Solving it with high school mathematics is very simple. Now the third year of high school has almost forgotten. Let me think about it.
The first one is 1/3 (one third).
The second draw is {1-(1/3)} *1/2 =1/3 (here1-kloc-0//3 = 2/3 is the probability of the first miss.
The third draw is1-1/3-1/3 =1/3 (minus the probability of the previous two draws is the third draw *.
Another explanation is possible: you can simply see that the probability that everyone won't win the prize is 2/3)
So if you choose B, everyone's chance of winning is 1/3, and everyone's chance of not winning is 2/3, so the lottery is fair.
Answer supplementary questions:
Specifically, it is still a bit complicated. What you said is one of the probabilistic events.
Such a dead-end argument can only be solved in the same way.
As you said, if the first person wins the lottery, the others have no chance, right?
* But the risk of the first person's lucky draw is also great, only one third, and the winning probability is only 1/3.
If you can't win, the second person will choose 1. Based on the fact that the first person can't win, his chances of winning are 1/2.
Similarly, if you haven't drawn the second picture, you don't even need to draw the third picture, and enjoy the success, because 100% won.
Looking back, as you said, if the first person wins the first time, the people behind will have no chance.
The lottery is fair.
So all situations in the world are probabilistic events, and all events are included together, which is the probability sum of 1.
* So you have to look back at the three formulas in front of me and really understand their meanings. These things written later just follow your meaning, and maybe you will become more and more confused.
If you want to know more about probability events, you can borrow a high school math book, which is also available in universities. It is called probability theory.
The best advice an experienced person can give you is to ask your subject teacher if you don't understand. It would be great if you can beat the teacher. I can see that you are a child who loves to learn. There is a cliche, but the same is true.
"Diligent and inquisitive" is inseparable.
Are you still there? !