From the magical rise in March to the heavy-handed regulation in July, the farce of Shenzhen property market has ended in stages this year.
The effect of the New Deal was immediate. Overnight, many people lost the qualification to buy a house, and many people increased the down payment ratio and taxes. The plan to buy a house was suddenly disrupted, the demand for buying a house plummeted, and the orders signed by the intermediary and the sales of new houses also decreased. The market for new and second-hand houses has lost its frenzied atmosphere a few days ago.
After three years of settlement+social security, about 30% of the buyers lost their qualifications, and the market visits and transactions dropped significantly. More importantly, the expectation of rising house prices has been reversed and the logic of the operation of the property market has been changed. Many real estate speculators were blocked by the new deal, and those with room tickets had the confidence. The property market entered the buyer's market, from fanaticism to calmness.
However, this new policy cannot make Shenzhen once and for all. Strict regulation can curb the expectation of rising house prices in the short term, but only by starting from the root causes and solving the problem of insufficient housing supply in Shenzhen can we achieve "stable property market".
The New Deal should "cool down"
"I am not qualified to buy a house when I wake up." The biggest blow of the New Deal to the market is that there are suddenly fewer buyers.
In the new housing market, Huaqiang City, China Resources City Phase IV, Shajing Coastal City, China Shipping Cosmos Times and other online celebrity plates have all made an emergency inventory of customers who have been or swept the streets before to see how many places are left to buy a house.
Jason Wu is a real estate speculators. In order to "innovate", she joined several buyers, and at the same time paid attention to several online red discs with two friends. Initially, the goal of the plan was to go to the ocean. After the New Deal came out, the two friends had no place and the down payment was not enough.
According to the New Deal, the lottery of hot real estate should "give priority to people who have no room and have long years of tax payment or social security", which also means that many customers just need to hold high-quality room tickets, and the chances of getting on the bus are greatly improved.
People who just need to buy a house can finally hold their heads high. On the day of the introduction of the New Deal, a buyer of the fourth discussion group of China Resources City said: "I was persuaded by Runsi yesterday and I suddenly felt that there was a great opportunity today." There is joy in the tone that can't be concealed.
Many qualified buyers said that they were also prepared to try their luck at the new site. After all, there are not many people with room tickets in their hands, and the online celebrity website is not impossible to buy.
According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in July1March-July 19, 873 sets of new houses were sold in Shenzhen, down 8.0% from the previous month. Because of the release of previous cumulative transactions, it seems that the decline is not too much; Zheng Shulun, managing director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan, said that the new housing market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the transaction volume will drop significantly in a short time.
People are no longer keen on "innovation", second-hand houses are "cold" and intermediaries are closed. Xiao Zhao, a real estate agent, said, "You can sign two or three orders at the weekend, but now you just ask for more." He believes that the volume of second-hand housing transactions will drop significantly in the next few months, and business will become more and more difficult.
The second-hand housing owners who had been bullish before lowered their posture. Xiao Zhang, a real estate agent in the Central Plains, told reporters that before the New Deal landed, after customers took a fancy to the house, many owners would temporarily raise the price, and it was common to increase the price by 2.5 million, and some community owners collectively raised the price. But now, many second-hand housing owners have taken the initiative to reduce the listing price.
For example, in Nord Holiday Garden in Nanshan District, some owners reduced the listing price from 9.6 million to 9 million on the day of the New Deal; The owner of the Apple Orchard in Baoan District originally quoted 7.6 million yuan, and the New Deal dropped to 7.39 million yuan the next day.
Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that there will definitely be high-priced diving. For example, investors who bought a house with leverage in the early stage have considerable book floating profits, are pessimistic about the market outlook and want to ship at a high price. Since last year, the average house price in Shenzhen has increased by 6.5438+0 million yuan, and the increase alone is the house price level in Changsha. On the surface, the price cuts of hundreds of thousands and millions are quite large, but they are actually "squeezing water".
In this atmosphere, the second-hand housing market is bleak, and the number of online signings is "cliff-like". According to the data of Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, one week after the release of the New Deal (July1March-July 19), the number of online signings of second-hand houses in Shenzhen was 5 143, down 48.7% from the previous month.
Many insiders in Shenzhen believe that the relationship between supply and demand in the market has changed significantly in the short term, the expectation of rising house prices has been reversed, and the property market has begun to enter the buyer's market.
Not once and for all.
The heavy landing of boots has brought a lot of turmoil to the market. Everyone is concerned, where is the Shenzhen property market going? Will house prices continue to be firm?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that this policy has effectively hit the investment demand, and it is expected that some investors will start to leave the market. If policies are strictly implemented in terms of fees, housing purchase qualifications and credit loans, Shenzhen is expected to begin to enter the adjustment cycle.
In the past, the market of Shenzhen property market leading Beijing and Shanghai will come to an end. It is predicted that in the next six months, the proportion of investment in Shenzhen will plummet, and house prices will start to drop sharply, with a drop of more than 5%.
Li predicted that in the second half of this year, Shenzhen's property market transactions will obviously cool down, and house prices will also fall, especially the houses that were sold in the first half of this year. The shortest adjustment period of this policy is 1 month and the longest is 8 months; The total transaction volume of Shenzhen property market will drop by 70% at most and only 20% at least.
However, he pointed out that this round of regulation of Shenzhen property market has a greater impact on the property market in the short term, and it still depends on the basic market in the long run.
Steady word is always the main tone of the property market. For Shenzhen, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly stressed that Shenzhen should not only regulate but also stabilize the property market, which will test the wisdom of Shenzhen. Regulation is a short-term move. If the property market declines significantly in the future, it is not excluded that the policy will do the opposite.
But no matter how strict and frequent the regulation is, it is the relationship between supply and demand that ultimately determines the direction of the property market. In order to achieve a "stable property market", the Shenzhen government also started from the root causes this year to solve the problem of insufficient housing supply.
In the first half of 2020, Shenzhen * * * sold residential land 13 cases, with a transfer area of 494,500 square meters, up about 25.7% year-on-year. This year, Shenzhen plans to supply 293.2 hectares of residential land, nearly double the planned 150 hectares last year.
In order to solve the problem of land scarcity, Shenzhen's urban renewal is also highly anticipated. As of July 19, 2020, 89 1 projects have been included in the urban renewal plan, and 509 projects have been approved by the special regulations on urban renewal.
On July 20th, Shenzhen promulgated the Regulations on Urban Renewal of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (Draft for Comment), which stipulated that when the legal property right ratio of the signed demolition and resettlement agreement is not less than 95% and the relevant regulations on house expropriation are met, the municipal and district governments may impose individual expropriation on unsigned houses.
This means that "nail households" can be levied by the government alone, and the efficiency of old reform is expected to be greatly improved.
Ding Zuyu, president of E-House China, believes that the implementation effect of the follow-up policy remains to be further observed, but it will definitely be immediate in the short term and will have a greater impact on the market. It is not a bad thing for the future development of Shenzhen to pour some cold water on the "inflated" housing prices in Shenzhen to calm the market down, but it may be more conducive to the future development.
In addition, the government should further think about how to increase supply, guide reasonable market expectations and make the overall market balanced and stable. The introduction of this policy does not mean once and for all. In the future, the government still has many things to cooperate with.
Deng, an insider in Shenzhen, believes that in the long run, Shenzhen still needs to solve the problem of insufficient supply, such as accelerating the construction of metropolitan areas, diverting demand and planning adjustment, and increasing the supply of residential land.