The crisis in the United States has slowed down American economic growth and tightened global credit, which will tighten the overall external environment of China. In addition, the recent strong appreciation of the US dollar has accelerated the appreciation of the RMB against a basket of currencies, which will definitely exert great pressure on China's exports and further affect China's economic growth.
Lu Ting: The impact of this crisis on China's real economy is mainly in export. In addition to the economic slowdown and declining demand in the United States, the economic growth rates in Europe and Japan also showed a rapid downward trend in the second quarter of this year, which is bound to reduce the import demand for China.
According to our calculation, excluding the factors of price and exchange rate, the export growth of China from June to August this year was 12. 1%, which was lower than that of last year. In addition to the US subprime mortgage crisis, the global economic slowdown and other factors, there is also a key factor for the decline in export growth, that is, China's export growth is experiencing a natural slowdown in a big cycle. China joined the WTO at the end of 20001. After that, the new market developed rapidly, and the export of China increased rapidly in 200 1-2004. However, with the gradual development of foreign markets, the export growth rate will inevitably slow down. In fact, China's export growth rate began to decline after 2005. In 2006, the actual export increased by 24%, and in 2007, the export growth further decreased to 19.2%. Interestingly, the decline in export growth does not mean that GDP growth will also decline. Although export growth showed a downward trend from 2005 to 2007, GDP growth did accelerate. . {The copyright of this answer belongs to ◇ч◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇ ◇.
At the beginning of this year, we predicted that if the economic growth of the United States decreased by 1 percentage point, the export growth rate of China would decrease by 3.4 percentage points, and the GDP growth rate of China would decrease by 0.35 percentage point. In the first half of this year, due to the slowdown in export growth, GDP increased by about 0.8 percentage points. We estimate that the export growth rate will further decline in the last few months of this year, because the impact of export slowdown on GDP growth this year is about 1 percentage point. In 2009, exports will further slow down, which will reduce GDP growth by about 0.7 percentage points.
Li Daokui: In the short term, the American crisis will definitely have a negative impact on its real economy, but this negative impact is far less serious than that during the Great Depression of last century. The problems of financial institutions caused by the crisis are mainly reflected in the secondary market, which will lead to the decline in the value of products traded in the financial market or the bursting of the bubble. Of course, due to the shrinking loan transaction and the rising interest rate in the secondary market, the loan interest rate of enterprises and families will eventually rise, and the credit will shrink, which will make the already difficult American economy worse.
The impact on China's real economy is mainly reflected in the blow to China's exports. The American crisis will certainly hit American enterprises to a certain extent, and at the same time, American consumption will further shrink, leading to a decline in demand for China products. In addition, the demand for interregional trade from Europe and Asia will also decrease, which will also be detrimental to China's exports.
Huang: The impact of the American crisis on China's real economy is mainly reflected in its impact on China's exports. The financial crisis means that the world economy is beginning to weaken and decline, so China's exports are bound to be affected to some extent. In fact, the actual growth rate of China's exports has dropped from more than 25% last year to below 10%, and its exports to the United States have experienced zero growth or even negative growth for several months. Because exports account for more than one third of China's GDP, that is to say, a considerable part of domestic demand is closely related to exports. The slowdown in exports will inevitably lead to weak consumption and investment. This is the most direct impact on China's real economy. However, the direct losses caused by overseas investment of some financial institutions in China may not be reflected in the operation of China's real economy soon.
We have done model analysis, and if the economic growth of the United States drops by 1 percentage point, the economic growth of China may be lowered by 0.5 percentage point. Of course, the current signs of weak economic activities in China are not only due to the economic downturn in the United States, but also due to the tightening of monetary policy and the rising costs of labor, capital and energy. Taken together, the above aspects have caused the risk of current economic growth to be far greater than the risk of inflation.