What is the probability of winning the concert lottery of Japanese group Lan? If you don't win, you can only buy scalpers ... It is said that the J family.

First of all, only fan members can draw prizes. Not for sale. Lan members have already exceeded 1.5 million, while the concert has only more than 600,000 audience seats. There's almost a 30% chance. And there are parent-child seats, disabled seats and so on. In fact, the probability is definitely less than 20%. Because foreigners can hardly join the membership, of course they can't get tickets. Only scalpers. But J's ticket is from real-name registration system, so it is risky. Coupled with the recent rampant scalpers, the J family was furious, and now it is very strict. Many invalid tickets have been announced before. If the scalper is still sold to you, you can only be cheated. A blind ticket is when you buy it, let the buyer buy it when you have a ticket, and you don't know the seat. The price tag means that you check the seats and let the buyer help you buy the position you want, but the relative price will be high.