The listing of new shares in the secondary market in the later period may not be smooth, and even if it is listed, it may fall below the issue price. In this case, the first-level subscription will cost a lot of money, and it will take a while to wait, but it will still lose money.
The fund issued by 1999 tried 1 yuan fell below the issue price on the first day of listing, which eventually led to the government's intervention in the stock market and ushered in a historic "5. 19" rise.
This is true for stocks, as well as bonds and central bank bills.
Financial institutions buy central bank bills at a low price in the primary market (equivalent to investors buying bonds and stocks), and then sell central bank bills at a high price in the secondary market, thus achieving profitability, provided that the secondary market price is higher than the primary market. Once the secondary market price is lower than the primary market, financial institutions will lose money after buying central bank bills. This situation is called the interest rate inversion in the secondary market and the primary market of central bank bills.
When the market interest rate is upside down, financial institutions will not buy central bank bills, and the central bank cannot recover funds through central bank bills. It is bound to take other means to recover funds, such as raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates.
For example, if a financial institution buys central bank bills in the primary market (which is equivalent to buying them at a low price), it can earn 2% interest income. Assuming that the interest paid by a financial institution when selling central bank bills to others in the secondary market is 1.5% (which is equivalent to selling them at a high price), then the financial institution can earn 0.5% interest income difference, which is usually called spread. As for how to understand buying at a low price and selling at a high price? For example, central bank bills with a discount of 100 yuan can be bought in 98 yuan at a discount of 2% in the primary market and sold at a discount of 1.5% in the secondary market at a discount of 98.5%. 98 yuan buys at a low price and sells at a high price of 98.5 yuan. Only when the interest rate in the primary market is high can financial institutions obtain higher interest rates, and only when the interest rate in the secondary market is low can financial institutions obtain spreads. For example, financial institutions get 2% interest from the central bank and pay 1.5% interest in the secondary market, and get a 0.5% spread.
When the primary market interest rate is 1.5% and the secondary market interest rate is 2%, it can be considered that the primary market price is high (1.5% discount is 98.5 yuan) and the secondary market price is low (2% discount is 98 yuan). In other words, what you buy at 98.5 yuan can only be sold at the price of 98 yuan. This is called buying at a high price and selling at a low price. This is called the interest rate inversion in the secondary market and the primary market. Usually used for central bank bills, that is, the primary market interest rate of central bank bills is lower than the secondary market interest rate, or the secondary market interest rate of central bank bills is higher than the primary market interest rate. The price difference is for the open market. In this case, the world has an average interest rate. Inflation is serious in China, and the government keeps raising interest rates to alleviate the negative impact of negative interest rates, while the United States keeps cutting interest rates to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis. For example, China raised the interest rate to 4%, and the United States lowered the interest rate to 2%, but the world average interest rate was 3%. At this time, in order to maximize the income, Americans will invest their money in China, because the interest rate in China is 4%, and they can get 1 times the income in the United States. So American money will flow into China and cause inflation, which means it is much more beneficial to the stock market. Because the average interest rates in China, the United States and the world are inconsistent, there is a spread.
The interest rate between China and the United States is the interest rate inversion. Different from the general bank lending market, the market that triggered the arbitrage storm this time is the interbank lending market, where there is a lending rate with interest rates upside down, which is called SHIBOR interest rate in the industry. Take the lending rate data released by Shanghai Interbank Funding Center on February 4th as an example. The one-week lending rate is 0.9404%, which is 0.4 1.35% lower than the current 7-day call deposit rate of banks. According to the reporter's observation, within one week after the Spring Festival, the one-week, two-week and one-month lending rates in the SHIBOR interest rate are all lower than the 7-day notice deposit rate, and the interest rate is upside down. According to the person in charge of the treasury business of a state-owned commercial bank, the SHIBOR interest rate has been upside down for about two months.
Profit: the shortest day and the latest week
Behind the interest rate inversion, it means that as long as the peer institutions borrow funds from banks and deposit them in any bank, they can easily obtain risk-free profits, and this arbitrage turnover rate is extremely fast. The person in charge of the internal fund business of a bank introduced the most basic arbitrage model to the reporter. For example, an institution can obtain the lowest loan interest rate by providing overnight loans to banks. If the data on February 4th is only 0.8 156%, you can transfer to any bank for 7 days' notice deposit, that is, you will get 1.35% deposit interest. The institution can borrow money from the bank overnight again the next day and keep it for 7 days. Insiders of the bank said, "This arbitrage method can be as short as one day and as long as one week, that is, it can withdraw funds. At the same time, as a guarantee for the safety of funds, banks are profitable businesses for many institutions." In order to stimulate the economy (such as the property market), the central bank lowered the lower limit of the floating range of the loan interest rate, resulting in the phenomenon that the loan interest rate is lower than the deposit interest rate.
20 12 On June 7th, the People's Bank of China issued an "extremely urgent" document with the number of "Yinfa 20 12 142", entitled "Notice of the People's Bank of China on Lowering the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions and adjusting the floating range of deposit and loan interest rates" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice").
In addition to explaining how to adjust the benchmark interest rate of deposits and loans and the floating range of interest rates, this notice is most concerned about stipulating that "the lower limit of the floating range of individual housing loan interest rates is still 0.7 times of the benchmark interest rate".
At present, the latest benchmark interest rate for five-year deposits is 5. 1%, and it is 4.76% after 30% discount for loans over five years. There will be a negative spread (the loan interest rate is upside down) where the deposit interest rate is 0.34 percentage points higher than the loan interest rate.