Main recommendations
The issuance of nearly one trillion local special bonds has accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound.
The "Double Hundred Actions" plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises was introduced, and the opportunities for state-owned assets reform were laid out in three dimensions.
Market review
Market Comments: Positive signals reappear, the market is in danger, and confidence in doing more is expected to increase.
Macro view: Front page of Securities Daily: Take eight measures to maintain the stable and healthy development of the stock market.
Semiconductor industry: policy boost+technology iteration, domestic equipment ushers in "core" opportunities
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 265.25, up 0.51%; Copper 48260, up 0.81%; Rubber 1 1380, up by 0.71%; The PVC index was 7295, down 0.61%; Zheng Chun 3348, up 2.54%; Shanghai Aluminum 14490, down 0.03%; Shanghai nickel 1 12200, up1.51%; Iron ore 507.0, up1.50%; Coke is 2669.5, up1.23%; Crude oil 49 1.4, down1.36%; Rebar 4428, up 3.51%; Coking coal 1320.5, up 3.12%; Hot coil 4349, up 4.14%; Rubber board 162.55, up by 4.47%; PTA 7690, up 3.69%; Ferrosilicon was 6832, down 3.96%.
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5862, up 0.07%; Corn 1877, up by 0.27%; Palm oil 4944, up 0.65%; Cotton 16965, up1.34%; Zhengmai 26 12, up by 0.35%; White sugar 4933, up 0.59%; Apple 1 1894, up 1.29%.
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 14, down 0.22%; USD/RMB 6.86, down 0.24%; USD/HK$ 7.85, up 0.0 1%.
Main recommendations
1, the issuance of nearly one trillion local special bonds has accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound.
Event: On August 14, the Ministry of Finance issued "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Issuing Special Bonds of Local Governments" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), requiring financial departments at all levels to speed up the preparatory work for the issuance of special bonds with the corresponding project authorities, and the projects will be ready in batches. The "Opinions" suggest that provincial financial departments should reasonably grasp the rhythm of issuing special bonds, scientifically arrange the issuance plans for the next few months of this year, especially in August and September, and speed up the issuance progress. The progress of local government bond issuance this year is not restricted by the quarterly balance requirement. In principle, the proportion of new special bonds issued by all localities before the end of September is not less than 80%, and the remaining issuance amount is mainly 5438+ 10 in June.
Comments: Regarding the release of the Opinions, the Ministry of Finance indicated that it would speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds, aiming at giving full play to the role of special bonds in stabilizing investment, expanding domestic demand and filling shortcomings. Accelerating the issuance of local government bonds is not only conducive to alleviating the shortage of funds of local governments, but also conducive to enhancing the investment and financing capabilities of local governments, so as to stimulate the economy and expand consumption; At the same time, it is also conducive to alleviating the tight capital position of financial institutions, maintaining the stability of the capital chain of financial institutions and reducing financial risks. With the implementation of policies and the acceleration of project approval, infrastructure is expected to stabilize. The important direction of infrastructure development mainly comes from special debt, and the three areas of land storage debt, highway debt and shed-to-shed debt in the special project are all important sources of funds for infrastructure. Judging from the issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment may bottom out and remain at 13%- 15% for the whole year.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. The "Double Hundred Actions" plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises was introduced, and the opportunities for state-owned assets reform were laid out in three dimensions.
Event: Recently, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing, and the the State Council State-owned Enterprise Reform Leading Group decided to select more than18-2020 central enterprise subsidiaries and more than 100 local state-owned backbone enterprises to implement the "Hundred Flowers Action" of state-owned enterprise reform.
Comments: "Hundred Flowers Action" is a major measure of state-owned assets reform this year. The obvious increase in the number of pilot enterprises shows the remarkable characteristics of this reform, that is, from top to bottom, from spontaneous to all-round development, from pilot to all-round promotion. The continuous advancement of state-owned enterprise reform has also injected vitality into the development of state-owned enterprises. From the perspective of capital market, the promotion of "Let a Hundred Flowers Bloom" is expected to become the theme catalyst of the new round of state-owned enterprise reform. Under the catalysis of previous rounds of policies, the leading target has performed well. This year marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up, and the theme of state-owned enterprise reform is expected to gain more policy support, which will become an important foundation to support the recovery of confidence in the A-share market. Investors can lay out the theme of state-owned enterprise reform in the second half of the year from three main lines. First, the pilot reform of central enterprises and some local mixed reforms suggest paying attention to oil and gas and military industry; Second, the reform of state-owned capital investment and operating companies. In addition to SDIC and COFCO, which are pilot projects for the reform of central enterprises, local state-owned assets are also accelerating the reorganization and formation of state-owned capital investment and operation companies; The third is the strategic reorganization of central enterprises, and it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies in the fields of electrical equipment, automobiles, chemicals and electric power-related groups.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
1, market comments: Positive signals reappear, the market is in crisis, and confidence in doing more is expected to improve.
On Monday, the market bottomed out, and the volume of transactions still shrank. Disk observation, communications, telecommunications operations, software services and other sectors led the gains, while textiles and clothing, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2698.47 points, with an increase of1.1%,while the Shenzhen Component Index reported 84 14. 15 points, with an increase of 0.68%. Chuangzhi Bao 1435.69 points, with an increase of 0. 10%. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out and closed down for five consecutive days. No investors generally expect pessimism, but the prospects are bright. Combined with the recent warming of policy news, the market valuation is approaching the bottom of history. Based on the medium and long term, some high-quality companies in the current market already have good investment value, and the medium and long-term investment can be arranged in batches on dips. In operation, it is suggested to maintain a neutral position, adopt a strategy of high selling and low sucking, settle high varieties on rallies, and pay attention to varieties with clear performance growth and reasonable valuation on dips. It is suggested to pay attention to insurance, petroleum service equipment, electronic information, software services and the reform of state-owned enterprises. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
2. Macro perspective: the front page of Securities Daily: Take eight measures to maintain the stable and healthy development of the stock market.
At present, under the condition of low market valuation and relatively loose funds, the stock market can launch a series of measures that are beneficial to both the present and the long term: First, encourage financial listed companies to implement employee stock ownership plans and release reform dividends. The second is to encourage state-controlled listed companies to buy back shares. The third is to encourage listed companies to conduct mergers and acquisitions. The fourth is to improve the implementation mode of debt-to-equity swap of state-controlled listed companies. The fifth is to increase the long-term funds such as the national social security fund, local pension funds and commercial insurance funds to enter the market. Sixth, vigorously develop private equity funds. Seventh, give full play to the role of China securities companies in stabilizing the market. Eighth, opening wider to the outside world and speeding up the implementation of the policy of relaxing the ratio of foreign shares in the securities industry. (Securities Daily)
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
3. Semiconductor industry: policy boost+technology iteration, domestic equipment meets the "core" opportunity.
Domestic semiconductor equipment is in an opportunity period of development for three main reasons: 1). Driven by the demand in emerging fields such as automobile electronics and industrial internet, the development of semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover; 2), the national policy continues to increase, the second phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund is raising funds, and domestic enterprises are expected to fully benefit; 3) Iteration of capacity expansion and superposition technology between silicon wafer factory and wafer factory, domestic semiconductor equipment enterprises are expected to achieve a breakthrough in 8-inch semiconductor equipment and shorten the gap with foreign companies. Based on the above analysis: policy boost+technology iteration, domestic equipment faces the opportunity of "core".
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
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