Under the influence of the softening car market and the epidemic, 2020, the year of new car-making forces, may usher in a watershed in the reshuffle.
According to the January automobile production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on February 13, the production and sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market are expected to complete 35,000 and 39,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 56.3% and 54.5% respectively.
As a relatively special entity in the new energy vehicle market, new car-making forces are in an even more difficult situation.
Affected by the epidemic, delays in resuming work have increased operating costs, delayed the delivery of mass-produced vehicles, and disrupted financing plans. And as Tesla's production capacity begins to climb, competition in the new energy vehicle market will further intensify in 2020.
The new energy vehicle market continues its decline
Since the sales of new energy vehicles fell year-on-year for the first time in July 2019, this trend has not changed.
In the seven months since then, the monthly sales data of new energy vehicles have been 80,000, 85,000, 80,000, 75,000, 95,000, 163,000 and 39,000 respectively. 10,000 units, all of which fell year-on-year without exception. The highest decline was 54.5% in January this year, and the smallest decline was 4.7% in July last year.
This means that since the second half of last year, from the perspective of the market, the overall new energy vehicle market has been in a state of gradually expanding decline.
The actual sales level of new car manufacturers is similar to the overall trend of the above-mentioned car market.
NIO’s delivery volume in January 2020 was 1,598 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%.
Xpeng Motors’ delivery volume in January was 1,073 vehicles. Although it increased by 79.1% year-on-year, in fact, Xpeng just started delivery at the beginning of last year, and the base number was small, and compared with July 2019 With a delivery volume of more than 2,000 vehicles, Xpeng Motors’ sales are not optimistic either.
Weima's delivery volume was 808 vehicles, a decrease of 46.9% compared with the sales volume of 1,521 vehicles in December last year.
With the poor performance of Weilai, Xiaopeng and Weimar, the arrival of the epidemic has added more uncertainty, especially the difficulty in resuming work.
Both the resumption of work and the launch of new cars will be affected
Nio’s new ES8 is expected to be delivered in April this year. NIO said that the epidemic has led to delays in resumption of work and business, and vehicles in some areas cannot be delivered during the epidemic control period, so there will be a certain impact in the short term.
The launch date of Nezha U has been changed from the originally planned February to a later date. Xpeng P7 launch plan has been temporarily postponed from March to April.
In order to reduce the losses caused by the epidemic, new car-making forces have gradually resumed production and promoted the launch and delivery of mass-produced cars.
NIO told Caijing.com that on February 10, NIO’s advanced manufacturing base in Hefei has officially resumed work.
Byton Motors’ Nanjing factory has resumed work in batches starting from February 11, and the factory is resuming operation. Byton Motors told Caijing.com that Byton is making an assessment based on the epidemic prevention and resumption of work, as well as the supply and logistics situation of supply chain partners, and is doing its best to make appropriate business arrangements and advance preparations for mass production.
WM Wenzhou New Energy Vehicle Intelligent Industrial Park has fully resumed work on February 20. The Xinghui New Energy Intelligent Manufacturing Factory in Huanggang City, Hubei Province currently does not produce models for sale.
Delayed resumption of work has resulted in limited production capacity, which in turn has affected sales. For new car manufacturers that currently rely on financing, it will ultimately affect financing progress.
New car financing is unlikely to change in the short term. Investor Jian Chao believes that two aspects of financing for new car manufacturers this year are critical: whether the company's offline factories can resume work normally; and whether the epidemic has affected product production and delivery progress.
At present, both aspects will undoubtedly be affected.
According to the summary compiled by Caijing.com, many new car-making forces failed to reach their financing targets in 2019, including some leading companies.
This year, the financing situation may be more severe than in 2019.
Public information shows that currently only NIO has stated that it has received US$200 million in financing in 2020.
Byton Motors is still in the process of launching last year’s Series C round. In October 2019, Byton Motors received Series C financing led by FAW Group, with an investment of US$500 million.
Byton Motors revealed to Caijing.com that Series C financing has entered the final stage and is expected to be completed in the near future. Byton Motors said that Series C+ and Series D financing will also be launched subsequently.
Financial Network also interviewed WM Motor, Hezhong and other new car-making forces about their 2020 financing plans, but had not received a reply as of press time.
For new car-making forces like Bojun Automobile, which was revealed to have suspended its entire vehicle project, it may be more difficult to advance financing in 2020.
But at the same time, the competitive environment has also changed dramatically, and the biggest factor is Tesla.
Tesla’s Catfish Effect
China has now become Tesla’s second largest consumer market in the world. In its financial report for the third quarter of 2019, Tesla stated that China is expected to become the largest market for Model 3.
Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019, of which China accounted for 13%. According to documents submitted by Tesla to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tesla’s revenue in China was US$2.979 billion (approximately RMB 20.8 billion), an increase of 69.55% compared to 2018.
In addition, the number of Tesla registered users in China continued to rise in 2019. In 2019 alone, it increased from 16,000 in 2018 to 42,000, a year-on-year increase of 161%.
At the same time, Tesla’s localization pace continues to accelerate.
Tesla announced on January 7 that the second phase of the Shanghai Lingang Gigafactory project was officially launched and plans to produce the Chinese version of model?Y. At present, the project is in the major preparatory project stage, and construction can start only after the procedures are completed.
The first phase of Tesla’s Shanghai factory was completed and put into production in just 10 months. In October 2019, the first domestic version of Model 3 rolled off the assembly line. On January 7 this year, Tesla fully launched the delivery of the domestic version of Model 3. According to forecasts from CITIC Securities, after the completion of the Shanghai Gigafactory, steady-state sales of Model 3 in the Chinese market are expected to reach more than 300,000 units.
After many price challenges, the domestic version of Model 3 is now priced at less than 300,000 yuan, or 299,050 yuan, after subsidies for the standard-range upgraded version of Model 3.
Tesla’s entry into the market of less than 300,000 units may reshape the electric vehicle market structure. Zhou Lijun, an expert at Bitauto Research Institute, once told Caijing.com, “Once car companies with strong brand appeal, such as Tesla, begin to increase sales on a large scale in 2020 and set relatively aggressive prices, such as Model 3 Entering the price range of less than 300,000 yuan is very likely to subvert the competitive landscape of the private consumer market for electric vehicles in just a few months.”
The elimination of new cars may accelerate
The car market. The multiple impacts of sluggishness, the epidemic, and intensified competition may prompt new car-making forces to accelerate the reshuffle. Leading companies will take more advantages, and second- and third-tier companies will face more practical difficulties.
In this regard, senior automobile analyst Ren Wanfu said that theoretically, new car-making forces will accelerate the reshuffle. He pointed out that according to the "Ranking of New Car-Making Forces", a few car companies such as Weilai, WM Motor, and Xiaopeng have now achieved mass production and delivery. "For the outside world, the company's performance can be judged by its sales volume and some other information. Production and operation conditions”.
Zhou Lijun said that the future of new car-making forces represented by Weilai depends on whether they can effectively integrate user operation thinking and traditional manufacturing thinking. "In the next few years, it will depend on whether user-oriented car companies represented by Weilai or traditional manufacturing car companies can be more inclusive and learn from each other's excellent models more efficiently."
Compared Under this situation, although NIO and other car companies are losing money, they can still obtain some cash flow from selling vehicles and maintain operations. However, for those new car companies that have not yet achieved mass production of new cars, they will face greater difficulties in 2020. .
Conclusion: As a new force in the Chinese automobile market, new car manufacturers have gained a group of loyal users and fans through their development and growth in recent years. At the same time, the user economic operation model is constantly improving during exploration, which has also changed the traditional automobile market structure to a certain extent. However, in the current market environment, traditional car companies are obviously more resistant to risks due to their accumulation, while new car companies are constrained by various factors such as financing and sales. 2020 may become a real watershed.
(Pictures are all from the official website)
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.