The members of the expert committee are nominated by the federal government and then appointed by the federal president for a term of five years. According to the law, members of expert committees cannot be subordinate to the federal, state governments or legislative departments, nor can they be subordinate to the public service departments of the federal, state or other public law legal persons, unless they are university teachers or members of economic and social science research institutions. They may not be the chairmen of economic federations or employers' and employees' organizations, or maintain continuous business relations with these organizations. They must have no such working relationship in the year before being appointed as members of the expert committee. Every year on March 1 day, the expert committee decides to replace the next 1 member by drawing lots, and add 1 member according to the recommendation of the federal government and the appointment of the president.
The current members of the Five Sages Committee are:
Ruerup (Professor Dr. h.c. Bert Rürup), Chairman of Expert Committee, Professor of Finance and Economic Policy, Daams University of Science and Technology;
Professor Dr. Peter Bofinger, vice president, professor and doctor of the University of Wü rzburg, Germany;
Flantz (Professor Doctor. Wolfgang Franz), Professor and Doctor of National Economics at Manham University;
Professor Dr. Beatrice Weder Di Mauro, Professor of National Economics at Mainz University, Germany, Ph.D.;
Professor Dr. Wolfgang Vegard, Professor of National Economics, University of Regensburg, Germany.
The main task of the expert committee is to prepare an evaluation report on the overall economic development of Germany before mid-June 165438+ 10 every year and submit it to the federal government. This report is considered as one of the most authoritative economic forecasting reports in Germany. The task of the Committee of Experts is divided into three aspects:
1. Analyze the overall development of the national economy;
2. Diagnose the future development problems and trends of the national economy;
3. Reveal the effective ways to achieve the four overall economic goals of economic growth, full employment, price stability and foreign trade balance.
According to the law, its specific task is to study how to ensure sustained and moderate growth, price stability, high employment rate and foreign economic balance under the framework of market economic order. The formation and distribution of income and property should be considered in the study. In particular, we should reveal the root causes of the current and possible imbalance between supply and demand in the overall economy. In the research, we should rely on various assumptions to analyze and evaluate the corresponding different effects. The expert committee should reveal these erroneous development trends and put forward the possibility of avoiding or eliminating these trends. However, the expert committee shall not make recommendations on specific economic or social policy measures.
The national economic appraisal work of the expert committee is independent of the government and all economic interest groups. The German Bundestag has guaranteed the independent status of the expert committee by legislating and setting corresponding exclusive clauses.
Together with the government's annual economic report, the annual assessment report on the overall development of the national economy of the expert committee plays the role of unifying thoughts and pointing out the direction in the economic circle.
Main characteristics of the operation of the expert Committee
1. Centralized and single staffing
So far, these five experts are all well-known economists, excluding politicians and practitioners who only have rich professional experience in their own departments. The reason is that the participation of the latter two will easily affect the relative objectivity, independence and comprehensiveness of the appraisal.
The five economists not only reflected all schools and viewpoints of economic science, but also maintained basic consistency in their understanding of economic policy theory, practice and norms, thus ensuring the effectiveness of the evaluation report in economic policy analysis, evaluation and consultation.
2. Independence and self-reliance
The Law on the Establishment of Expert Committees contains exclusive clauses, which stipulate that the appraisal work of expert committees is independent of the government and economic interest groups. In addition to legal provisions, the appointment method and term of office of expert committees also help to maintain the independence of appraisal work. The Committee of Experts is appointed by the President of the Federation, not by the head of government, that is, the Federal Chancellor. The term of office of the Committee is five years, which is the same as that of the Federal President. Compared with the term of office of the Federal Chancellor (four years), the independence of the Committee is undoubtedly crucial. Maintaining the evaluation style, giving consideration to the consulting style and putting an end to the "echo style" are the necessary prerequisites for the evaluation report.
The annual evaluation report is an independent evaluation result. It does not represent the position of the government (Ministry of Economic Affairs), which is different from the annual economic report of the government. The latter focuses on summarizing and analyzing the current economic situation, problems and development trends from the standpoint of the government, focusing on the implementation of recent policy objectives and measures; The former is more inclined to objectively diagnose and identify the current economic situation, provide some general and principled policy suggestions, and point out the medium and long-term economic development direction and policy direction. Therefore, only by referring to the two reports can the economic circles fully grasp the policy trend and long-term trend.
4. The evaluation report should pay equal attention to objective analysis, subjective analysis, empirical method and normative method.
The third part of the task stipulated by the law for the expert Committee itself requires it to make a value judgment, and then answer "how" after answering "how". Experts in the Committee have different economic theoretical backgrounds and different views on many issues, but they all have basically the same value orientation and economic ideological principles, that is, they pay attention to order policy, and the core of order policy is to establish and maintain a competitive order. Only on this basis can it effectively determine the long-term development framework of the national economy and provide policy suggestions in a normative sense.
5. The law prohibits the committee from making recommendations on specific economic and social policy measures.
This also determines the evaluation style and macro-normative function of the evaluation report, which helps the Committee not to get involved in the conflict of interests of economic interest groups.
6. Protection of ethnic minorities.
According to the law, the appraisal report can state a few different opinions of the expert Committee.
7. The federal government explained its position to the legislature.
Before mid-June 165438+ 10 every year, the expert committee prepares an evaluation report on the overall economic development of Germany and submits it to the federal government. The report was submitted by the federal government to the legislative branch in time and published by the expert Committee. At the latest, within 8 weeks after receiving the evaluation report, the federal government must state its position on the evaluation report to the legislature, especially the economic policy inference drawn by the federal government.
Some examples of recognition
Generally speaking, the appraisal quality is worthy of recognition. The first few assessments of the expert Committee have aroused widespread concern. Especially in the period of 1966- 1967, Germany experienced the first great recession (1967, the unemployment rate rose from 0.7% in 1966 to 2. 1%, and the GDP growth rate was only 0./kloc-0. It is particularly noteworthy that the appraisal opinions of the exchange rate expert committee, which was hotly debated at that time, were contrary to the government. Later, the Committee also pointed out that the monetary policy of the federal bank should shift to controlling the amount of money (that is, setting the annual money supply target, which was formally implemented in February 1974), and advocated that the country should shift to a supply-oriented economic policy and demand to improve the supply conditions, that is, the production conditions. These ideas have adapted to the new international economic relations since the 1973 oil crisis. At that time, the basic economic policy of the Federal Republic of Germany mainly followed the evaluation and consultation plan of the Committee.
There are also some mistakes in the appraisal work, but its overall appraisal work is still relatively successful, which is why it maintains the nickname of "Five Sages Committee". There are many reasons for some mistakes, such as the weakness of economic theory on which the external economic framework conditions change. For example, in the appraisal report of 1993- 1994, the Committee made a major mistake in the economic diagnosis of 1994. According to the diagnostic data of this report, 1994, the real GDP of West Germany was zero growth, while that of East Germany was 7.5%. But the actual result is that West Germany grew by 2%, East Germany by 9.5% and Germany by 2.8%. In the appraisal report 1994- 1995. The Committee attributed this diagnostic error to the unexpected sharp increase in foreign demand, that is, the export boom. In other years, the economic growth budget also has errors. For example, in the evaluation report at the end of 2004, the "Five Sages Committee" predicted that Germany's economic growth in 2005 was 1.4%. The German Federal Statistical Office announced the economic growth of 0.9% in 2005 in June 5438+1October 2006. According to the available data, it was adjusted to 1% in June 5438+February 65438+1October 2006. According to the annual report of the Five Sages Committee at the end of 2005, the economic growth rate of Germany will reach 1% in 2006. But in fact, since the World Cup, the German people have recovered their self-confidence, and the export demand and domestic demand are strong, leading to accelerated economic growth: according to the speech of German Finance Minister Steinbrü ck on February 5, 2006, Germany's economic growth in 2006 was at least 2.5%. These deviations show that even if the forecasting work is basically accurate, the development variables of the overall economy are still very large. It can be said that these forecast figures are mainly directional, and the actual growth rate depends on the influence of various factors.
Can China learn from it?
In addition to the "Five Sages Committee", there are also some large scientific research institutions in Germany that issue semi-annual diagnostic reports. Since 1975, an economics college has also issued a memorandum every year to provide alternatives different from the expert Committee. Their short-term goal is to provide a socially and politically feasible full employment strategy for practical economic policies. The long-term goal is to establish a "democratic new economic system". In addition, some economic associations and federations (such as agricultural associations, employers' associations, trade unions, etc.). ), banks (such as federal banks, etc. ) and a considerable number of research institutions are conducting their own economic analysis and diagnosis. In terms of economic policy research, in addition to the "Five Sages Committee", there are many expert committees in Germany that specialize in studying a specific issue. The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs also has scientific committees and full-time departments to draft economic reports for the government.
It can be seen that the work of the Committee of Experts is facing challenges, but on the other hand, the research and consulting work of other institutions has also promoted the work of the Committee of Experts and provided different choices for the government's economic decision-making.
The overall economic appraisal work of the German Five Sages Committee has great independence. On the one hand, the appraisal report submitted by it is published publicly, which improves the transparency of the appraisal results; On the other hand, the government needs to state its views on the appraisal results to the parliament and explain its corresponding economic countermeasures. In addition, the government (Ministry of Economic Affairs) has its own team to submit government economic work reports. The combination of independent evaluation report and government summary report can provide administrative transparency and realize an important means of administration according to law, which is worth learning from in China.