Excuse me, this probability problem

In the explanation on the second floor, there is nothing wrong with conditional probability, but when it comes to the equal status of each station, this may not be so easy to understand. I think this is the questioner's question about the original question, that is to say, does the situation of getting off at the previous station have no effect on the probability of someone getting off at the later station? Intuitively, of course, it has an impact. For example, if 20 people get off at the first stop, then the probability behind is of course zero.

What we should pay attention to here is the impact, but we are considering an overall probability. To explain this problem thoroughly, it will involve some knowledge in universities, such as conditional probability and total probability. I don't know what level you are, so let's briefly talk about it here.

The essence of this question is that "the lottery has nothing to do with the order". For example, 100 people draw 100 hands, in which 10 wins the prize, then the probability of the first person winning the prize is the same as that of the last person, which is110, instead of comparing the first person with the last person as you intuitively think. Why? If you haven't studied conditional probability, then we should consider the simplest case, where two people draw lots and one of them wins the prize. Obviously, the probability that the first person draws is 1/2, so the probability that the second person draws is of course 1/2, so you see, the person who draws first has no advantage.

By the same token, the front station has no "advantage" compared with the back station, and the probability of someone getting off the bus is the same.

I wonder if you can understand this. If not, please keep asking. It is best to indicate what you have learned, especially about conditional probability and total probability.