With the continued popularity of A shares, the above jokes seem to be more and more confirmed. After years of bitter bear market, the current A shares have become a golden treasure, and you can pick them up by bending over. However, when the indicators are out of the chart, with the rapid development of the stock index, some people with a clear mind are becoming more and more vigilant, and even use exaggerated language to prompt risks. For example, the director of a brokerage research institute thinks that the point of +0 will be "the top of the earth". 38660.8886868866 1
What stage has the bull market reached? In this regard, both new investors who have entered the market and old investors who have tasted the sweetness are very concerned.
Private placement is divided on the short-term market.
It is undeniable that in the face of the "urgent March" of major indexes, while recognizing the long-term bull market, the differences on the short-term market are becoming more and more obvious. While the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high this year last week, it hit a high of "4444.4438+0" on Thursday, which really made many investors feel guilty.
The National Business Daily reporter noted that yesterday (April 25th), Tongxin Securities held a private placement forum in Chengdu, Sichuan. From the main point of view of private placement, they generally believe that the bull market will continue and the bull market will become the knowledge of participants. However, the reporter noted that when judging the short-term market, private investors had differences. A person who has transformed from a senior investor to a private placement judges that this year is still a good time to make money, and next year is a prudent time; Another person who turned to private placement through public offering bluntly said: Now the market is "ugly to eat". Since last year, the market has risen too fast, so we should pay attention to control.
On-site private placement has different opinions. Some individual investors attending the meeting showed great enthusiasm for the stock market, but they were worried that the market might adjust, which seemed very contradictory. Mr. Yang's words may represent the ideas of many new investors. He truly expressed his wish without exaggeration: as a new stockholder, he was lucky to meet a wave of market. Although I don't know where the market will go, at least I can make money now, hoping to leave before the market ends.
Will the sweetest market pass?
Some investors said: the bull market is not top; But some investors said: I am so worried that I can't sleep now. So, what position and stage has this bull market reached?
At the recent spring strategy meeting held by Industrial Securities, Zhang Yidong, a famous strategist, said that many people are worried about "peaking" now, mainly because stocks are "too expensive", but the stock market bubble will be normal.
Regarding how to understand the continuation of this bull market bubble, Zhang Yidong said that from the standpoint of management, we definitely expect this bull market to be a slow bull and a long bull, and the longer the better, until the "new engine" of the economy emerges successfully under the cultivation of the capital market. During the bull market, the management will adjust the market rhythm and curb excessive speculation. So the bubble will exist for a long time, but there will be twists and turns in the process. When the bubble is too big, the market will adjust to "squeeze it down" and then gradually "blow it up". The National Business Daily reporter noted that regarding the market judgment that all parties are extremely concerned about, Zhang Yidong believes that this round of comprehensive bull market in the A-share market may last for three to five years, but it will never be a "mad cow" all the way, but there will be three major stages, of which the rise from last year to a certain stage this year is the first stage; Then there is the second stage, which will be a quarterly or even annual adjustment and shock; The third stage is a rise that lasts for several years.
At present, the first stage of the big bull market has entered a climax, and the market at the climax is accelerating, and then adjustment will be ushered in. At present, it is still the "honeymoon period" of the market, and incremental funds are in a favorable state relative to the supply of chips. The risk point of "mad cow" market may be in the middle and late May.
Analysts believe that leaving before the market "bursts". This is everyone's hope, but only a few people can really do it. This bull market is different from the past. Under the prevailing pattern of leverage, the market will be more lethal after violent shocks, and risk control has become the top priority.
The growth of one-code account decreased from the previous month.
If you still live on wages after 20 15, then you have been classified as a life failure group. If you hear this sentence repeatedly, please note that there is another sentence behind it-success is always a minority.
I believe that investors who have experienced the last big bull market still remember that although there were many people who made money in the bull market, only a few people really made money after the subsequent bear market. Many new investors who ran into the market at that time, after tasting the sweetness of 4,000 points to 6,000 points, swallowed the bitter fruit of 6,000 points to 1664 points. In order to avoid similar tragedies, some signals that will have an important impact on the market deserve investors' special attention.
Zhang Yidong, an analyst at Industrial Securities, pointed out that the risk of market rest comes from three aspects: policy regulation, incremental capital admission or staged climax, and changes in the rhythm of stock financing. It is worth noting that two new risks have emerged. For example, the CSRC has repeatedly warned of investment risks, forbidding brokers to use umbrella trusts to raise leverage again, and relevant departments have encouraged the development of securities lending business.
Analysts believe that the revised draft of the Securities Law was submitted to the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) for deliberation last week, and it is expected that a legal system for stock issuance and registration will be established. The CSRC also announced that, on the basis of maintaining the balance of monthly examination and approval of initial public offerings, the supply of new shares will be moderately increased, from one issue per month to two batches. As a result, the number of companies approved to issue shares in April reached 55.
For the judgment of the admission scale of incremental funds, investors can judge from the number of accounts opened and the net inflow of securities deposits. According to public data, driven by the policy of "one person with multiple households", during the week from April 13 to April 17, the number of newly opened accounts in A-shares reached 3.25 million, and the settlement fund for securities transactions in the same period was 78140,000 yuan. If the number of accounts opened drops significantly, the capital inflow rate drops or even there is a net outflow, it is worthy of investors' vigilance. In fact, the National Business Daily reporter noticed that from April 13 to April 17, the growth of A-share accounts under One Code Pass has declined. Downloading A-share accounts means that the one-code-one downloaded account contains A-share accounts that are not cancelled or dormant.
Analysts believe that from the current situation, the intention of the regulatory authorities to "raise slow cattle" is very obvious. If the market continues to rise irrationally, it is not excluded that the regulatory authorities will take further regulatory measures. (National Business Daily)