1
I. Project background
1. Project name: residential quarter (tentative name)
2. Basis for the preparation of the feasibility study report:
(1) Code for Planning and Design of Urban Residential Areas
(2) Regulations on the Administration of Urban Demolition
(3) Provisions on the establishment of public service facilities in urban residential areas
(4) Code for Residential Design
(5) Design standard of residential buildings
(6) Standard for Traffic Design and Parking Lot Setting of Building Engineering
(7) Code for Planning and Design of Urban Road Greening
(8) Code for Fire Protection Design of High-rise Civil Buildings
3. Project overview
1) Location of the plot: the base starts from the east, ends at the road in the south, ends at the road in the west and ends at the road in the north. The land area in the enclosed area is about square meters, which belongs to Class A lot.
2) Construction scale and objectives:
Land area: mu (square meter)
Floor area ratio:
Development cycle:
Land price: RMB/mu (starting price for listing and transferring the right to use state-owned land in a city) Building area (estimated): total building area: ㎡.
3) Surrounding environment and facilities
(1) It takes about 10 minutes to walk to downtown A.
(2) The west side is the scenic spot in the city center.
(3) Green belts in eastern cities and southern squares.
(4) Primary schools near a city in the southwest.
(5) People's Bank of a city in the north.
4. SWOT analysis of the project
Advantages and opportunities
(1) The project is located in the most potential area of a city, and the surrounding environment is the best residential area in the near future.
(2) A The pace of economic development and municipal construction in recent years has made the real estate in this region have a large appreciation space.
(3) The successful development of the east side provides market recognition for the housing price positioning in this region.
(4) The residential facilities are becoming more and more mature, and the commercial atmosphere is gradually forming, which has laid a certain foundation for the price of shops in this project.
(5) A large proportion of local residents choose to move back, which can alleviate the pressure of capital flow of the project.
(6) The project is sold in gross land, and the starting price is RMB/mu, which makes the upfront funds for land acquisition less.
(7) The planning of this project is positioned as the first small high-rise residential district in City A, which can draw lessons from our company's experience in developing small high-rise buildings in City B..
(8) Our good relationship background with a municipal government and the competent department of construction is beneficial to our future development in the local area.
(9) The first intervention of A City Property Management Company has certain complementary advantages for the property management of this project in the future.
(10) The difficulty of demolition has worried the funds in other places, which has created certain opportunities for our successful bidding.
Disadvantages and threats
(1 1) The demolition density is too high, and the cost and risk of demolition are the key to the success of this project.
(12) The detailed rules for the implementation of demolition in a certain city will be issued soon, and the prediction of demolition cost is risky.
(13) The cost calculation is uncertain because of the uncertainty of the standards for the demolition construction of municipal facilities.
(14) The involvement of foreign capital may make the listing price of land too high.
(15) There are uncertainties in the positioning of residential land in the planning and whether the commercial planning can be passed in the future.
(16) the formation of the concept of small high-rise residential buildings, property management fees, elevator operation and maintenance, etc. It will bring some resistance to future sales.
(17) Most residents in this plot are relocated for the second time, which is quite difficult.
(18) The garden is becoming more and more perfect, and it is a multi-storey residence, so the competition with this project will be fierce.
(19) The difficulty of demolition makes it possible to postpone the construction period of this project.
(20) The surrounding living facilities and traffic are not perfect.
Second, the market analysis
1 A city profile (reference)
A city is located on the south bank of the river, with an area of square kilometers and a population of 10 thousand.
Excellent ecological environment. There are national forest parks, national wildlife reserves and national waterfowl wetland reserves. The city's forest coverage rate reached 56%, and 1996 and 1997 were approved by the state as national eco-economic demonstration zones and local pilot projects to implement China's 2 1 century agenda.
The investment environment is good. Convenient transportation and communication, the highway has formed a transportation network with national highway, provincial highway and highway along the river as the skeleton; Water transport is an important port in the main stream of the Yangtze River? As a hub, Port A has a national opening port with an annual designed throughput of 5 million tons. The first phase of Nizhou New Port Area of Port A has started. Communication has formed a variety of communication modes and multi-functional communication service networks, mainly digital transmission and program-controlled exchange.
The project area is located on the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the river, bordering on City B, and is the political, economic and cultural center of City A. The whole area is 25 16 square kilometers, with a population of 620,000, and it governs 8 townships, 13 towns and 4 sub-district offices. Urban population 1.2 million.
2 A Urban Real Estate Housing Market Analysis
A city's real estate industry has experienced three stages from the beginning to the development: the first stage is from 1988 to 1993, with residential construction as the main part. Most of the houses built are welfare and the commercialization rate is low. The real estate industry is in its infancy. From 1994 to 1998, in the second stage, the unified agent construction behavior gradually disappeared, and commercial housing development gradually rose. 1999 has always been the development and standardization stage of the real estate industry. South Gate of Yicheng District? Two point one line? Starting from the transformation of the old city and the development of Xiyuan residential area, a new round of urban construction climax has been set off. Especially after the land reform to the city, the pace of urban infrastructure construction has accelerated, the population and scale of urban built-up areas have expanded rapidly, urban construction and real estate development have interacted positively, and the real estate market has entered an orderly development period. At this point, a city's real estate industry has basically achieved the entrepreneurial task and completed the original accumulation. The quality of residents' housing has been significantly improved, the industrial structure has become more reasonable, and the market system has been basically established.
In 2003, the main features of the real estate industry in City A were as follows:
One of the manifestations: the investment has increased greatly. The investment in real estate development was 460 million yuan, up by 33.4%, accounting for 65% of the city's investment in construction systems and 12.6% of the city's investment in fixed assets.
The second performance: the market is prosperous. The completed area of commercial housing in the main city is 200,400 square meters, the sales area is 220,400 square meters, and the digested vacant housing is 20,000 square meters. Urban per capita housing construction area has reached 26 square meters.
Performance 3: House prices have risen steadily. The price of commercial housing in urban areas increased by 17% compared with last year, with a net increase of about 400 yuan/square meter.
Performance 4: The trading market continues to heat up. The city handled 1. 1.20 million real estate transactions throughout the year. There were 7,938 real estate transactions in a certain city, covering an area of 896,200 square meters, up by 25% and 35% respectively year-on-year. Among them, there were 2,305 transactions in stock houses, covering an area of 244,000 square meters, with a turnover of 88 million yuan.
Performance 5: the effect of stimulating the economy is remarkable. The added value of the real estate industry accounts for 14% of the city's GDP, driving the output value of related industries to 887 million yuan and the sales of social goods to 61600 million yuan; The real estate industry turned over 28 million yuan in state taxes.
Future market forecast:
- ? From the perspective of purchasing power
With the economic growth, the disposable income of urban households has increased year by year. From 200 1 to 2003, the disposable income of urban households rose from 5222 yuan to 6028 yuan. Although house prices rose sharply last year, the consumer market is still Wenger.
? From the perspective of investment
Due to the long-term downturn in the stock market, bank interest rates have been lowered many times, and the real estate industry has a significant function of maintaining and increasing value, making the real estate market an important investment field. Coupled with the support of bank credit, it greatly stimulated market demand. At present, the proportion of commercial housing purchased through mortgage loans is 42%, increasing by 16% every year.
? From the perspective of consumption structure
With the development of the real estate market, residents' housing consumption concept has changed obviously. People are no longer satisfied? Just enough to live? Under the traditional concept, the demand for improved housing is more obvious. Housing consumption is made up of? Type of residence? Where to? Enjoy? Change. The consumer groups of second home buyers and third home buyers are gradually expanding. According to the survey, more than 95% of the buyers in Hui Jing Garden Phase I changed their houses because of the housing reform.
? From the perspective of demand relationship
According to the overall urban planning, the urban built-up area will increase from 14.6 square kilometers to 27.8 square kilometers, and the urban population will increase from120,000 to 300,000. Without considering the effective purchasing power, from the analysis of housing demand, the housing demand driven by a city's annual population growth, coupled with the housing demand of urban migrants and the needs of urban demolition, will provide a broad development space for the real estate industry.
3. Analysis of major competition events
Details of residential quarters are as follows:
Average unit price of construction area (10,000 ㎡) (RMB/㎡)
Xiangyang Community, No.22 Baoshan Road 1500
Xinhua Community in Huanghe Street 785 8 1344
Yinhe Community in Yinhe Street 170 1460
Xueyuan Road Chengguang Community 130 1400
6.9 1508, No.500 Hero Road, Taiyangshen Community
Details of some commercial outlets
Project area ㎡ Unit price/㎡ Location
HSBC Garden 40~~80 New Town 4000~5600
Qiu Shuang Garden 50~~70 Urban Area 5000~ 12000
36~~50, No.6800 Jianshe Road, Biyuan Community
Qiupu rd 550 Hao taoyuan community garage
Jianshe rd 550 Hao hehuacun garage
Third, the project financial analysis
(A), the demolition cost analysis
Houses in the enclosed area are all brick-concrete structures, including four five-story residential buildings (40 households in two experimental primary schools and 4 construction companies 16 households).
The demolition company demolished a set of resettlement houses for 30 households. There are two other houses? Fourth floor.
According to the attached drawings of the listing documents and on-site verification, the area of houses to be demolished in the enclosed area is 34,329 square meters for residential buildings and 600 square meters for commercial buildings, with a total of about 205 households. Most families moved from urban houses to this healthy house. More than 90% of households have land certificates, planning building certificates, real estate certificates and single-family water and electricity meters. Have some experience in house demolition.
Estimation of demolition cost:
In line with the "A City Housing Demolition Management Measures" and the provisions of the demolition compensation assessment report.
1, residence: 640 yuan/m2 *(0.9+0.3+0.08+0)*34329 m2 =34329*8 19.20 yuan =28 1223 16.80 yuan.
2. Business premises: 640 yuan/m2 * (0.9+1.5+0.3+0.45+2.7) * 600 m2 =600 m2 * 3,776 yuan/m2 = 2,265,600 yuan.
3, accessories (water, electricity, telephone, air conditioning, etc.)
Residential area: 34,329 m2 * 45 yuan /m2 = 1, 544,805 yuan.
Business premises: 600 m2 *45 yuan/m2 = 27,000 yuan.
4. Interior decoration: 34,929 square meters *80 yuan/square meter = 2,794,320 yuan.
5. Attic, fenced courtyard floor, etc. ：
34,929 square meters *48 yuan =1676,592 yuan.
6. Moving expenses, temporary transition expenses, etc. ：
1), moving expenses:
Residence: 200 households *300 yuan = 60,000 yuan.
Business premises: 9 households *500 yuan = 4,500 yuan.
Subtotal: 64,500 yuan
2), the transition fee:
Residence: 34,329 m2 *2.5 yuan/m2 *6 months = 514,935 yuan.
Business premises: 600 m2 * 16 yuan/m2 *6 months = 57,600 yuan.
Subtotal: 632,535 yuan
other charges
3), management fees, entrusted demolition fees:
34,929 m2 * 15 yuan/m2 = 523,935 yuan.
4) Service fee for house demolition assessment: 35,000 yuan.
5), reward:
34,929 m2 * 100 Yuan/m2 = 3,492,900 Yuan.
Subtotal of the above expenses: 38,533,208 yuan, and the compensation amount per square meter is 65,438+065,438+003.18 yuan.
According to the order of a municipal people's government, the house demolition in the urban area of this city can still be carried out in the first half of 2003. Reflection on the Administrative Measures for Urban House Demolition, implemented in July 2003 1. There are many difficulties in urban house demolition in a city, especially the national climate policy of urban house demolition is inclined to the demolished, and the judicial compulsory demolition has basically stopped.
1 103. 18 yuan/m2+100 yuan/m2 = 1203.5438+08 m2.
1203. 18 yuan *34929 m2 =42025874.2 yuan.
(B) Construction cost analysis
The construction scale of this plot is preliminarily planned. Two two-story outlets will be built along Donghu Road, with an area of 50* 10*2= 1000㎡ and a construction area of 2000㎡.
The main entrance is located between the two exits of Donghu Road, and the second door is located near the bridge. Two-story podium will be built along Jianshe East Road, which is basically the same as S small high-rise building. The podium will be built with 3 12 floors, with an area of110 *15 * 2 = 3,300m2. The building area of three sets 12-storey houses is 29.4 * 65438+.
Roughly arranged in the plot
A building with15th floor and 29.4 *13.8 *15th floor;
A building with 12 floors and 29.4* 13.8* 12 floors;
Three buildings with 40 * 15 * 12 floors;
A building, with floors 15 and 40* 15* 15;
Covering area: 32 1 1m2, building area: 4 1554m2.
Total construction area: 586 1 m2, building density: 20.7%.
Total construction area: 6 1460m2, plot ratio: 2. 17.
The basement is designed as a high-rise building, with an area of 486 1㎡ and a total of about 297 households.
Construction cost estimation
(a), the project upfront costs:
1, demolition cost
2. Land transfer fee
3. Supporting fee for urban infrastructure: 6 1460m2 * 50 yuan/m2 = 3.073 million yuan.
4. Civil air defense fund: supporting the construction of basement.
5. Planning technical service fee: 56160 *1.4+5300 * 2.2 = 90300 yuan.
6. Wall reconstruction: 6 1460 * 8 = 49 1.68 million yuan.
7. Bulk cement: 6 1460 * 2 = 122900 yuan.
8. Termite control fee: 6 1460 * 2 = 122900 yuan.
9. Quality supervision fee: 6 1460 * 2 = 122960 yuan.
10, construction drawing review: 61460 *1= 615000 yuan.
1 1, lightning protection audit: 61460 *1= 615000 yuan.
12, fire control review:
13, cultural relics: 2,000 yuan.
14. Planning and design: 65,438+10,000 yuan.
15, architectural design: 2000 *12+59460 * 30 =1807800 yuan.
16, geological exploration: 6 1460 * 2 = 122900 yuan.
17, measurement and positioning: 65438+ 10,000 yuan.
18, gas capacity increase: 2,500 yuan/household.
19. Supporting fee for water supply network: 20 yuan/㎡.
Subtotal: 6,279,300 yuan (18 and 19 foreign exchange receipts, not counted)
(2) Project cost
1, pile foundation: 59460* 100 yuan/㎡ = 5.946 million yuan.
2. Basement: 486 1 * 600 yuan /㎡= 29 1.66 million yuan.
3. Target: 59460 * 900+2000 * 500 = 54565438+4000 yuan.
4. Elevator: 9 buildings * 500,000 yuan/building = 4.5 million yuan.
5. Outdoor hydropower project: 61460 * 50 = 3.073 million yuan.
6. Residential greening, roads and other projects: 61460 * 60 = 3,687,600 yuan.
7. Supervision fee: 6337.66 *1%= 633,800 yuan.
Subtotal: 752,765,438+ten thousand yuan
The total is 81550,300 yuan.
(3) project cost analysis
According to the principle of combining comparative pricing with market pricing, the budget pricing of this project is as follows:
Small high-rise residence 1900 yuan /m2, shop 6000 yuan /m2, underground garage 800 yuan /m2.
Sales income residence1900 * 56160 =106704000
Store 6000*5300=3 1800000
Basement 486 1*800=3888800
Total:142,392,800 yuan
Business tax and surcharges142392800 * 5.5% = 7831604.
Cost142392800 * 4% = 5695712.
Total cost: demolition cost+Jian 'an cost+taxes and fees+expenses+land cost.
= 42025874.2+8 1550300+783 1604+56957 12+X = 137 103490.2
Gross profit: sales revenue? total cost
= 142392800- 137 103490.2
=5289309.8 yuan
Four. Project cost analysis conclusion
If the bidding price of land listing is less than 5.28 million, the project has a certain profit margin and is feasible. If the risk outside the project is high, the project is not feasible.
2
Generally speaking, the real estate feasibility study report is based on market demand, limited by resource input, with scientific methods as the strategy and systematic evaluation indicators as the result. Generally speaking, it is manifested in the following two issues:
Question 1: Is it feasible?
Question 2: How to maximize economic benefits?
Judging from the actual situation of real estate project development, from the construction technology alone, there is generally no major difficulty that cannot be broken for a while. Whether it is a long-span bridge or a super-high-rise building, such as Yangpu and nanpu bridge, the 88-story Jinmao Tower with a height of 420 meters, and the Oriental Pearl with a height of 468 meters, it is a good proof. It can be seen that the key lies in the return on investment, that is, whether the best economic benefits can be achieved while taking into account social and environmental benefits.
2. Project investment is the first magic weapon to win.
Before the implementation of real estate projects, investment feasibility analysis must be carried out. At this stage, feasibility analysis is to solve the possibility of success of a specific project. Of course, just because an investment plan is likely to be successful or feasible does not mean that the project is suitable. Under normal circumstances, feasibility analysis should not only study one scheme, but also study several schemes at the same time. Sometimes several schemes may be feasible and attractive. In order to choose the best scheme from several feasible schemes, researchers can only comprehensively consider the market, capital, risk and other issues on the basis of feasibility analysis, and comprehensively evaluate the reasonable choice. Feasibility study, at least can accurately answer three questions:
Is this project feasible?
If so, to what extent?
C. If you invest, what is the worst situation you may encounter, and what should you do for it?
The third operation link: the strategic analysis of real estate feasibility study.
Analysis Angle 1: The impact of social, economic and environmental protection on the real estate market
The real estate industry is not an isolated industry. Many places in this book emphasize that the real estate industry is regarded as the national economy? Nozzle industry? It's wrong to look at it. This is not just a matter of saying, but a basic question of understanding: does the real estate industry drive the development of the national economy or does the growth of the national economy drive the development of the real estate industry? If this problem is reversed, there will be a fundamental error in the judgment of the situation. Both government and enterprises will lead to. Ancestors? Decision-making tendency For example, in Hainan, Huizhou, Beihai and other places in the early 1990 s, the abnormal expansion and ups and downs of the real estate industry were the consequences of ignoring the development of the local national economy, reversing the primary and secondary, and not putting the real estate industry in a correct position.
Analysis angle 2: the influence of local government administrative behavior on the market.
The level of urban planning and planning control of some local governments directly affects local real estate development. As we all know, in Zhangjiagang City and Jiangyin City, where urban planning and management are good, real estate development has been in a relatively stable state. Advanced scientific planning, effective scale control and strict planning management have avoided the blind and rushing headlong into the real estate development in these two cities. In line with the principle of supporting, developing and managing together, there is basically no oversupply in the residential market here, and the pre-sale results of all properties are very good. In contrast, the scale of land transfer in many cities is seriously out of control, and the management of the real estate market is chaotic, which leads to serious land speculation, excessive supply of commercial housing, ups and downs of market prices, and improper planning and management by local governments, which brings great risks to developers.
Analysis angle 3: the influence of block environment on real estate marketing.
Gubei New District is not the center of Shanghai. Why is the property price so expensive? It turns out that the first Shanghai Foreign Trade Zone was first developed in the 1980s? Hongqiao Development Zone, with more and more foreign businessmen working here, the neighboring Gubei New District has naturally become the main target for foreign businessmen to buy or rent a house. The area is full of luxury houses, and the residents are mostly compatriots from Hong Kong and Taiwan and foreigners, so it has become the only one in Shanghai. A veritable foreign residential area. This makes Gubei New District enjoy a high reputation and naturally forms a unique social circle and living community. The building quality in this area is not bad, and there are many demanders who are willing to pay a lot of money. So prices and rents have been rising steadily. After entering 1996, although the house price in this community has declined, it is still the most expensive place in the country.
From the example of Gubei New District, it seems that the value of real estate does not depend entirely on the grade and quality of the building itself, but also on the surrounding neighborhood environment. It is precisely because of the development of Hongqiao Development Zone that there is a demand for noble houses in Gubei New District, and there is a clear functional complementary relationship between Hongqiao Development Zone and Gubei New District. Block function is the external motive force to realize the market value of real estate.
Investigation of investors' own situation
1, test your experience
Interlaced like a mountain, it is difficult to buy cattle across the mountain. It is impossible for any company to invest in areas that it doesn't know at all, and so is real estate investment. Even if it is a qualified enterprise in the real estate industry, if the company used to develop office buildings in the urban area and now the target investment object is suburban villas, can it be considered? That depends on whether the management of the company has talents with villa development experience, otherwise it is better to be cautious. Of course, things are not absolute when you think? Experience? When the risk is worth taking, there is no need to think about it.
2. Check your investment method.
Due to different enterprise backgrounds and strengths, real estate investment enterprises have different project investment methods. Maybe your enterprise will never rent a building to get long-term returns, but build some and sell some, or even develop them through pre-sale, so you should think twice about those projects suitable for long-term development and areas suitable for long-term investment. Sometimes a good project becomes smelly shit in the hands of some real estate enterprises, and you can't throw it away if you want.
3. Check your financing ability.
The development of every real estate project will encounter the problems of borrowing and financing. The question is whether your lending channels and financing channels are reliable. If the project is built halfway and your follow-up funds are not provided, it will be fatal. I've seen many such things: a half-built project has been shut down for two or three years because there is no follow-up fund, and the upfront cost has increased by half, so even if it is built, there is no profit at all, which is obviously a loss-making business. Analysis Angle 4: What is the influence of investors' own conditions on marketing? Too expensive and self-aware? . It is impossible for real estate developers not to analyze their own conditions when analyzing projects. It is impossible for a company to develop various projects and take various risks. Therefore, when investigating whether a region or a project is worth investing, we should also weigh whether the company is suitable for investing in that region.
The fourth operation link is the successful feasibility study process.
Step 1 Personnel arrangement and combination
The number of people in the project is responsible for project cost and time.
Certified real estate appraiser
Cost engineer
Market researchers and analysts
Economic analyst
producer
Sociology, environment and other experts
Step b: Market analysis
First, the macro factor analysis
When real estate developers plan to invest in a certain area of a country, the first thing to consider is the macro factors of the country, such as politics, economy, culture, geography, customs and religious beliefs, as well as the possibility of regional conflicts or wars.
B. Analysis of regional factors
Generally speaking, the development between China and the project area is unbalanced, and the differences always exist to varying degrees. It is not enough to study its macro factors, but also to analyze the factors in the area where the project is located. This is because: first, the macro-economy has different impacts on the regional economy, with great impacts on some areas and little impacts on others; Secondly, the development of regional economy is influenced by macro-economy. Time lag? Phenomenon, the macroeconomic situation often takes a long time to have an impact on the development of regional economy, some areas respond quickly, and some areas are obviously lagging behind, so investment must be considered; Third, the specific regional economies of the three countries make some regional economies more or less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and even form a trend opposite to macroeconomic trends. China's special economic zones, free trade unions and bonded areas are relatively less dependent on international capital. Even during China's macroeconomic adjustment, when domestic funds are tight, its international capital is less affected, and projects in these fields are less affected.
C. Micro-market analysis
The analysis of the real estate micro-market in the region where the proposed investment project is located can be divided into the following two parts: one is the analysis of the proposed investment real estate market, and the other is the analysis of the same type of real estate market as the investment project.
Step c: Market forecast
demand forecasting
Demand forecasting is based on the information, data and materials of real estate market survey, and uses scientific methods to analyze and predict the market demand law and changing trend of a certain kind of real estate, so as to infer the market demand for this kind of real estate.
Supply forecast
Supply forecasting is based on the information and data of real estate market survey, using scientific methods to analyze the market supply law and changing trend of a certain kind of property, so as to predict the supply situation of this kind of property in the market.
C prediction method
Usually it can be divided into time series analysis and causality analysis. Time sequence: The column analysis method of real estate feasibility study report can be divided into: moving average method, exponential smoothing method and so on. Causality analysis can be divided into linear regression method, nonlinear regression method and simulation method.
Step d: Cost calculation
In the feasibility study of real estate development projects, project cost calculation is an important link, which is jointly completed by appraisers and cost engineers. Whether the cost calculation is correct or not, like the prediction of the rental and sales market, has a great influence on the economic benefits of the project, but relatively speaking, the cost calculation is easier to grasp.
Generally speaking, the cost structure includes the following four parts:
A land upfront cost: refers to the cost of obtaining a reasonable land ownership certificate, completing the demolition of existing buildings on the land, opening construction water, electricity and roads, and completing site leveling. According to the different ways of land acquisition, it can be divided into three types: the upfront fee for new land acquisition, the upfront fee for old district reconstruction and the land lease fee.
B. Design, construction and installation expenses: refers to the expenses from planning and design to civil engineering, equipment installation, decoration works, community supporting and community greening after the completion of the site three links and one leveling.
C municipal supporting fee: refers to the supporting fee that must be paid to the municipal construction of the city when the project is developed, mainly the water and electricity fee generated by the new real estate project.
Step e: Financial evaluation
The indicators of project investment scheme evaluation are generally divided into two categories:
One is a dynamic index considering seven discount factors, that is, an index considering seven time value factors of money, including net present value, profit index, dynamic payback period, embedded return and other indicators.