Darius was very angry when the news of defeat came. He immediately sent messengers to all cities, ordered them to prepare for the invasion of Greece, and collected much more warships, horses, food and transport ships than before. Just as Darius made these preparations, the Egyptians defected to the Persians, so Darius decided to crusade against them. But in the second year of Egypt's defection, Darius died and his son Xue Xisi succeeded to the throne. Xue Xisi immediately conquered Egypt. He had no intention of attacking Greece, because he didn't hate the Athenians like his father Darius, but decided to go to Greece under the temptation of Persian aristocrats headed by Mardonii uz and Greek aristocrats who lost power and influence.
Before the expedition, Xue Xisi called the first-rate figures from Persia to discuss with them. The purpose of this meeting is that he wants to hear their opinions. When Xue Xisi and Mardonii uz announced that they would build a bridge in the ancient Greek channel, and then led an unusually large navy and army to Greece through Thrace to punish the Athenians who committed crimes against Persia and Darius, no one dared to stand up against it except Darius' brother and Xue Xisi's uncle Altaba North.
Altaba, from the previous Persian failed war experience, think it is unwise to expedition to Greece. Here, I think it is necessary for us to review several failed wars in Persian history in order to continue writing.
The first war to be recalled was Cambyses's expedition to Ethiopia.
After Ju Lushi's son Gambisis conquered Egypt, he planned three conquests, one for Carthage, one for Amon and one for Ethiopians living on the Libyan coast. He sent the navy to attack the Carthaginians and some troops to attack the Amons. As for the Cushite, he first sent some spies to scout there to find out whether it was true or not. The king of Ethiopia expressed his contempt for the Persians in words and manners. When the spies came back to tell Cambyses all this, Cambyses was very angry and immediately ordered the army to March on the Ethiopians. He neither ordered the preparation of any food, nor considered that he was leading his army to a distant country. Because he was in a crazy state instead of thinking calmly, he immediately led all the troops to set off after listening to the spies. When he arrived in Thebes (not a Greek city-state) on the March, he sent about 50 thousand people from his own army to enslave the Amons. He personally led other troops to Ethiopia. However, when his army had not finished one-fifth of the journey, all the food he carried was consumed. After the food was definitely consumed, they began to eat pack animals until there was none left. Even in such a grim situation, Xue Xisi still rushes forward blindly. When his soldiers couldn't get anything to eat from the land, they ate grass. But when they arrived in the desert, some of them did a terrible thing: they drew lots to choose one out of every ten people to eat. After hearing such a thing, Cambyses was afraid that they would become cannibals, so he gave up the war against the Ethiopians and returned to Thebes, but he had lost many troops. As for the part of the army he sent to attack Amons, it is said that the whole army was swallowed up by the yellow sand in the desert.
The second war that needs to be remembered is Darius' expedition to the Stalag people on the grassland in southern Russia.
When Darius was planning to go out to the grassland of South Russia, Altaba Noth mentioned above also advised Darius not to take risks against such a powerful enemy, but this did not stop Darius from going his own way. After Darius got everything ready, he left Susa with a great army. According to Herodotus, excluding the navy, the total number of troops and cavalry is 700,000, and the number of warships is 600.
After Darius crossed the sea and entered Europe, journey to the south conquered the people who never surrendered to him along the way and reached the East River (Danube), the largest river in Europe. Ionia has built a bridge over the river to wait for Darius' main force. After the Persian main force crossed the river, Darius ordered Ionia to destroy the pontoon bridge and join the navy to March with him on the mainland. Just as the Cambodian people were preparing to destroy the bridge according to Darius' orders, a general advised Darius to say? Oh, the king! Since the land you want to attack is the land of a city with neither cultivated land nor inhabited land, please leave the bridge in its original place and let the people who want to build it guard it. In this way, if we meet the Scythians and realize our wishes, we will have a way back; And even if we don't meet them, at least our retreat is safe: because my personal worry is never that we will be defeated by the Scythians, but that we won't meet them and get lost and suffer? . Darius appreciated his advice so much that he ordered Ionia to guard the bridge on the East River for 60 days. If Darius' army doesn't come back after 60 days, these Ionians can go home by boat.
On the whole, the land of skitters is square. It has two sides on the mainland and two sides on the coast, which basically forms a four-sided square, and the length of each side is about 4 thousand sight distance (about 800 kilometers). Anticipating that they could not repel the Persians independently in an open battle, these Scythians sent messengers to their neighbors for help. Skitters have repeatedly stressed that the Persians are aiming at all the nationalities they meet along the way, not just skitters. Once the Scythians are destroyed, their lips will die and their teeth will be cold, and these neighboring countries will be enslaved by the Persians, thus calling on their neighbors Qi Xin to deal with the Persians together. After the Skeptics showed their attitude, three of the eight neighboring countries expressed their willingness to support the Skeptics, but five neighboring countries were unwilling to support them. In view of this, the Skeletons decided to retreat secretly and drive away their livestock, fill wells and springs on the retreat road, and dig up grass on the ground. As for their troops and those of their neighboring countries, they are divided into two parts. The first part of the army, if the Persians attack them, will retreat in front of them in the direction of Lake Miotis. If the Persians turn back, they will attack and chase. The second part of the army, like everyone else, retreated secretly. They must keep a day's distance from the enemy, avoid meeting the enemy and do what they decide. But first, they must always retreat to countries that reject Yan and his allies, so that these countries will also be forced to fight. After that, the army returned to its own land and, after consultation, attacked the enemy when it felt beneficial to it.
The Scythians carried out their plan as scheduled. With broad strategic depth and strong mobility, they led Persians to become collective armed forces in their own land and the land of neighboring countries. They don't lack materials, because they feed on livestock, which can easily follow them; They don't worry about where they are conquered, and they don't need to protect any place. Because they are nomadic people, they will hardly suffer any losses in terms of strength or material. On the other hand, their opponent, the Persian army of 700,000 people, can't find the target of attack on the grasslands of South Russia, but they are marching endlessly and the materials are becoming more and more scarce. Because Skitya used scorched earth, they couldn't get much supplies from the local area, which made them weaker and weaker. Their morale is decreasing day by day, because they are constantly attacked by each other, and the Persians are helpless against such attacks day or night. Because of the superior tactical maneuverability of the other side, once the Persians assembled infantry to prepare for a counterattack, the Scythians had already fled. In short, after a long period of confrontation, the Scythians did not see any losses, while the Persians looked exhausted, and the lack of supplies in Persia was the most fatal.
The Scythians thought the time was ripe, so they sent troops to Ionia to guard the bridge on the East River, hoping that they would betray Darius and destroy the bridge. Fortunately, Ionia didn't betray Darius. At the same time, Skittia drew infantry and cavalry to fight the Persians. When Darius realized that the Scythians were so powerful and so indifferent to himself, he thought that how to return to his country safely was the first priority at present, so he left behind those soldiers who were extremely difficult, even if they were killed, and led those soldiers who were still elite in the Long March and attack to flee south. Fortunately, Darius escaped from Skitolia, but in this military operation, the Skitolians did not suffer any losses, while the Persians suffered losses from the other side's uninterrupted attacks. In the case of long-term marching and lack of logistics supplies, they formed many non-combat attrition and abandoned a large number of soldiers when they fled.
To make a reasonable analysis of the above examples, we must first understand the ancient logistics system. Perhaps some readers think that understanding these is far from the theme of this article, but in fact, if you want to make a thorough analysis of the third expedition, you must understand the ancient logistics system, because logistics has always been the first priority in long-distance operations. For the description of logistics in the classical war era, the most detailed and thorough description I have ever seen is the contemporary American military historian Archer? Jones's masterpiece "The Art of War in the West" is summarized as follows:
No matter whether it is a militia army or a professional army, as long as it is concentrated, it will bring about food supply problems. The army assembled for the battle is equivalent to a city: densely populated and does not produce its own food. However, the army is different from the city. There is neither an existing transportation network nor any existing mode to meet various needs.
The ability of the army to obtain food supplies in a specific area depends in part on the season of the year. If a region can be self-sufficient, it can get supplies from local grain storage by buying or forcing. Just after harvesting, the army has the right to use the harvest of that year; If it is before harvesting, the army will find the granary empty; In winter, between harvests, there is only six months' supply in the granary.
The size of the army and the proportion of population in concentrated areas also affect the support ability of the army. Assuming that soldiers deprive residents of everything, if the ratio of soldiers to residents is 1: 1, then a resident can live as long as a soldier can. If the ratio of soldiers to residents reaches 10: 1, then the survival time of soldiers can only be110 of residents. For example, if the army arrives in an area 180 days before the harvest, and its quantity is 10 times that of the local residents, assuming that it finds all the food, gives it to the local residents completely, and makes the local residents have no dependence on survival after it leaves, then it can only stay in the area 18 days and must leave. Of course, the army can be deployed in a larger area, thus effectively reducing the ratio of soldiers to residents and enabling them to stay in the local area for a long time.
If a strong army wants to stay in one place for a long time, it must have waterway transportation channels. In the Roman Empire, ships were usually very small, and the length of ships reached 180 feet, which was very unusual. Its width is 1/4 to1/3 of the total length; The big ship has a deep cabin covered with a deck. Because these ships are short and thick in design and use only one mast, their speed is very slow. The original sails make it impossible to sail against the wind, but the lack of navigation equipment means that sailors prefer to sail in the waters where they can see the shore, so they have to find a sheltered place on the shore for the night. At the same time, even a small boat can carry 60000 pounds of food, which is equivalent to the consumption of 20000 people a day. The alternative to water transportation is land transportation, which means either using slow ox carts that can only walk 2 miles per hour on average, or using donkeys that can only carry 100 pounds. The lack of suitable roads also limits the use of ox carts. Even on the reconstructed traffic trunk line, the cost of the best land transportation means (in European history) is at least 30 times that of water transportation.
Therefore, the army found it very difficult to pull supplies from its direct concentration, no matter how far it was. A strong army should stay in one place for a long time, usually with waterway transportation channels. An army with a large proportion of residents and resources can only move to new areas frequently unless it has convenient water transportation and abundant sea supplies. This maneuver for logistical needs may just meet the needs of resisting or attacking the enemy.
Cavalry brings another major supply problem. In battle, the maximum consumption of a horse is 20 pounds a day. If the ratio of the number of horses in the army to the number of horses in concentrated areas is the same as that of soldiers to local residents, then the time for raising horses in the local area is the same as that for raising soldiers. But if the proportion of horses in the army is large, then the amount of feed determines how long the army can stay in one place. An army composed entirely of cavalry moves more frequently than an army composed only of infantry. If the assembly area of the army is far away from the enemy, you can evacuate the army and raise supplies from a larger area. If there are cavalry, we can disperse them further, because cavalry is very mobile, and similarly dispersed, cavalry can gather again faster than infantry. In this way, relying on the strong mobility of cavalry to meet the demand for feed will not force infantry to leave the area before consuming local food resources.
Knowing the ancient logistics system, it is not difficult to analyze the above two examples. The failure of Gambisis' expedition to Ethiopia lies in that, on the one hand, they seldom get supplies from the local area, because the areas they marched through lacked food and grass. On the other hand, because they were not prepared before the war, they could not get supplies from the rear, but even if they did, it actually seemed impossible, because the expedition area was too far away for them to rely on water transportation.
Darius' expedition to the Scythians on the grassland of South Russia looks very different from the first war, but it is actually a failure caused by poor logistics. Herodotus is far superior to the Zanchitis: if they don't want to be discovered, no one can catch them. It turns out that they don't build fixed cities or fortresses, but their homes move with people and they can ride and shoot. They don't live by farming, but by animal husbandry. Their home is on the grass. How can such a person not be invincible and difficult to fight? ? Darius led his 700,000 troops to do collective armed work on the grasslands in southern Russia, but they could hardly get supplies from the local area, because it was the scorched earth of skitters. Of course, if the Scythians have a fixed city or fortress, the Persians are likely to defeat the Scythians, but in fact, the Persians can't find an opponent to fight, so the Persians have to become an endless armed force on the land of the Scythians and the land of their neighbors.
Now let's take our thoughts back to the third expedition. Altaba North thinks this expedition is risky. He thinks that the two most important things in the world are hostility to Xue Xisi, while Xue Xisi doesn't believe that his Lu Haijun is strong enough to sweep Greece. If Altaba North thinks its Lu Haijun is not enough, it will recruit a stronger army. Altaba North answered him:? King, anyone with normal judgment can't find anything wrong with the number of this army or ship. And if you gather more troops, the two things I said will be more hostile to you. These two things are land and sea. Because, I think, if there is a storm, there is not enough harbor anywhere in the sea to ensure that your navy can accommodate you and rescue your ship. And even if there is such a harbor, it is not enough to have it in one place. It is necessary to have such a harbor along the coast of the mainland you pass. Since you see that there is no harbor to accommodate your navy, you should remember that people can't control accidents, but are at the mercy of them. Now that I have told you one of these two things, I will tell you the other. I want to explain why land is your enemy. If nothing stands in your way, the farther you go in the vast unknown land ahead, the more it will appear to be your enemy, because no one will be completely satisfied with his success. So I said, if no one resists you, the expanding territory will be hungry as time goes by. When making a decision, he is timid, because he considers all the things that will happen to him, but he is very bold in his actions. Can such a person be said to be the smartest person? .
Altaba North said that land is the enemy of Xue Xisi, because with the passage of time, the expanding territory will also produce hunger. In fact, in essence, it is about logistics. With the advance of the expeditionary force, the army will be farther and farther away from the rear supply area, and it is almost impossible to obtain supplies from the rear by land transportation; Greece is a mountainous area with underdeveloped agriculture, so the Persian army's supplies from the local area are also quite limited; Therefore, the most likely source of supply for the Persian army is shipping, and it is indeed the case. See British military historian liddell? Textual research on Hart's artistic masterpiece Indirect Route Strategy:? The army he mobilized was so huge that it was impossible to transport it by sea, so he was forced to go by land. Therefore, the Persian army's supply reserve could not be solved, so it had to call for naval support and assistance. So the Persian army can only advance along the coastal areas, and the naval fleet must be close to the army to move? . So the lifeblood of the Persian army has to be maintained by the navy, but what if the Persian navy is defeated? Without food and clothing, such a huge Persian army will be in a state of failure if it fights in barren Greece. As soon as the Salami naval battle ended, the Persian navy was defeated, and King Xue Xisi of Persia immediately led most of his troops back to Asia. It is based on this consideration. Of course, the Persian navy is also very strong, with thousands of warships and 3000 transport ships. However, as Altaba North said, if there is a storm, there is no seaport anywhere on the sea that is large enough to ensure that the Persian Navy can accommodate and rescue its ships. And even if there is such a seaport, it is not enough to be in one place, but also on the mainland coast where the Persian army passes. There is little difference between historical facts and Altaba's judgment. Almost half of the Persian navy was destroyed by sea storms. Since the Persian army relies on the navy, which is vulnerable to wind and waves at sea, and Greece has a strong naval force, will the Persian expedition succeed? When making a decision, he is timid, because he considers all the things that will happen to him, but he is very bold in his actions. Such a person can be said to be the smartest person. Isn't it good advice?
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But Xue Xisi is not as clever as Altaba North. Millions of troops are ready to go. Where will the wheel of history go?