because of its inherent low energy density and poor low temperature resistance. In order to prolong the battery life, the increasing number of battery packs makes it difficult for lithium ferrous phosphate cars with long battery life to enter passenger cars. An important turning point to solve this problem is BYD's substantial optimization of internal modules of lithium iron phosphate battery this year. "Blade battery" indirectly improves the battery energy density per unit space by reducing the battery arrangement spacing, thus solving the problem of low energy density of lithium ferrous phosphate. At the same time, the inherent high stability of lithium ferrous phosphate greatly improves the probability of internal short circuit fire.
On the other hand, due to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles in China, some provinces and cities such as Shenzhen directly canceled subsidies, and the demand for affordable electric vehicles soared, which also led to the cost control of batteries becoming an urgent problem for car companies. Cheaper lithium ferrous phosphate was once again included in the optional range. The data show that in lithium ferrous phosphate, the direct material accounts for about 75% of the cost of cathode material, and the manufacturing cost accounts for about 20%. Therefore, the decline in cost is mainly due to the decline in raw material prices. Since 20 16, the prices of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate have fallen sharply, and the supply of lithium ferrous phosphate cathode materials has been in excess, resulting in the cathode materials of lithium ferrous phosphate falling from the highest in the first quarter of 20 1 12000 yuan/ton to 4.5 yuan/ton in the third quarter of 20 19. 10,000 yuan/ton, down 59.8%. According to the current price, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery is more than 10% lower than that of ternary battery widely used at present, and the sufficient supply of upstream raw materials is expected to continue to bring down the cost. Coupled with the safety and reliability of lithium iron phosphate battery, lithium iron phosphate battery does have a considerable market prospect in the future.
However, unlike Wang Chuanfu's idea, the rise of lithium ferrous phosphate can change the supply pattern of the battery market, but it cannot redefine the market.
Unlike BYD's gamble on lithium ferrous phosphate, the old rival Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has always adhered to the strategy of parallel lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium ternary batteries. According to the distribution of domestic power battery installed capacity in 20 19, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., as a well-deserved electrical system supplier in China, ranked first with a market share of 5 1%, while the market share of lithium ferrous phosphate was as high as 57%. Even so, with the rapid growth of lithium ferrous phosphate this year, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. still chooses to continue to take ternary lithium battery as its core competitiveness. The main reason is that ternary lithium material has more advantages than lithium ferrous phosphate in potential. Therefore, when the "8 1 1" ternary lithium battery of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. suffered heavy losses due to safety problems this year, it did not choose to give up the direction of ternary lithium, and its internal focus turned to "523". Coupled with the research and development of cobalt-free batteries, it shows that Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. still hopes to regain its former technological advantages in this field. Obviously, the dispute over battery materials is still inconclusive, but judging from the current research and development status and actual installation performance, the application gap between lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium ternary is indeed further shortened after the battery safety is taken into comprehensive consideration.
On the market side, this situation is especially reflected in the product system of Tesla, the "wind vane" of electric vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla has staged a wave of repeated ticket jumps. So far, models? The crazy price reduction three times in three years confirms Tesla's idea of switching to lithium iron phosphate batteries at the beginning of the year, with the purpose of further reducing costs and thus making lower entry prices. If we only consider the cost from the consumer's point of view, the lithium ferrous phosphate model is also very attractive in price. However, the price reduction belongs to the price reduction, and Tesla's choice in the dark is actually indecisive. In June this year, the terms of the battery manufacturing agreement between Tesla and Panasonic continued until 2023. At this point, Tesla not only joined hands with Panasonic NMC and LFP Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., but also promoted the self-developed 4680 lithium battery products in a high-profile manner on the battery day not long ago. The intention of multi-directional queuing is self-evident.
Only in a short time, if the consumption demand of electric vehicles has not been further improved, or the application scenarios of pure electric vehicles have not changed dramatically, then the current LFP and NMC technologies can actually meet the needs of manufacturers and consumers. Therefore, in the short term, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery will also show an inevitable upward trend because of the improvement of safety demand at this stage. The difference between the two is that after years of development, the energy density of lithium ferrous phosphate battery is close to the theoretical limit, and the future optimization direction is more inclined to improve the module similar to "blade battery", thus giving play to its low-cost advantage; As a more potential cathode material, lithium ternary will continue to reduce the cobalt content and cost under the research and development of suppliers, which may provide more high-end possibilities for manufacturers in the future.
Of course, at present, the relationship between LFP and NMC is just like the precipitated new energy vehicle fuel vehicle, which is not opposite but parallel. Macroscopically, it is recognized in the industry that the unified form of automotive power batteries in the future is mostly solid-state batteries. As a transitional plan before this final option, the advantages and disadvantages of the two are passed on to consumers, but it depends on what choices the car companies make for product positioning.
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