Up to now, at least 19 brokers have disclosed their operating results in 2022. On the whole, in 2022, the performance of both large brokers and small and medium-sized brokers generally encountered "Waterloo". 19 brokers, nearly half of the net profit fell by more than 50%, and only 10% net profit increased positively. I'm afraid the brokerage industry will break the trend of continuous growth of revenue and net profit for four years since 20 18.
It is worth mentioning that the brokerage sector has been hot recently and continues to outperform the broader market. Just on Thursday, the brokerage index rose by 1.99%, and Guo Sheng Financial Holdings and Hualin Securities went up daily. The industry believes that the brokerage sector has outperformed the broader market recently, on the one hand because of compensatory growth, and on the other hand, as the market continues to rise, the fundamentals of the brokerage sector are expected to exceed expectations in 2023.
The performance of seven brokers was released.
On the evening of 65438+ 10 19, seven securities companies, including Shenwan Hongyuan, Founder Securities, Yuekai Securities, Admiralty fortune securities, Dongguan Securities, zhongshan securities and Essence Securities, disclosed the 2022 annual performance forecast or unaudited financial statements.
Specifically, Shenwan Hongyuan's performance forecast shows that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan to 3.5 billion yuan in 2022, while in 20021year, Shenwan Hongyuan's net profit reached 9.398 billion yuan, down 62.76% to 7 1.27% year-on-year. Regarding the reason for the sharp decline in performance, Shen Wanhongyuan said that the main reason was that the domestic capital market fluctuated more in 2022, the stock and debt collapsed and the trading volume shrank. As a result, part of the company's business income decreased year-on-year, and the expected credit impairment loss increased year-on-year.
Shen Wanhongyuan also said that the company focused on high-quality development, steadily promoted the balanced development of light capital business and heavy capital business, and optimized asset quality and business structure. The company will continue to adhere to the general tone of steady progress, constantly enhance the core competitiveness of its business, strive to improve the steady profitability of capital, and better serve the overall improvement of the economy.
Founder Securities is one of the few brokers with pre-increased performance so far. Founder Securities expects to achieve a net profit of191300 million yuan to 2.095 billion yuan in 2022, up 5% year-on-year to 15%. For the contrarian growth of performance, Founder Securities said that in 2022, in the face of complex business environment, the company implemented the development theme of "new starting point, new kinetic energy, new height", realized the steady development of various businesses, and the main financial indicators improved steadily.
CICC also released the unaudited main financial data of its subsidiary, CICC fortune securities, in 2022, with annual revenue of 5.942 billion yuan and net profit of 1.375438+0 billion yuan. In terms of projects, the net income from fees and commissions reached 3.99 billion yuan, and the loss from changes in fair value reached 654.38+73.8 million yuan, which dragged down the performance.
In addition, SDIC Capital released the unaudited financial statements of its subsidiary Essence Securities in 2022. In 2022, Essence Securities achieved a total operating income of 9.588 billion yuan and a net profit of 26 1. 1 billion yuan.
Nearly half of brokers' net profit fell by more than 50%.
Up to now, at least 19 brokers have disclosed their operating results in 2022. Among them, listed brokers including Founder Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Northeast Securities, CITIC Securities and Guoyuan Securities take the form of performance forecast and performance express; In addition, more than ten NEEQ subsidiaries or listed companies disclosed the unaudited financial statements in 2022.
On the whole, in 2022, the performance of both large brokers and small and medium-sized brokers generally encountered "Waterloo". 19 brokers, nearly half of the brokers' net profit fell by more than 50%. At present, only 1 brokerage has turned losses, and the net profit of two brokers has achieved positive growth. This also means that the brokerage industry may break the trend of revenue and net profit growth for four consecutive years since 20 18.
Specifically, among the listed brokers who released performance forecasts/performance reports, the net profit of "One Brother" CITIC Securities also declined slightly in 2022. In 2022, the net profit of Northeast Securities fell by more than 85%, and that of Shenwan Hongyuan fell by 60% to 70% from the nearly 10 billion net profit of 202 1.
In addition, some New Third Board brokers or brokerage subsidiaries of listed companies released unaudited financial statements in 2022. Among them, the net profit of Huaxin Securities, Guo Sheng Securities, AVIC Securities, Cai Xiang Securities, Guodu Securities, Ying Da Securities and many other brokers all decreased by more than 50% year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that Macquarie Securities (formerly Netcom Securities) achieved a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan in 2022, turning losses into profits, but its revenue in that year was only 63 million yuan, and the main reason for turning losses was non-operating income.
Judging from the reasons for the decline of brokerage performance, the trading activity in the securities market declined last year, and the secondary market fluctuated greatly, which led to the decline of self-operated business and brokerage business income of many brokers, and the investment banking business of some brokers shrank.
For example, Northeast Securities said that the profitability of the company's investment business and investment banking business was less than expected, which led to a sharp decline in the company's overall performance. Guo Shengjin said that the main reason is that the net income of self-operated and brokerage business with relatively high income has decreased significantly; At the same time, the company's investment income dropped sharply year-on-year, and the provision for asset impairment increased year-on-year.
In 2023, the fundamentals of securities firms are expected to exceed expectations.
Despite the general decline in performance in 2022, the market performance of brokerage stocks has been very prosperous recently. On Thursday, the brokerage index rose by 1.99%, while the daily limit of Guo Sheng Jinkong and Hualin Securities rose by more than 5%.
Since the beginning of 2023, as of the close of 65438+ 10/9, Guo Sheng Financial Holdings has increased by 45% this month, Cai Xiang shares have increased by 35% this month, and orient securities, Industrial Securities and Caida Securities have also increased by more than 20% this month.
Guolian Securities believes that the brokerage sector has outperformed the broader market recently. On the one hand, due to the stagflation of the previous plate, it has recently ushered in compensatory growth. On the other hand, with the continuous rise of the market, it is expected that the financial management-related businesses of securities firms (funds, asset management, etc.). ) will once again usher in better development, which will further improve the performance of the brokerage sector. It is expected that the performance of the brokerage sector in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to achieve better growth from the low base in the same period last year.
Liu Xinqi, chief of Guotai Junan Non-Bank, said recently that in 2023, it is expected that the fundamental repair of non-bank plate will exceed expectations. Among them, the fundamentals of the brokerage sector exceeded expectations. In addition to the expected recovery of the capital market, factors such as the reform of the registration system are also important driving forces for the improvement of the fundamentals of the brokerage sector. He also said that at present, the market's attention to the brokerage sector and the allocation ratio are low, and it is recommended to increase the brokerage sector.
TF Securities's research report pointed out that the high-growth business of brokers in the future will mainly come from the opportunities brought by deep participation in the equity-based institutionalized industrial chain, and brokers with competitive advantages in investment banking, wealth management and institutional business are expected to get a valuation premium.