Since the second half of last year, the global low interest rates and monetary easing have pushed up the housing prices in the United States, Germany, Japan and other major countries, and it has suddenly become more difficult to regulate the property market in China. In the first half of the year, the positioning of "housing and not speculating" has not changed, and the determination behind it is stronger. The reporter found that in the first half of the year, the China property market ushered in at least three policy "heavy punches".
The data map shows a newly-built residential building on the Minjiang River in Fuzhou. China News Service reporter Lu Mingshe
The first record: strong supervision of real estate finance
Research shows that excessive financialization is the source of real estate risks, and there is a saying in the industry that "ten major crises, nine major real estate". Be wary of real estate financial risks, and the real estate financial environment continued to tighten in the first half of this year.
On the one hand, strictly investigate commercial loans and consumer loans that illegally flow into real estate. In the first quarter, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places indicated that they would strictly investigate the illegal business loans flowing into the property market, and the four places disclosed a total of about 654.38 billion yuan of illegal funds. In June, Xiamen Housing Management Bureau said that it had verified that 2725 * * * loans totaling 654.38+793 million yuan had illegally flowed into the property market.
On the other hand, mortgage interest rates in some cities have been rising since the second quarter. In June of 20021year, the five-year LPR of mortgage interest rate was 4.65%, which has remained unchanged for 14 months. However, the interest rates of the first and second suites in key cities continued to rise. The interest rate of the mainstream first home loan and second home loan in 72 cities monitored by RealData in that month was 5.52% and 5.77%, which was not far from the high point of 20 19 1 1.
The centralized management system of real estate loans implemented this year is considered to be an important reason for the high mortgage interest rate. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that banks used a lot of real estate loans in the first quarter, so the amount of bank loans in the second quarter was limited, and some banks raised mortgage interest rates and extended the lending cycle.
The financing of real estate development enterprises has also been put on a "tight spell". According to many media reports, recently, the central bank has included the business ticket data of the "three red lines" pilot housing enterprises in its monitoring scope. Supply chain financing, which is closely related to it, has also been strictly controlled. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the scale of real estate trust, as one of the important financing sources of housing enterprises, has also continued to decline.
Liang Tao, vice chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said in June that the problem of excessive capital inflow in the real estate market has been initially reversed. With the tightening of the credit environment, the new and second-hand housing market has shown a high callback trend since April.
Data Map: Real estate development. China News Service reporter Zhang Bin photo
The second note: it is strictly forbidden to speculate on the school district.
For a long time, the school district housing is at the top of the "pyramid" of the property market, and the house price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. At the end of April this year, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China rarely "named" the school district, and clearly stated that "it is necessary to prevent the speculation of housing prices in the name of the school district".
Since then, many cities including Guangzhou, Chongqing, Xiamen, Chengdu, Dalian and Xi have taken measures to rectify the chaos in school districts. Some cities have also introduced educational reform policies such as "multi-school scribing", "school places arrive at schools" and "teacher rotation" to dilute the concept of school district housing.
Take Beijing as an example. This year, Dongcheng, Xicheng and Haidian, the three districts with the most concentrated educational resources in Beijing, have implemented a strict "multi-school system" policy. The equal sign between "buying a house" and "going to a good school" was taken away. Well-known school districts such as Desheng, Yuetan and Financial Street in Xicheng District of Beijing were hit hard, and some owners began to lower the listing price.
The Shanghai Municipal Education Commission has previously announced a new enrollment plan, and more than 50% of the experimental demonstration high schools in the city are allocated to all districts and schools. The certainty that buying a high-priced school district can go to a good high school is further weakened.
Recently, some school districts in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have shown signs of cooling down.
The data map shows a real estate development project under construction. China News Service reporter Zhang Bin photo
The third record: centralized land supply
"Centralized land supply" is a "new thing" in 202 1 property market. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Natural Resources proposed that key cities should focus on publishing and supplying residential land. On June 29, 22 key cities completed the first batch of centralized land supply this year, with a turnover exceeding one trillion yuan. However, Kerui Research Center pointed out that except for a few cities such as Changchun and Qingdao, the overall heat of the first round of centralized land auctions in most cities continued to be high.
This new policy is expected to continue to improve. The agency believes that after gaining the relevant experience of centralized land auction, it is expected that the transaction volume of the second and third centralized plots will increase compared with the first time, and the pace of land supply will be significantly accelerated, especially under the adjustment of land auction rules. The opportunities for small and medium-sized housing enterprises to acquire land will also increase.
It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, in addition to the short-term administrative regulation of second-hand housing purchase restriction, loan restriction, price restriction, sales restriction and reference price, the construction of medium and long-term basic system and long-term mechanism in the property market was accelerated. Many researchers in Kerui Research Center believe that the long-term mechanism reform of real estate will enter the "deep water area", and the expectation of speeding up the supply of rental housing and reforming the real estate tax system will be strengthened.
In this context, Huang Yu, executive vice president of the Central Reference Institute, said that it is expected that the sales scale of the national real estate market will achieve a new breakthrough this year, with the sales area exceeding 654.38+08 billion square meters and the sales volume expected to reach 6543.8+09 trillion yuan. Under the continuous overweight policy, the price increase of commercial housing is expected to narrow, and the annual increase will remain at around 6%.