Compared with the previous assessment, it is predicted that the global demand for petroleum and petroleum products will not grow healthily in the fourth quarter of 2020-202 1. The level of global oil reserves is still high, and international traders openly question OPEC+'s current measures to put extra oil into the market because there is no demand for these oils at present. Now India has become the hardest hit area of the epidemic, and the situation in Europe is not good. The one-day increase has surpassed that of the United States, and even the terrible exponential growth has forced it to return to the blockade. Therefore, the demand level of India and the European Union, the backbone of global crude oil consumption, is far worse than before the epidemic, and will continue to decline even with the arrival of winter.
For OPEC+oil-producing countries, oil is life, and the GDP of most countries depends entirely on energy exports. Therefore, the most important thing at present is not to sell the product at a good price, but to sell the product!
According to the previous production reduction agreement reached by OPEC+,the previous production reduction rate was about100000 barrels per day (May 2020), which will be reduced to 6 million barrels per day. As said in May, even the existing cuts are not enough, and relaxing the cuts will only prolong the current weak market conditions.
However, for Saudi Arabia, the leader of OEPC, the current oil price is too low to maintain the Saudi government's strategy. The latest report of Saudi government budget is based on the assumption of $50 per barrel. The reality is that the current oil price is at a low level of more than 40 dollars.
With the increase of domestic economic pressure and unemployment rate, if cooperation cannot bring necessary returns, the old choice of a new round of oil price war is not unimaginable.
The last low oil price war triggered the first negative oil price in the world, which made the United States, the world energy giant, suffer heavy losses. According to the data, as of June 4 10, 504 large enterprises in the United States filed for bankruptcy this year, exceeding the number of bankruptcy applications in any comparable period since 20 10. Among the enterprises that filed for bankruptcy, consumer, industrial and energy enterprises accounted for the bulk. Including the famous giants Whiting Oil Company and Chesapeake Energy Company.
Once a price war is fought, it will undoubtedly be the crisis of the whole industrial chain. It is not only the seller who suffers, but also the buyer. For example, some people speculate whether buyers can take the opportunity to hoard goods and earn a lot of money.
Taking the China market as an example, the semi-annual report in 2 020 shows that PetroChina achieved revenue of 929.045 billion yuan, down 22.3% year-on-year; The net loss was 29.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 205.5%; Sinopec earned 609 million yuan in the first half of the year, down 24.3% year-on-year; CNOOC's oil and gas sales revenue in the first half of the year reached 66.34 billion yuan, down nearly 30% year-on-year; The net profit was 65.438+0.038 billion yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year.
In the fourth quarter, Indian oil companies suffered a one-time loss of11300 million rupees, and even India's largest state-owned oil refining company had to sacrifice its life. Just in June, 50% of the Nayala petrochemical project worth as much as $9 billion was sold to Dutch oil giant Shell.
Therefore, the oil price is a double-edged sword, and the extreme price war will eventually lead to vicious melee.