How will North Korea's withdrawal from the preliminaries affect the 12 event?

The news that the North Korean team may withdraw from the top 40 was reported by the Korean media. It is reported that the Korean Football Association officially sent a letter to the AFC on April 30, saying that it would not send a team to participate in the World Cup preliminaries in South Korea, and the reason given was that it would be infected by COVID-19 if it went to South Korea. This is not the first time the North Korean team has made such a decision. They have already retired from the previous Olympic qualifiers. Originally, the Korean women's football team should have participated in the Asian women's football qualifier for the Tokyo Olympic Games, but because it was in a group with the Korean women's football team and the competition was arranged in Jeju Island, South Korea, the Korean women's football team finally announced its early retirement and missed the Tokyo Olympic Games.

So, what kind of response plan may the AFC implement? It is understood that at present, the AFC has prepared three sets of plans: the first set is that all matches related to the North Korean team are 0-3 losses; The second is that the North Korean team lost 0-3 in the remaining games; Third, the result of the Korean team was cancelled, and the second place in other groups deducted the result of the bottom team. Judging from the above three situations, the third scheme has the greatest influence on the China team.

Generally speaking, the first two schemes mainly affect the promotion form of Group H. At present, Sri Lanka's five games in Group H end with 0 points, while South Korea, North Korea and Lebanon all score 8 points. However, South Korea played less 1 game, and Turkmenistan ranked first with 9 points in 5 games. Specifically, the results of the first five games of the North Korean team were: 2-0 victory over Lebanon and 0-0 draw with Lebanon; 0-0 draw with South Korea; 1-0 wins Sri Lanka; 1-3 lost to Turkmenistan. If AFC implements the first plan, Lebanon will benefit the most. They will add five points and eight goal difference, so they will immediately become a hot spot in qualifying. Of course, South Korea will also add five points. On the contrary, Turkmenistan, with the leading points, will only increase by three points, and the top position will not be guaranteed. As for the second plan, all the remaining three games of the North Korean team were awarded a "0-3 fiasco". This scheme is relatively "cheap" for Sri Lanka, South Korea and Turkmenistan. However, the Lebanese team in the same group "suffered a loss". After all, their two rounds of matches with North Korea have ended, and Lebanon's record is 1 and 1.

However, whether in Scheme 1 or Scheme 2, there are still five teams in Group H in name. This means that in the second ranking of each group, the ranking basis of each group has not changed. So the China team will not be affected. But if it is the third option, it will have a great influence on the China team. According to the regulations of the AFC, the four teams with the best performance in the second place of the eight groups will also participate in the third stage of 12. Once the North Korean team quits, all teams will only count the scores between the four teams when calculating the points, that is, the last place in the group will not be counted in the effective score, which means that the goal difference is greatly reduced for the China team, so the advantage in ranking is no longer.

Although the final selection plan of the AFC has not yet been determined, the safest way for the China team is always to be a good player and try to get all the points of the remaining games, so as to ensure the smooth promotion to the 12 semi-finals.

Process Editor wuyue