From the point of view of probability, which probability is higher, 1 or 9?

1. From the calculation point of view, the first failure probability is 9/ 10, and the second failure probability is 1/9, so 9/10×1/9 =1/kloc.

2. Logically, this is a box. There are ten balls in it, only one ball has a prize, and ten people draw a ball. Isn't it different to draw lots first and then win the prize?