It is said that two messengers on Chivalrous Island (I don't know if Chivalrous can travel in Baidu) go to the Central Plains once every ten years to give bronze medals to the leaders of major gangs and invite them to drink a bowl of Laba porridge on the island. The gangs that didn't want to go were killed by two ambassadors. In the past 30 years, three groups of Wulin experts have been to Chivalrous Island, and none of them have returned. The trip to Chivalrous Island has always been regarded as the road to death. Another decade. The number of invitations issued by Chivalrous Island this time is as high as 1024. But this time the rules have changed. 1024 After people went to the island, the owner allowed one person to leave the island and return to the Central Plains. Everyone asked for a chance to go back, and no one wanted to die in a foreign land ... In order to be fair, the island owner decided to draw lots, but it was not a simple draw of 1024, which was too low for Chivalrous Island. Instead, it is necessary to draw ten times and vote for half "dead" and half "alive" according to the number of people. Only those who draw lots on the spot have the opportunity to continue to participate in the lottery until there is one person left.
Alas, the form is complicated, but the essence is still the same. No matter how to draw lots, as long as only one person is allowed to leave in the end, the probability of each person leaving the island in 1024 is one in 1024. However, the complexity of the form always creates a lot of fog, covers up a lot of essence, and makes people feel really different. The draw has begun. The first time 5 12 people lived, the second time 256, the third time 128 ... the tenth time, the last time 1 person! This guy spread out the lottery ticket and smiled: Ten live tickets! Everyone focused on him, thinking that this buddy must be a relative of God, otherwise how could he be so lucky? How can he draw ten stamps? Even this guy thinks he's great. He must be unique. He is either tough or like a king, and God can't destroy him ... This is the result of complicated forms.
So he left the island and returned to the Central Plains. When people in Wulin heard about it, they all expressed their admiration. They are definitely successful people and heroes. Weibo has over 10 million fans, over 100 million hits on his blog, TV interviews and university lectures, and has published several books one after another, such as "Crossing the Guandong Chivalrous Island", "Chivalrous Island" and "Thinking about Chivalrous Island", to introduce people's experience in coping with the crisis when they leave the island in the next decade. Time flies, another decade has passed. This guy's reputation is already in full swing, and he earns a lot of money. Even the Chivalrous Island Master has heard about it, so this time, the Island Master only invited him to the island. ...
A dead sign and a live sign were drawn ten times, and ten live signs were drawn to leave the island ... The same probability is one in 1024. However, whether you can leave the island this time can be described as ill-fated. This probability is very high. Why can you get away safely with the same probability last time, but it is difficult this time? Because last time 1023 people looked for him, one of them was a great success! The last escape was the result of random selection, that is, someone must have left for the last time, no matter who it was, it was a random result, no matter who it was, it was just a possibility; Whether you can leave this time is random, so the same probability, completely different results ... This is the essence of success and failure. Bill Gates can't recreate a Microsoft, and Buffett can't start all over again.
If you think there is still a probability of 1 in 1024, how about drawing 20 live visas? The probability of 1 048,576 is absolutely inescapable. However, if 1 0,048,576 people draw lots according to Scheme I, one person will still leave the island. What concept? That's even more heroic, but it's always the result of random selection in essence ... What if a person doesn't leave the island in this way, but gets a bonus of 1 048,576 yuan? What should I do if I have to pay two yuan to win the grand prize in the lucky draw? This is a lottery or a casino. It is obviously not worth gambling to spend 2 yuan to get an opportunity with an expected return of 1 yuan, while people who work in the village can earn 1 0,048,576 yuan! But how many people can see it in reality? Not worth fighting for, you can earn 1, 048,576 yuan! But how many people can see it in reality?