165438+1On October 22nd, Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia with 1-2 in Group C of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The first surprise of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar in 2022-2022 fell on the Argentine and highly anticipated player Messi without warning.
In the securities market, a recent report by Mou Yiling's strategic team of Minsheng Securities entitled "World Cup Theme Investment: Return of Resource Countries" (hereinafter referred to as the research report) also attracted attention, because the research report predicted at the beginning that "Argentina will become the team with the highest probability of winning the championship", which was based on the neural network model, saying that "Argentina is expected to win the World Cup again after 1986, and Brazil will break into the semi-finals again.
The result of this game is quite different from the forecast, which has attracted many people's attention. What makes capital market investors more concerned is, how much does such a research report have to do with the capital market? How was it made? What are the procedures from writing to publishing?
CBN learned from brokers that the general process of issuing securities research reports is that the chief analyst can decide the topic by himself, and some brokers require the chief analyst to report the direction of the topic to relevant leaders before writing the topic. After the manuscript is completed, it will be submitted for quality control and compliance review, and a report will be released after the review is passed.
The above-mentioned people in the brokerage industry believe that the report content of the strategic industry is mainly in the direction of asset allocation. Even if we don't focus on the specific analysis of sub-sectors, it should be pragmatic and reasonable to publish research reports as brokers.
Quantitative test results, gimmicks or science?
At the beginning of the research report of Minsheng Securities, the principle of predicting Argentina's championship was given: "Argentina will become the team with the greatest probability of winning the championship." Compared with many European giants, Brazil and Argentina are more worthy of optimism and have the' scarcest resources' in football.
At the same time, the results of the quantitative model are used to confirm the judgment: "Neural network model is adopted, with all the previous battle records between teams as parameters (attenuation processing, that is, more weight is given to the latest battle records), and special holding dates are added as influencing factors. After 65,438+00,000 neural network model trainings and 65,438+000,000 simulation results, the final model results show that Argentina is expected to win the World Cup again after 65,438+0986. "
The description of quantitative test results has caused discussion in the industry. "It's a little mysterious." A private trader told CBN that neural network model, as a quantitative tool in investment, is an artificial intelligence algorithm. However, there are many variables in football matches, and it is difficult to quantify the results. "Although it is also possible to predict values through a large number of historical data, it is meaningless."
In addition, the research report also emphasizes that considering the super popularity of Brazil and Argentina among domestic fans, it is expected that the two teams will play all seven World Cup matches, which will bring greater discussion, thus amplifying the "World Cup effect" of the capital market to some extent. According to the research report, "As far as A-shares are concerned, the market performance during the World Cup is generally good, but in every World Cup, we can find that the best performance is in 2002 (during the competition, all A's increased by 13.3 1%). It is worth mentioning that it was also the first and only time that China participated in the World Cup as a participating country. "
What is the connection between a single World Cup and the capital market? Why can it boost A shares? What is the logic? The research report didn't discuss it.
A senior brokerage official told CBN: "In essence, the World Cup did not boost the stock market." In his view, the performance of the capital market driven by hot topics including the World Cup is only the short-term gains made by hot factors. For individual stocks, the stock price and valuation should be judged according to the company's revenue.
Professional content is questioned, is it doing nothing?
"The above research report does not clearly express the investment allocation strategy, nor does it see how much the metaphor of players and industries described in the article is related to the A-share market." A person in the securities industry told the First Financial Reporter.
It is also mentioned in the report that "the stability of supply-side resources in the industrial chain is affected by external shocks and changes in the production organization mode of traditional manufacturing industries". The above-mentioned people believe that if it is subdivided into the influence of the World Cup effect on the upstream resource industry, how to carry out the overseas business of individual stocks and listed companies, whether it is a price war acquisition or a debt acquisition, and how long the return period is, these must be questioned. And how many percent of these businesses can benefit from the World Cup in the short term, and how much impact will it have on the valuation?
According to public information, Mou Yiling is currently the chief strategist and assistant to the president. The research direction is strategic research, and I graduated from Hanqing Research Institute of China Renmin University with a master's degree. He has served as senior strategist of Guotai Junan, chief strategist of open source securities strategy, and has 7 years of experience in strategy research.
It is worth mentioning that the publishing norms and compliance of brokerage research reports have long been highly concerned by the supervision.
Previously, on March 1 1, Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau issued the Feng Shui Research Report to Essence Securities, took regulatory measures against its chief investor Chen Nanpeng, and issued a warning letter to its brokerage branch. According to the decision of Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau, Invincible Benevolence-2022 China Stock Market Forecast, which was produced by Chen Nanpeng and published on the company's WeChat group, was forwarded and spread to the outside world. The comments on the industry and market are not cautious enough, and the stock is classified according to the five elements, and the investment advice is not reasonable.
202 1, 10, a research report on the application of heavenly stems and earthly branches in timing by Guo Sheng Securities predicted the market trend with geomantic omen, and also "ate" the warning letter from Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau. The research report said: "According to the ten gods relationship between the stock market and heavenly stems and earthly branches in 2008, 202 1 was a year of joy and ugliness, and the stock market fluctuated gently;" 2022 is the year after, and the trend of the stock market is slowly rising and slowly falling. "The report also said that opinions are based on historical statistics and quantitative models, and there is a risk that historical laws and quantitative models will fail. Subsequently, on February 30th, 200211,Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning letter to Guo Sheng Securities on the research report of Feng Shui, and at the same time held a supervision talk with Liu Fubing, the author of the research report.
In addition, 202 1 10 Shenzhen Securities Bureau issued a warning letter to Wang Weiqi, Zhou Junhong and Tang Xuxia, because the research report "Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. Series II-Energy Storage: Final Discussion on the Second Growth Curve" signed by the three people predicted that the income center of energy storage business would be in Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in 2060.
202 1 10, Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau issued warning letters to Guoyuan Securities and Li Dian respectively. During the special inspection of the relevant industry research reports issued by Guoyuan Securities, it was found that there were some problems in the research reports, such as unclear data source labeling, careless data selection, objective analysis of the research reports, and inadequate quality control and compliance review. As a securities analyst who signed the research report, Li Dian is responsible for the above violations.
As early as March 2020, the CSRC issued the revised Interim Provisions on the Issuance of Securities Research Reports, in which Article 12 stipulates that securities companies and securities investment consulting institutions should establish and improve the mechanism for preventing conflicts of interest related to the issuance of securities research reports, clarify management processes, disclosure matters and operational requirements, and effectively prevent conflicts of interest between the issuance of securities research reports and other securities businesses.
In May 2020, the China Securities Association issued the Code of Practice for Publishing Securities Research Reports (Revised Draft), which involves strengthening the quality control of research reports and improving the quality of research reports; Strengthen the evaluation of analysts, strengthen the assessment of analysts, and participate in the selection management. In August, 2022, China Securities Association (hereinafter referred to as China Securities Association) reiterated the relevant regulations and supplemented the shareholding scope. A notice was issued to put forward three requirements for securities companies to strengthen self-discipline management, including disclosing the company's shareholding in research reports, further standardizing the management of research minutes, and strengthening the management of analysts participating in external selection.
The contents of the circular also show that securities companies have issued securities research reports with clear valuations and investment ratings for specific stocks. If the company holds more than 65,438+0% of the issued shares of the relevant listed company, it shall disclose the details of the company's holding of the shares (including the type of shareholding business, shareholding amount, lock-up period, etc.). ) and the potential conflict of interest in releasing the research report to customers in the securities research report, the research report shall not be conducted with securities on the release date and the second trading day of the securities research report.