How to calculate the probability of the Heat winning the first prize?

The order of the draft is determined by drawing lots, which creates uncertainty.

Will be ranked according to the record, the worse the record, the table tennis team draws more than other teams, and the other teams will decrease in turn according to the record. In this case, the Heat has the worst record this year, winning the most lottery table tennis and winning the first prize.

The general probability is 10- 15%. The possibility of other teams decreases in turn.