First of all, Iran and Saudi Arabia, sworn enemies, separated as they wished. Surprisingly, it would be more reasonable for Iraq to replace China in Group B, which was originally based on this principle. However, due to the mediation of some political factors in the Asian football circle, China was "lucky" not to enter Group A surrounded by strong enemies. As for the specific reasons, this article will not follow the table for the time being.
Secondly, due to the increasingly obvious trend of AFC's "no one in the DPRK" in recent years, South Korea has been divided into Group A surrounded by wolves in West Asia, and the actual situation is not optimistic. After all, South Korea can walk sideways in East Asia, but in West Asia, West Asians who are good at hiding their positions will not let South Koreans take away three points so easily, which is extremely variable. In view of this lottery, Korean domestic media are divided into two camps. One camp is an optimist who thinks that none of the opponents in Group A can play except Iran, the old rival. Another pessimist thinks that South Korea is selected in Group A and is doomed to be bitten by wolves in West Asia. After all, South Korea didn't take advantage of the Western Expedition.
Back to the situation of China team, the domestic media generally divided the lottery results into two kinds of judgments: "winning the lottery" and "winning the lottery". Then let's analyze a question first, whether the judgment of the media is fair. Why didn't the referees have the media comments that often appeared in the previous 12 top-level events, such as "signing up" and "signing down"? Because it is an indisputable fact that China's own situation is getting worse, even with the help of naturalized players, the problems of shallow foundation, weak youth training and self-reliance are still very serious. In this top 40 competition, China ranked first with an average of 30.7 years old, which is the best proof; At the same time, the top three opponents designated by the China team are: the light of Asia-the Japanese team; Australia, the overlord of Oceania; World Cup regulars-Saudi Arabia. For such three opponents, we really don't have too optimistic capital. So there is no such thing as "signing the contract".
So what is the reason why the "signing" is not established? After the lottery results came out, the media unexpectedly found that China had an advantage over most opponents in the preliminary round, so media friends agreed that the lottery was not bad. At the same time, after all, there are two "boys" in this group-Oman and Vietnam. In fact, the strength of Oman and Vietnam is not bad. Both teams tied with the seed team in the group stage of the top 40, just because they were not as good as the major powers after entering the 12. However, treating it as a "boy" is obviously a bit underestimated.
Next, let's visit our main competitors. On September 7th, the China team will face the Japanese team, the strongest opponent in this group, at home. As an invincible warship in Asia for many years, Japan's performance can stand the test in any competition. Even in the World Cup, European and American powers never dared to look down on the skilled Japanese team. In recent years, due to the substantial improvement of national physical fitness, the standard of player selection is also rising. Today's Japanese players are no longer technically excellent and thin, but technically advanced, physically advanced and consciously advanced. Some time ago, a data showed that the number of Japanese players in Europe has reached 535, but there is obviously a huge gap in China. Therefore, in this 12 tournament, the China team should not only learn from its powerful opponents, but also be prepared to fight to the death. After all, 20 10 North Korea, as a fishing club in the 10 tournament, is in the same group as Japan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and can advance to the World Cup with its head held high. Its brave and tenacious style and indomitable willpower are the core magic weapons. In this 12 tournament, if the China team can get 1 point at home and away, it is basically 80 points; If you can get 3 points, Tie Jiajun can get 100 points. At the same time, the situation of this group may be worrying. If you can get 1-3 points from the strongest opponent, it will be very helpful for the group to qualify and will also greatly inspire confidence.
On September 1, China will face the Australian team, the Light of Oceania. The last official match between China and Australia dates back to the 20 15 Asian Cup in Australia, and China lost to Australia 0-2 in the final of14. At that time, the author watched the whole game, and the China team played well in the group stage, which was regarded as a dark horse in that game. However, after meeting Australia in the knockout stage, the whole game was absolutely passive and there was no strength to fight back. To tell you the truth, I was desperate in that game. What makes people desperate is not the score, but what is reflected on the spot. China team is at a disadvantage in physical confrontation, technology, tactical thinking and consciousness. Six years later, China added five naturalized players, almost all of whom were axis players. Huang Jianxiang, a famous football commentator, recently pointed out that this Australian team has been going downhill in recent years, and there are no superstars, but its strength is just beyond Australia's level. Much as I admire Mr. Huang Jianxiang, I really don't agree with this argument. Thin camels are bigger than horses, and Australia ranks 30-40 in the world all the year round. It belongs to the second-rate team in the world and is definitely the Asian hegemon. And even if there are no superstars in the team at present, the players are of average ability and all play in Europe, their strength is still very strong. Therefore, if the China team can score 3 points in the 12 match, it will definitely be satisfied, and 1 point is the passing score. If it can exceed 3 points, it will be a great surprise.
The first match in June 5438+10, the last day of China's National Day, the China team will play against the Vietnamese team at home. Although Vietnam has not played against China in official competitions for many years, there are many sources of public opinion between China and Vietnam. First of all, eight years ago, after China's men's soccer team defeated Thailand with15 at home, Fan Zhiyi, a famous football player in China, said in an interview: If we continue to lose like this, we will lose to Vietnam, Vietnam and Myanmar, and then no team can lose. In addition, some time ago, the Vietnamese media made it clear that they should be grouped with China before the draw for the top 12, because they can get six points from China. After the lottery results came out, the Vietnamese media voiced again, claiming to win the two rounds with China by 10: 0. It is true that we know that the Vietnamese media are a little overexcited just because they entered the 12 final for the first time in history, but the arrogance of this neighbor is an indisputable fact. This time, the Vietnamese team finally came to Big Brother. Can China smooth his arrogance by crushing it, or let the words directed by Fan Zhiyi many years ago become a prophecy? According to the author's observation, Vietnamese football has benefited from the achievements of youth training in recent years and made great achievements in the field of youth teams. In this Top 40 competition, the average age of the Vietnamese team is only 25.2 years old, and we can already see the outstanding achievements of youth training in recent years. In addition, after hiring South Korea's Park Huanxu as the head coach, it brought tactical concept reform and talent system construction to the Vietnamese team. Today's Vietnamese team is really not under Amon, but the shortcomings of the Vietnamese team are still obvious. The average height of Vietnamese athletes is only 175.6cm, while the average height of China athletes participating in this competition is 180.6cm. At the same time, the height disadvantage is obvious, and the confrontation ability is also obviously at a disadvantage. And because this competition is the first time in its history to participate in the top competition of 12, there is the possibility of insufficient competition experience. As a typical youth army, it does have abundant physical strength and fierce fighting spirit. However, once the first two games are unfavorable or even hit, it is still a big question mark whether this youth army can bear it. In the two rounds of the match with Vietnam, although the domestic media clamored for all six points, we still had to analyze the situation rationally. 12 There is no weak team in the game. If you treat others like fish bellies, maybe others will treat you like fish bellies. Therefore, four points against Vietnam in two rounds is the passing line, and six points is the perfect score.
5438+1In the second game of June, China will go to the away game to challenge the West Asian superpower Saudi Arabia. In recent years, the performance of the Saudi team has been fairly stable, and it has been at the end of the first-class teams in Asia and the leader of the second-rate teams. The last match between Saudi Arabia and China was in the Asian Cup group match of 20 15. At that time, China beat Saudi Arabia with Wang's free kick and Yu Hai's free kick, but I don't think China is better than Saudi Arabia. Judging from the record over the years, China can basically play 50-50 at home against Saudi Arabia, and there is almost no chance away. Judging from the current strength of the China team, if you can be naturalized in Kardec before the start of the 12 tournament, you still have a chance to win a good result with the Saudi team. Therefore, in the two matches with Saudi Arabia, if China's ultimate strategic goal is to enter the World Cup, he must get at least 3 points. If you can get 4 points, it will change. Saudi Arabia is at an absolute disadvantage in the qualifying competition with China.
1 1 in the first game, China will face Oman, the last opponent in the first round, at home. After the draw, many fans and friends were very optimistic because they won the Oman team in the fifth game. Admittedly, Oman seems to be a better opponent than Syria. But we should also see that the head coach of Oman is Ivanovich who once coached Shandong Luneng. His knowledge of China football is his advantage. At the same time, Ivan's coaching style is conservative, and he is likely to make a steady counterattack when he challenges China away. At present, China's defense line is not afraid of the impact of positional warfare, but it seems a little flustered in the face of the opponent's quick counterattack. So Oman is not necessarily a good team.
Of course, in the end, we must make it clear that if the goal of 12 China Men's Football Championship is not just to go through the motions, but to enter Qatar, then many of our analyses are redundant. China men's soccer team should put aside a lot of comments from the outside world, cross the rubicon with a weak attitude, play every game well and get every score that can be taken. Only in this way can we have a chance to enter the World Cup again after 20 years.
Come on, China! Come on, my home team forever!